There are only two ways to look at the recent decision of the US administration to arm Pakistan with new weapons. First, as the Bush administration officials have been trying, rather hard, to convince the international community, particularly India, that the weapons they are selling to President Pervez Musharraf's Pakistan are meant to fight terrorism. Second, the weapons package will bolster Pakistan's conventional weapons holding, primarily targeted towards India. It is easy to take sides and proffer convincing arguments to support or counter either of the points. It is therefore essential to test the two premises on the basis of facts which are verifiable.
Facts are as follow. In the current package, the US has decided to sell 2000 TOW-2A missiles for $82 million, eight P-3C aircraft for $970 million, six PHALANX Close-in Weapon Systems for $155 million and about 2700 HF/VHF radio systems for $78 million. The reason for selling the weapons as stated by the US Defence Security Agency (accessed at www.dsca.mil) is that they `` will improve Pakistan's ability to restrict the littoral movement of terrorists along Pakistan's southern border and ensure Pakistan's overall ability to maintain integrity of their borders``.
The weapon characteristics, however, do not seem to match these stated claims. TOW missiles, for instance is designed for anti-armour, anti-bunker, anti-fortification, and anti-amphibious missions. The TOW 2A features a tandem warhead armament system to increase its lethality against tanks configured with explosive reactive armour. The TOW 2B is a fly-over, shoot-down missile with explosively formed penetrator warheads. In other words, the system is designed to attack and defeat tanks and other armoured vehicles. It seems highly improbable therefore that TOW missiles could be an appropriate weapon to be used against terrorists hiding in the mountains of south Waziristan.
According to information gleaned from newspaper reports published since September 11, 2001, it can be established that terrorists from al Qaida and other groups took shelter in cities like Karachi, Peshawar, Quetta and Rawalpindi after the US-led Operation Enduring Freedom began dismantling the terrorist infrastructure in Afghanistan. Most of the terrorists were caught by the Pakistan security forces from these cities, working mainly on the intelligence gathered by US and Pak intelligence agencies. Except for brief shoot-outs, security forces had no difficulty in capturing some of the top leadership of al Qaida. In Waziristan, the situation is different. It is not easy either to gather intelligence or to walk into the area to catch terrorists. The theatre of operation is drastically different in the tribal areas which the terrorist groups are exploiting fully. But it is equally incomprehensible that Pak troops would deploy anti-tank weapons to neutralise terrorist groups for the simple reason that these weapons can inflict an enormous amount of collateral damage, an euphemism conveniently used by the US military whenever they kill civilians.
These 2000 TOW missiles, however, can be effectively used against the Indian troops in a short war.
The most expensive item on the shopping list is the P3 C aircraft which is a land-based, long-range anti-submarine warfare (ASW) patrol aircraft. With an operative range of 17 hours, the aircraft is capable of orbiting near the target for seven hours to a maximum distance of 1850 kms from the home base. The plane has a wide bomb load bay where a wide range of weapons like mines, depth charges and torpedoes can be loaded. The US defence agency says the aircraft ``will improve Pakistan's ability to restrict the littoral movement of terrorists along Pakistan's southern border and ensure Pakistan's overall ability to maintain integrity of their borders''. There are no terrorists on Pakistan's southern borders and nor is there any possibility of any such grouping taking place in the near future. The P3C aircraft, however, has a critical role to play in countering the Indian naval presence in the region.
This acquisition should be seen in the context of another set of weapon systems which the US is supplying to Pakistan-PHALANX Close-in Weapon Systems. This is the second most expensive item on the list-over $25 million a piece, and the most lethal. The Phalanx Close-In Weapon System is a rapid-fire, computer-controlled, radar-guided gun system designed to defeat anti-ship missiles and other close-in air and surface threats. Phalanx automatically carries out functions usually performed by multiple systems -- including search, detection, and threat evaluation, tracking, engagement, and kill assessment. The advanced version has increased ammunition, a high-order-language computer, and expanded radar search and track envelopes to counter a broad spectrum of anti-ship missile threats, including supersonic, high-diving, and manoeuvring sea-skimmers. The US defence agency say by selling this hi-tech weapons system, the US was contributing to ``the foreign policy and national security of the United States by helping to improve the security of a friendly country``.
What the US agency doesn't state is that Pakistan will have no use for such high-tech equipment but against Indian naval ships and other "floaters" in littoral waters which could mean Indian energy assests in the high seas and along the coast. Incidentally, it will be relevant here to note that the concept of Close in Weapon System (CIWS) came about during the India-Pakistan war of 1971 when a Pak sailor tried to protect Pakistan tanker, PNS Dacca, from the Indian anti-ship missile by firing at it.
The only conclusion, which can be drawn from the above analyses, is that Pakistan is steadily improving its naval prowess which indicates a changing strategic plan in the Indian coastal waters. There is a strong possibility that these new set of priorities could include designating Indian energy and nuclear infrastructure which are located in the neighbourhood as high priority targets in the event of a conflict in the future.
This assessment is further fortified by careful analyses of Pakistan's weapons purchases in the recent past. For instance, Pakistan has bought 24 anti-submarine warfare torpedos from Sweden and three anti-submarine warfare helicopters from UK. In 1994, Pakistan signed a contract with a French firm to deliver three Agosta-90B class submarines by 2006. It bought from UK six frigates, 24 surface-to-air missiles Seacat, one BN-2A B Maritime aircraft besides 24 anti-ship missiles SM-39 Exocets from France, 16 anti-ship missiles Saccade from China and 96 torpedos from France. It is therefore quite clear that the fresh set of US weapons will only give an extra edge to Pakistan's efforts to bolster its naval power which is certain to create an imbalance in the conventional maritime power equation in the region.
The author is Senior Fellow, South Asia Programme and Director of Information Services, Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi.
Courtesy: Pioneer, New Delhi, December 18, 2004.
* Views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Observer Research Foundation.
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