From Agra to air-link, it has been one long U-turn for the Pakistani leadership of President Pervez Musharaff. Today, he readily agrees to address peripheral issues affecting relations with India, and has even 'unilaterally' announced the restoration of over-flights for Indian craft. Going a step further, he has mooted the conferment of Nishan-e-Pakistan, the nation's highest civilian title on Prime Minister Vajpayee, if and when the latter manages to normalise ties with Pakistan.
Not much needs to be read into Musharaff's public pronouncements and gestures. Since coming to power, and in addressing bilateral problems with India, he has proved to be one up on his late mentor, Zia-ul-Haq. At the height of the tensions caused by 'Operation Brasstacks', Zia invited himself to a cricket tourney between the two national teams at Jaipur, not far away from the tension-ridden Rajasthan-Sindh border. Musharaff, in his turn, promised the moon on curbing anti-India terrorism, both in public broadcasts and private pronouncements, made to western diplomats last year. While impressing an international audience, he did not convince anyone in India. That remains the situation even now.
If however there is a vital difference between then and now, or between the Agra summit and the present Pakistani pronouncements, it is this. At Agra, Musharaff said Kashmir was the 'core issue', and nothing else could be discussed until the 'core issue' was tackled. Now Pakistan has taken the initiative to address peripheral issues, as suggested by India for and at Agra. From 'Kashmir-Plus other issues', Pakistan has come to discuss 'other issues plus Kashmir'. Or, from 'K-Plus' to 'Plus-K', as India had suggested for long. In real terms, it implies a series of confidence-building measures (CBMs) before taking up 'core issues', including Kashmir.
For all the ceasefire, over-lights and sweet talk from Pakistan, Islamabad has reiterated its known position on the 'Kashmir issue' all over again. Thus, it was Prime Minister Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, who had announced the unilateral ceasefire on the eve of Ramzan, who later referred to the 'Kashmir issue', as well. It is another matter Jamali is an elected Prime Minister of whatever electoral standing, compared to Musharaff, who had usurped political power as a military dictator, before seeking to legitimize it as a half-way house.
Pakistan's political realities dictate that for any arrangement or agreement with India to have a fair chance of success, it needs as much military support as political acceptance. From the Pakistani standpoint, Vajpayee with his idealism and statesmanship may be their best choice for a long time to come, the political ideologies or compulsions of his possible successors making the job as much difficult - at least in the perception of Islamabad.
The last time Vajpayee initiated the peace process ahead of the Agra summit, ISI-backed terrorist groups declined the unilateral ceasefire offer made by India. Official Pakistan said as much at Agra. Now, after Vajpayee's Srinagar initiative, it is Pakistan that proposed the ceasefire, after a series of calibrated CBMs, but without a similar commitment from the terrorist groups based on its soil.
Nearer home, however, the Hurriyat Conference, now under a moderate leadership, has accepted the Centre's invitation for talks. Ironically again, Pakistan continues to recognize the anti-India faction of the Hurriyat. The discredited faction has to its credit the boycott-call given on the eve of last year's Assembly elections, which was not only free and fair, but also ushered in a new era in the troubled border State.
There are lessons to be learnt from the past. What more, the future cannot be held hostage to the past, near and distant.
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