Intelligence is the first line of defence in any war, be it a conventional war or a war against terrorism. The American security apparatus has readjusted itself well, in almost all the areas of modern warfare in the post cold war era. However, the recent American failures indicate that still much needs to be done in of the areas of modern day warfare, and that is intelligence gathering.
The performance of the American intelligence agencies during the last few years invites much of the introspection within the Bush administration. Apart from catching Saddam alive, the American intelligence agencies have failed miserably on all accounts. The most glaring examples are, the 'non existence of the WMDs in Iraq', the failure to detect attack on the World Trade Center (9/11), and failure in catching Osama bin Laden and Mulla Omar.
Probably, all these reasons have led to the resignation of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) chief George J. Tenet and clandestine services Chief James L. Pavitt. As per the official announcement both of them have resigned due to the personal reasons. However, these resignations have come just five months before the US Presidential elections, particularly when Bush's popularity ratings are slipping rapidly in the wake of Iraq debacle, hence; the reasons quoted for the resignations are unconvincing.
This significant move at too important a time has probably emerged out of personal considerations and Bush feels that he has to have someone to blame for the Iraq fiasco. Maybe, he feels that the current intelligence network has failed to address the challenges of the 21st century.
Interestingly, George Tenet as a director CIA has very less say in overall intelligence gathering. The current American intelligence network consists of various intelligence-gathering agencies. Apart from CIA various other agencies like defence intelligence agency, national security agency, department of defence and various branches of armed forces are having there own intelligence apparatus. All these intelligence agencies still work on the philosophy and practices of cold war era intelligence paradigm.
Even today the secretary of defence owns 80 percent of the intelligence budget and controls almost half the intelligence agencies. It's difficult to understand that the same Bush administration, which has invested so much in fighting terrorism, has failed to appreciate the changing requirements of the intelligence gathering. Bush has not asked Rumsfeld to resign even after the Abu Gharib prison incidence hence its impossible that he would force him to resign for intelligence failure. Perhaps Bush thought it wise to blame it on Tenet.
It is alleged that Tenet resigned in haste because a Senate Intelligence Committee report, is due out this month, which has blamed CIA for its errors in its prewar judgments. Now it is a known fact that the CIA's prewar intelligence on Iraq's alleged weapons of mass destruction was not true, particularly its assessment of Iraq's biological and chemical weapons capabilities.
Tenet has served under two presidents from different parties and was appointed as Director CIA by President Bill Clinton in 1997. Last few months of his current assignment have been really turbulent. In April, the panel investigating the September 11 attacks criticized the intelligence community and faulted Tenet for not having a management strategy to battle terrorism before the 9/11 attacks. Also Tenet took responsibility for a wrong input to a later-discredited line in Bush's 2003 State of the Union address that alleged that Iraq was trying to buy uranium from Africa.
Unfortunately Iraq war has overshadowed the American politics so much that the good work done by Tenet towards intelligence gathering on Iran and Libya's nuclear programme remains unrecognized. This entire resignation episode appears to be an attempt to make Tenet and CIA a scapegoat since Bush has got to have some body to blame without disturbing his own coterie. It is sad that many more people who are responsible for the mess that the Bush administration has got into, are left scot-free and only Tenet & Co are being hanged.
However, it is a fact that CIA lacked in not having enough good human intelligence on the ground. They placed too much credence on technology. They did not have enough human spies in Iraq and failed to penetrate Saddam's inner circle. Naturally the conclusions on WMD's were based on hearsay evidence. CIA failed to appreciate that the world of intelligence is a uniquely human endeavor, and technology is only a tool for gathering intelligence and not an end in itself.
It appears that the CIA failed more in intelligence analysis than in intelligence gathering. They had sufficient knowledge about al Qaeda activities pre September 11 attacks but never gave much importance to it. But in case of Iraq it appears that they read too much in the intelligence briefs about the Iraq's WMD capabilities. Or was Iraq a case of Bush family's fixation towards Saddam? Normally, a good general gathers intelligence about the enemy prior to forming a strategy but in case of Iraq probably, CIA was asked to 'superimpose' the intelligence on the already formulated strategy. In that case if Tenet had 'sexed up' the intelligence then why blame him?
Ajey Lele is a defence analyst * Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.
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