In this season of peace, cricket could become the spoiler. <br /> <br /> The fault lies not with the game or its practitioners. It is a delightful sport, capable of arousing emotions even in the most die-hard cynic of the game. It has spawned legends, created folk tales out of ordinary mortals. And unlike football, it has never been a cause of war between two nations. This time it could. <br /> <br /> The reason is simple. It is a game which has sparked turbulence between the two nations in the past, pitted communities against each other in India, triggered rumours, violent debates on and off the streets. Cricket between India and Pakistan have always been fought as a battle, keenly watched, passionately followed and fiercely contested. As long as it remained out of the gambit of politics between the two nations, the fallout was limited. The stakes are high this time. Cricket has been turned into a Confidence Building Measure between the two nuclear powers at war, directly or by proxy, for more than half a century. It is a diplomatic faux pas. Cricket should have been treated as a game and nothing more. But carried away more by emotions than pragmatism, the mandarins have decided to play ball which could violently undo the atmosphere of peace. <br /> <br /> What the cricket board officials and those in the South Block are not willing to accept is that Pakistan is not a place where cricket, or for that matter any other sports, should be played. In the past few years, Pakistan has become a nursery of terror, isolating the civil society into mere exhibits of progress and democracy, islands of civility amidst jackboots and AK-47s. The single-most threat that the cricketers and peace in the process, face is from terrorists who, despite President Musharraf's assurance, are as free as ever. Karachi is one of the venues of the five-day match. It is also one of the most dangerous places on earth. Karachi is today a hub of terrorist and religious extremist networks. Karachi is where al Qaida regrouped after September 11 and merged with local terrorist and religious extremist groups like Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar Jhangvi. Though most of these organizations, involved in hundreds of killings in the past two years, have been banned, they continue to operate under different names. Even President Musharraf is not safe in Karachi. Religious groups who were violently opposed to his appeasement of the US made the first known attempt on his life in Karachi in April 2002. The December 2003 assassination attempts (three in all) showed that the groups were not only alive and present but gathering strength despite the official clampdown. The methodology of assassination attempts-suicide attacks-showed the desperation and sophistication of the groups involved. Karachi, in fact, has witnessed quite a few suicide bombings in the recent past and there is no tangible reason to believe that there could not be a similar attempt when the Indian cricket team is staying in Karachi's Sheraton Hotel. <br /> <br /> This is a real threat. It would be foolhardy to dismiss this threat as a routine threat perception issued by intelligence agencies. It is the ground reality in Karachi or for that matter in most parts of Pakistan. There are several pointers to this threat. The leaders of religious groups, despite several ban orders, are free and preaching hatred. The seminaries that spawn violent minds are running without any hindrance. Weapons are plenty in supply. So is money. So is the support from the ISI and Pakistan Army. An alliance that keeps the King's Party floating in Islamabad is made up of leaders who flit between jihad and democracy. Security and intelligence agencies are infiltrated by extremist elements. Some of the suspects detained in the assassination case are members of police and intelligence agencies. The Army has a sizeable presence of extremist elements. A travel advisory issued by the US on January 30, 2004, has this to say: ``Al-Qaida and Taliban elements continue to operate inside Pakistan, particularly along the porous border region. Their presence, coupled with that of indigenous sectarian and militant groups in Pakistan, requires that all Americans in or traveling through Pakistan take appropriate security measures. Continuing tensions in the Middle East also increase the possibility of violence. As security has tightened at official U.S. facilities, terrorists and their sympathizers have demonstrated the willingness and capability to attack more vulnerable targets, including facilities where Americans are generally known to congregate or visit, such as hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools, or outdoor recreation events.'' Nothing has changed in Pakistan for the world to take comfort. <br /> <br /> Given the situation, it is important to understand and realize what might happen to the visiting Indian cricket team. The following scenarios are probable. First, there could be an attack on the team while traveling to and from the stadium. This is the most vulnerable point in terms of security. A moving vehicle on a public thoroughfare is difficult to be isolated and protected but easy to be a target of a lone suicide attacker. This could be a multiple attack, like the last attempt on President Musharraf. The movement of the cricket team would be no secret and the route that they would take from either the Marriot Hotel or Sheraton Hotel to the pitch would not be as heavily guarded as the Presidential route. Since the match would last five days, it would be easier for the terrorist groups to plan the attack on the third or the fourth day. A suicide attack, as the past incidents revealed, could inflict heavy damages. Even a failed attempt would frighten the players and instigate violent reactions at home. But there more a chance of such suicide attacks being successful given the increasing sophistication and expertise on the part of the groups. These groups have lot at stake. For them, it would be a chance to prove the President wrong, reverse his peace overtures, spark off tensions, and create turmoil within Pakistan. An Indian cricketer would be a perfect target for a terrorist group bent upon pulling the rug from under the feet of President Musharraf. <br /> <br /> Take the scenario forward and it would not be difficult to realize the enormity of the consequences such an attack would unleash in the subcontinent. The attack would trigger a wave of violent protests in India and given the emotional appeal the game holds, it would cut across all political lines. In the emotionally charged situation, no one would pause to contemplate that Pakistan too is a victim of terror. With popular protests rising, it would be suicidal for any political party to preach patience. A counter action would become inevitable. The train, bus and the flights would come to a halt. The troops would begin moving in. Each side would bay for blood. Communities would be divided. Extremists on both sides would flaunt their spears and guns. Peaceniks would withdraw into seminar rooms. Peace would be out for duck. <br /> <em>Email ID:
