The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) has indeed traveled far in the last 25 years and has emerged after the Congress and the BJP the third largest national party with a vote percentage of roughly 10. In 2007, many experts, analysts and political observers were of the view that the BSP has finally arrived and her social engineering formula is going to catapult her to Delhi’s throne soon.
On May 13 this year, Ms Mayawati would complete 3 years in office as the Chief Minister and from all available accounts, she may complete the full term if she decides to do so. She has the absolute majority which she won on the plank of ‘Sarvjan’. But there are serious doubts on her journey to Delhi.
Though the elections for the Assembly are due in May, 2012, Ms Mayawati, for tactical reasons, may like to test the BSP’s acceptability among the electorate in UP and also with the objective of springing a surprise on her political rivals like the Congress.
While the BSP got an absolute majority and subsequently went on to win the majority of Lok Sabha and Assembly by-elections, but its performance in 2009 general elections with 21 seats and a popular vote of 6.17 per cent left much to desire. Since its inception in 1984, the BSP had been gaining strength and it was often speculated as when the BSP would capture political power in Delhi.
After the setback in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the BSP supremo was initially trying to figure out what went wrong. Since then she has been busy recasting her strategy and has revised much of the 2007 Assembly approach and political path. She realised that her core Dalit constituency was drifting away from her. Dalits, particularly those not belonging to her own caste, were moving towards the Congress whose young leader Rahul Gandhi was wooing them with mission and determination.
In her wisdom, Ms Mayawati has apparently decided that she should retain her core constituency hoping that everything else would fall in place. Now, she is working towards it. The BSP celebrated its 25 years with a massive rally on March 15 in Lucknow where its leader Ms Mayawati was felicitated with a garland made of currency notes of Rs. 1000 and Rs. 500 denomination. It created a controversy and she remained in media focus for some time.
She also declared that her one time trouble shooter, architect of Brahmin-Dalit alliance and often projected as number two in the party hierarchy -- Satish Chandra Mishra -- does not enjoy her confidence as in the past. So called demotion of Mishra is essentially meant for the consumption of her core Dalit constituency. He continues to enjoy her confidence as he continues to act her confidante and consultant on money matters.
Now the big issue is whether her strategy of concentrating on her core constituency is enough to reemerge as the principal pole rather the most important political player in the biggest state. Will she be able to retain absolute power in the next Assembly election in 2012 or whenever she decides to hold them? This is the crucial question confronting the discerning analysts and experts.
The political battle lines are beginning to emerge. In 2007, the principal contenders for the throne in Lucknow were the BSP, the SP, BJP, Congress and the others like the RLD. Now, the order has changed with the Congress emerging as one of the most formidable challenger to Ms Mayawati. The SP, which had retained its vote percentage in the last Assembly elections and had lost marginally in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, appears to be slipping to the third position.
The Congress got 12.04 per cent votes in 2004 managing 9 Lok Sabha seats. In 2007 Assembly elections, its vote percentage slipped to 8.84 and it won only 22 Assembly seats. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, the Congress percentage jumped to 18.25 per cent and it went to win 21 seats in the Lok Sabha.
The BSP got 24.67 per cent votes in 2004 general election and won 19 seats. The Dalit party’s performance improved dramatically. In the run-up to the Assembly election, she changed her tack from Bahujan to Sarvjan and abandoned aggressive postures against the high castes. In 2007 Assembly election, the BSP received 30.43 per cent votes and won an absolute majority in the Assembly by winning 206 seats. Unfortunately, its vote percentage slipped to 27.42 per cent in 2009 Lok Sabha polls when the BSP won 20 seats.
The SP had a massive percentage of 26.74 when it won 35 Lok Sabha seats in 2004. In 2007 Assembly elections, the SP, suffering from anti-incumbency factor, could win 97 seats with 26.07 per cent of popular votes. In 2009 Lok Sabha polls, its percentage of votes went down by 2.81 compared to 2007 when it could win only 23 seats. Technically, it remained at number one in number of seats but the Congress had closed the gap by winning 21 seats.
The BJP has been sliding fast on the popular front. In 2004 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party had 10 seats with 22.17 per cent of votes. In 2007 Assembly elections, the percentage of popular votes was reduced to 19.62 per cent but in 2009 Lok Sabha polls it came to fourth position in number of seats. Even the number of popular votes came down to 17.50 per cent.
Undoubtedly, Ms Mayawati in coming months and years would try to convince the electorate that she means business and would try to deliver on the governance front, but popular perceptions have their own dynamics. She has embarked upon the confrontationist course which paid her rich dividends in the past.
On April 14, Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi is flagging off 14 simultaneous yatras which will cover the entire state and carry the message of the Congress and UPA’s achievement and mark the 20 years which the state of Uttar Pradesh has existed without the Congress rule. These yatras would conclude in Allahabad on November 15 on Pandit Nehru’s birth day and are aimed at mobilizing the party machinery. On the same day, she has asked her party workers and leaders to hold protest rallies against Women Reservation in Parliament and State legislatures.
From her behaviour, statements and pronouncements, it is evident that she is treating the Congress as her main political adversary and she is leaving nothing to chance to counter the GOP’s political advances. The coming months would decide the contours of the battle and who wins the people’s confidence would be determined by Ms Mayawati’s acts of commission and omission.
Satish Misra is a Senior Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation and can be contacted [email protected]
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