By announcing the American decision to 'nominate' Pakistan as a 'major non-NATO ally', US Secretary of State Colin Powell may have done a calculated disservice to the ongoing peace process between Islamabad and New Delhi. His reference to greater military-to-military cooperation with Islamabad may have stirred, if not disturbed, the new and unprecedented bonhomie on the streets of India and Pakistan, as is being witnessed during the ongoing cricket series between the two nations. Coupled with President Musharaff's ill-timed reference to the oft-repeated claim of Kashmir being the 'core issue', Powell's announcement seems to position India-Pakistan relations, or the continued absence of it, as part of a greater American strategy for the region and the rest of the world. <br /> <br /> Much as Powell's unscheduled and unexplained sub-continental visit could be related to the revived hunt for Osama bin-Laden, it came close to three other developments involving India. One was Russian Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov's proposal to call an early meeting with his counterparts from India and China, to take the 'three-nation cooperation' forward. The other involved the Indian initiative that could be interpreted as hopes for a possible 'NAM for the new millennium', in the company of Brazil and South Africa. The 'IBSA meet' in Delhi, involving political, economic and military cooperation among the three, promptly ruled out membership for other 'interested nations' like Russia and China. Yet, followed as it was by an Iranian delegation's visit to New Delhi, it may have added to what could be construed as confusing signals emanating from New Delhi. In turn, the US may have hastened a process that was waiting to be unveiled at a slower pace. <br /> <br /> India is on election mode, and at the cross-roads, in a way. Coupled with the intermittent and at times unfocussed domestic fire, emanating as much from the centre-right as from centre-left, announcement may trigger a re-think on India's 'America policy'. Granting the American efforts for normalization of India-Pakistan relations, the real intent and content of Powell's announcement thus begs a convincing explanation. In a way, this could trigger a fresh and possibly forgotten bout of arms race in South Asia, and cannot be explained away by the US war on terrorism with Pakistan as an ally. <br /> <br /> In the post-Cold War era, particularly in the more recent years after the posts-9/11 war in Afghanistan, there is an increasing global interest in projecting China as more than a regional power. Beijing itself seems less than comfortable with the designation as an 'emerging super-power'. Coming as it does after the US letting the NATO allies to take charge of troubled Afghanistan, Pakistan's designation as a 'non-NATO ally' may thus mean more than what Powell says. It may also be one way to try re-rally 'freedom-loving' European allies around the US against an 'anticipated evil' in the place of an 'exited evil', after the recent 'aberration' of the 'Iraq War era'. Yet, the temptation for joining a South Asian arms race, as manufacturing nations, could be too much for some West European allies to resist, but that again could be built into the American agenda, as well. <br /> <br /> Starting with the Cancun conference, or even from a slightly earlier period, India's priorities in global politics and economy have begun making multilateralism a functional, if not favoured, option. These priorities are rooted more in ground realities, and in an overall philosophy of peace and growth for the 'global village' -- and not certainly in any inclusivist or exclusivist strategy. In simple terms, such inclusivist-exclusivist strategies continue to mean that "if you are not my friend (read: ally), you are my enemy". That way, 'multipolarism' too could be an old answer to an older problem. It is only in the absence of fresh ideas and fresher efforts - and willingness to accept them both -- that 'multi-polarity', if at all, is being proffered as the great new alternative to 'civilisational clash', for filling the vacuum in the 'balance of forces' caused by the exit of 'Soviet communism'. The US would like to 'manage' friends and foes, real and imaginary, leaving terrorism as the only cause for the world to fight against, unitedly and under its command and control. Or, so it seems. <br /> <br /> Colin Powell has now sent out a signal, and the ball is as much as in India's court as in Pakistan's. Both may have been asked to choose between a common neighbour and a futuristic ally. Pakistan has all along yielded to the temptations offered by locational, and consequent strategic advantages. The experience of the Nineties in the neighbourhood could add to the temptation, but it could make not just the region, or the rest of the world, but even the very nation, an even more dangerous place to live in, than it already is. Either way, the two nuclear nations in South Asia with a history of animosity could be fighting somebody else's proxy war. In such a scenario, mercenaries as they would be, they may have a heavy price to pay. What more, it's neighbours who may still have the answers to problems relating to peace and prosperity - and not just in the immediate neighbourhood. <br /> <em>Email ID:
[email protected]</em> <br /> <br /> <em>* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.</em>
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