[email protected]</em> <br /> <br /> <em>* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Observer Research Foundation.In this season of peace, cricket could become the spoiler. <br /> <br /> The fault lies not with the game or its practitioners. It is a delightful sport, capable of arousing emotions even in the most die-hard cynic of the game. It has spawned legends, created folk tales out of ordinary mortals. And unlike football, it has never been a cause of war between two nations. This time it could. <br /> <br /> The reason is simple. It is a game which has sparked turbulence between the two nations in the past, pitted communities against each other in India, triggered rumours, violent debates on and off the streets. Cricket between India and Pakistan have always been fought as a battle, keenly watched, passionately followed and fiercely contested. As long as it remained out of the gambit of politics between the two nations, the fallout was limited. The stakes are high this time. Cricket has been turned into a Confidence Building Measure between the two nuclear powers at war, directly or by proxy, for more than half a century. It is a diplomatic faux pas. Cricket should have been treated as a game and nothing more. But carried away more by emotions than pragmatism, the mandarins have decided to play ball which could violently undo the atmosphere of peace. <br /> <br /> What the cricket board officials and those in the South Block are not willing to accept is that Pakistan is not a place where cricket, or for that matter any other sports, should be played. In the past few years, Pakistan has become a nursery of terror, isolating the civil society into mere exhibits of progress and democracy, islands of civility amidst jackboots and AK-47s. The single-most threat that the cricketers and peace in the process, face is from terrorists who, despite President Musharraf's assurance, are as free as ever. Karachi is one of the venues of the five-day match. It is also one of the most dangerous places on earth. Karachi is today a hub of terrorist and religious extremist networks. Karachi is where al Qaida regrouped after September 11 and merged with local terrorist and religious extremist groups like Sipah-e-Sahaba and Lashkar Jhangvi. Though most of these organizations, involved in hundreds of killings in the past two years, have been banned, they continue to operate under different names. Even President Musharraf is not safe in Karachi. Religious groups who were violently opposed to his appeasement of the US made the first known attempt on his life in Karachi in April 2002. The December 2003 assassination attempts (three in all) showed that the groups were not only alive and present but gathering strength despite the official clampdown. The methodology of assassination attempts-suicide attacks-showed the desperation and sophistication of the groups involved. Karachi, in fact, has witnessed quite a few suicide bombings in the recent past and there is no tangible reason to believe that there could not be a similar attempt when the Indian cricket team is staying in Karachi's Sheraton Hotel. <br /> <br /> This is a real threat. It would be foolhardy to dismiss this threat as a routine threat perception issued by intelligence agencies. It is the ground reality in Karachi or for that matter in most parts of Pakistan. There are several pointers to this threat. The leaders of religious groups, despite several ban orders, are free and preaching hatred. The seminaries that spawn violent minds are running without any hindrance. Weapons are plenty in supply. So is money. So is the support from the ISI and Pakistan Army. An alliance that keeps the King's Party floating in Islamabad is made up of leaders who flit between jihad and democracy. Security and intelligence agencies are infiltrated by extremist elements. Some of the suspects detained in the assassination case are members of police and intelligence agencies. The Army has a sizeable presence of extremist elements. A travel advisory issued by the US on January 30, 2004, has this to say: ``Al-Qaida and Taliban elements continue to operate inside Pakistan, particularly along the porous border region. Their presence, coupled with that of indigenous sectarian and militant groups in Pakistan, requires that all Americans in or traveling through Pakistan take appropriate security measures. Continuing tensions in the Middle East also increase the possibility of violence. As security has tightened at official U.S. facilities, terrorists and their sympathizers have demonstrated the willingness and capability to attack more vulnerable targets, including facilities where Americans are generally known to congregate or visit, such as hotels, clubs, restaurants, places of worship, schools, or outdoor recreation events.'' Nothing has changed in Pakistan for the world to take comfort. <br /> <br /> Given the situation, it is important to understand and realize what might happen to the visiting Indian cricket team. The following scenarios are probable. First, there could be an attack on the team while traveling to and from the stadium. This is the most vulnerable point in terms of security. A moving vehicle on a public thoroughfare is difficult to be isolated and protected but easy to be a target of a lone suicide attacker. This could be a multiple attack, like the last attempt on President Musharraf. The movement of the cricket team would be no secret and the route that they would take from either the Marriot Hotel or Sheraton Hotel to the pitch would not be as heavily guarded as the Presidential route. Since the match would last five days, it would be easier for the terrorist groups to plan the attack on the third or the fourth day. A suicide attack, as the past incidents revealed, could inflict heavy damages. Even a failed attempt would frighten the players and instigate violent reactions at home. But there more a chance of such suicide attacks being successful given the increasing sophistication and expertise on the part of the groups. These groups have lot at stake. For them, it would be a chance to prove the President wrong, reverse his peace overtures, spark off tensions, and create turmoil within Pakistan. An Indian cricketer would be a perfect target for a terrorist group bent upon pulling the rug from under the feet of President Musharraf. <br /> <br /> Take the scenario forward and it would not be difficult to realize the enormity of the consequences such an attack would unleash in the subcontinent. The attack would trigger a wave of violent protests in India and given the emotional appeal the game holds, it would cut across all political lines. In the emotionally charged situation, no one would pause to contemplate that Pakistan too is a victim of terror. With popular protests rising, it would be suicidal for any political party to preach patience. A counter action would become inevitable. The train, bus and the flights would come to a halt. The troops would begin moving in. Each side would bay for blood. Communities would be divided. Extremists on both sides would flaunt their spears and guns. Peaceniks would withdraw into seminar rooms. Peace would be out for duck. <br /> <em>Email ID:
[email protected]</em> <br /> <br /> <em>* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of the Observer Research Foundation.
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