The Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal multimodal transport agreement (BBINMVA) for easing cross border movement of people and goods signed in Thimphu on June 15 is a welcome step forward to regional integration.
However, it is just a beginning and not a time for jubilation as there is plenty of work pending before the agreement can be actually implemented. Expectation is that the member countries will take the necessary steps to enable early implementation of the agreement.
On June 15 transport ministers of Bangladesh, Bhutan, India and Nepal (BBIN) met in Thimphu to finalise the Motor Vehicles Agreement (MVA) for the Regulation of Passenger, Personal and Cargo Vehicular Traffic between the BBIN countries. Earlier, a draft agreement was agreed by all the four countries in a conference of transport secretaries in February this year at Kolkata. The BBINMVA is designed on the lines of the SAARC MVA, which was set to be signed during the 18th South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation Summit in November 2014 at Kathmandu but was suspended after Pakistan's objection. This agreement removes all obstacles for movement of vehicles within the member countries. Following this agreement, a vehicle from one country can easily go to another without much hindrance. But vehicles will be allowed to ply only on the stipulated routes and will have to attain specific permits. Also, drivers of these vehicles will have to carry valid passport.
BBIN countries will tend to benefit economically as trade and commerce between them will get a major boost. Intra-regional trade suffered due to poor connectivity. Besides, the BBIN MVA has opened new horizon for business among the member countries, like transport and tourism. Economic interdependence had existed among these countries for centuries as most of the region was one country before partition of British in India in 1947. Partition disrupted the lines of communication, affecting the economy of the region. South Asia today is home to one of the poorest people in the world with significant population living below $1 a day. Also, it is one of the least integrated regions globally.
The BBIN countries deserve credit for taking this move to restore the old linkages. The countries also need appreciation for thinking of something which is regional in approach despite disappointments with the SAARC. Though SAARC was established in 1985 regionalism could not take off in South Asia in the proper sense. Reasons that prevented growth of regionalism in South Asia are: the countries' zealous protectionist notion of sovereignty and territorial integrity; dispute between India and Pakistan and apprehensions of smaller countries about India. The present agreement shows a change of mindset of the countries towards regionalism.
However, India's role cannot be overlooked in attaining the present success. Considering India's huge geographical, political and economic position in South Asia, no regional cooperation will be successful without the country's cooperation. After the failure of the SAARC MVA to be signed in Kathmandu, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi categorically explicated his intention of realising the regional connectivity either within SAARC or outside it. Indeed, BBIN MVA is a major diplomatic victory for India.
To sustain the present momentum countries should work on resolving some of the gaps in the treaty so that it does not face the same fate of the SAARC. The agreement does not give many details about route maps, location of permitted rest or recreation places, tolls and check-posts. For smooth functioning of the agreement, negotiations on these issues need to be concluded at the earliest. Again, the agreement does not talk of issues like fees, service charges and administrative costs and has left it to be resolved bilaterally. Such gaps raises doubts about seriousness of the member countries, and some analysts on the subject suggest that the present agreement is nothing more than a symbolic one.
Meanwhile, the joint statement issued at the meeting of the transport ministers stipulated six months to complete all the negotiations for the protocols and to upgrade the necessary infrastructure for implementation of the agreement. The statement suggests that agreement/protocols could be bilateral, trilateral or quadrilateral. To transport analysts signing of the protocol will be the major challenge.
Again, upgradation of the infrastructure will be a major challenge as it is both time-consuming and expensive. The joint statement indicated that development of the infrastructure will require $8billion worth of investment. The agreement suggests the cost for implementation of the agreement will be borne by the respective countries. Since most of the countries are poor there is apprehension whether they will be ready to spend that amount. Though India is giving assistance in developing infrastructure in the region but it will not be sufficient. Asian Development Bank and World Bank proposed to give $500 million and $1 billion respectively for development of infrastructure, but the money is not enough.
Also, since there is no clarity on the issue of transit, many in Bangladesh feel that the agreement is not in that country's interest and they are propagating that it will give transit to India indirectly. Transit is a sensitive issue in Bangladesh and there is public resistance against the agreement. Such resistance might create obstacle for realisation of the treaty as government of Bangladesh might not be able to overlook popular opinion for a long time.
BBINMVA is an encouraging development that aims at shared growth and prosperity of the region. For success of the BBINMVA, the member countries should remain consistent and resolve the issues on timely basis for fulfilling the vision of prosperity of the region.
(The writer is a Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Delhi).
Courtesy: southasiamonitor.org
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