Of the five election-bound states - Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Goa and Manipur - UP occupies the pride of place because the outcome there may have its impact on politics at the national level. It may provide an insight into what may happen when parliamentary polls will be held in 2014. After all, this state alone sends 80 MPs to Parliament. Being the most populous state of the country, it will have polling in seven phases whereas in the other four states it will be a single-phase affair.
The party in power, the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP), won a comfortable majority in the 403-member UP Assembly in 2007 when it formed its government. The BSP was able to defeat the incumbent Samajwadi Party (SP) of Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav on the plank of restoration of law and order. It was widely known that the party cadres of the SP were unruly, and people were getting extensively alienated. The BSP supremo, Ms Mayawati, realised that the emphasis on the SP's negative role alone was not enough. Equally, she realised that the support of Dalits, OBCs and sections of Muslims to her party was not enough for her party to romp home with a comfortable majority. She, therefore, hit upon the idea of "Sarvajan" support, particularly the upper castes headed by Brahmins. They were successfully wooed with the help of her deputy, Mr Satish Mishra. Mr Mishra was also Ms Mayawati's lawyer in many of her cases pertaining to property and income tax disputes. He worked hard for ascertaining support from Brahmins and other forward castes.
However, the anti-incumbency factor has set in fairly strongly in UP. The numerous statues of Ms Mayawati, her mentor Kanshi Ram and the party's election symbol, the elephant, erected in many parks and at public places throughout the state, reminded people as evidence of her lavishness and self-adoration at the cost of public money. It is ironic that the very same statues have been ordered to be covered by the Election Commission on the ground that they deprive the other contesting parties of a level-playing field. The opposition parties, particularly the SP, the Congress and the BJP, are targeting the BSP on these issues relentlessly.
The 206 seats which the BSP got in 2007 will, most probably, remain a distant and unattainable target. The SP is hoping to replace the BSP and capture power. Mr Mulayam Singh Yadav's son, Mr Akhilesh Yadav, who has been designated as the leader of the SP in the state, has been actively carrying out an aggressive electioneering throughout the state. The SP has the advantage of a fairly large percentage of Muslim voters in its favour. It is possible that at the end of the day, the SP will have a larger number of seats than the BSP. However, the SP is unlikely to reach the magic figure to form its government on its own.
The Congress election campaign has been vigorous in the state with Mr Rahul Gandhi being on the forefront. He has been stressing the non-performance of the governments headed by both the SP and the BSP, which, one after the other, have been ruling the state for a long time. The Congress position has improved considerably after it worked out an electoral deal with Mr Ajit Singh's RLD. However, the electoral understanding between the two parties is more important for the parliamentary elections due in 2014.
In the Assembly elections it remains to be seen whether both the Congress and the RLD are able to get the sufficient number of seats to meet the shortage of seats the SP may face in its efforts to reach the magic figure of 50 per cent of the House's strength to capture power.
The BJP is having problems of its own, particularly after the controversy with the induction of former minister B.S. Kushwaha, expelled from the BSP. The BJP may register a marginal increase in the seats it secured in 2007.
In any case, the picture in UP remains unclear, with no party or no combination of parties being assured of forming the next government in March.
The adjacent state of Uttarakhand seems to be having the anti-incumbency factor working against the BJP. The erstwhile Chief Minister has been at the centre of a controversy over the award of power projects in the state. Nevertheless, it is likely that the BJP may come back to power in Uttarakhand since the position of the opposition parties is not strong there.
In Punjab, the Akali Dal-BJP government headed by Mr Parkash Singh Badal is reeling under accusations of corruption and irregularities. The indications are that the Congress party will be able to capture a majority of the seats and form its government.
In Goa and Manipur, the results may not change the situation as it exists at present.
For all practical purposes, especially from the point of view of the parliamentary elections in 2014, only the poll results in UP and to some extent in Punjab will be relevant.
West Bengal had its elections in 2011, and out of 294 seats, the Trinamool Congress (TMC) won 184 seats while the Congress, its alliance partner, got 42. The attitude of the TMC, which formed its government in West Bengal after displacing the CPM, which had been in power continuously for nearly four decades, may be far more relevant in the formation of the next government at the Centre after the 2014 elections. Ms Mamata Bannerji of the TMC has been an extremely difficult alliance partner. She has no qualms about openly declaring that she is prepared to part ways with the Congress party. She would not mind even a mid-term poll before 2014 since her calculation is that she may be able to improve her party's present position - the number of seats the TMC has in Parliament.
(The writer is an Advisor to Observer Research Foundation. He is a former Governor of UP and West Bengal)
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