he emergence and rise of the so-called Islamic State, the proto- state caliphate declared by terror group ISIS, has changed the way academics, policymakers and law enforcement agencies view andTunderstand terrorism. The complex factors that contributed to its rapid expansion, coupled with its organised program to spread jihadist ideologies, have enabled the ISIS to persist with an unshakable tenacity. There are several factors which set apart ISIS from similar terrorist organisations. From the successful establishment of a proto-state in the Middle East, to the transnational reach of its propaganda to recruit disillusioned individuals with jihadist leanings—the ascent of the ISIS, though disturbing, has been unique. Today, the group no longer holds sweeping control over parts of Iraq and Syria. Yet even as the loss of territory has reduced the magnitude of threat it posed before, the ISIS ideology continues to survive. This is supported by the emergence of “ISIS 2.0” and recent incidents of isolated “lone wolf attacks”.
With the changes that ISIS brings to our understanding of terrorism and the ideologies that enable it to flourish, it becomes imperative to comprehensively study its origin, modus operandi, and its influence in South Asia, specifically. This monograph is divided into three parts, and examines the rise and fall of ISIS in the Middle East and its influence in South Asia and India.
The first paper in this compendium takes an in-depth look at ISIS’ structure, organisation, leadership, and plan of operations. It adopts a multi-dimensional approach to examine the factors that led to ISIS’ inception and rise to power, its fall, and its possible future trajectory. Beginning with the history of the creation of the ISIS, the paper traces its emergence from the shadow of Al Qaeda and charts its evolution into a worldwide “caliphate”. The next section analyses the contributions of known terrorists like Abu Musab Zarqawi and Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, who led ISIS at various points of time, and helped consolidate its ideology and singular brand of violence. The paper then discusses ISIS’ 4 three pillars, i.e. military strategy, online and media propaganda, and financing—which provided the backbone for its extensive operations. The subsequent section looks at various factors, including religious and political turmoil, which contributed to its expansion through the quick capture of territories in Iraq and Syria. The paper concludes by reflecting on what the end of the ISIS proto-state means for the future of the Middle East, given that its jihadist ideology and propaganda activities continue to survive.
The second paper examines the influence of ISIS in South Asian countries, following the loss of its territories in 2017. ISIS continues to be ideologically stable, and has proven that it can influence and radicalise individuals in foreign countries, through its vast network of associated groups and governates. The paper explains that ISIS’ influence in South Asia largely varies according to domestic factors, like politics, economy and the peculiar socio-religious structures of individual countries. Though its influence in India is limited, the ISIS has managed to make its mark in the neighbouring countries of Bangladesh and Afghanistan. Various factors unique to these countries—such as Afghanistan’s ongoing political turmoil—provide easy inroads for ISIS. This development could endanger the stability of the region, and constitute a grave security threat for India. The paper then theorises various models to chart ISIS’ future course following its collapse as a proto-state, and discusses the implications for South Asia.
The third part of this monograph looks at ISIS’ influence in India through individual case studies, and seeks to extract patterns to understand the various social, religious and political reasons that radicalise potential recruits. The case studies adopt a multi-dimensional approach in examining the background, socio-economic status, and the ideology that push Indian nationals to the jihadist cause. Apart from tracing the influence of the internet and social media in ISIS’ recruitments, the paper also looks at local and political developments that help generate support for ISIS’ violent propaganda. The paper uses primary research data to map pro-ISIS cases in different states across India, and analyses the effect of the Kashmir issue on jihadism and extremism. The paper concludes by charting out trends and patterns for ISIS’ influence in India, and the security threat it continues to pose for the region.
We hope that this monograph, apart from providing a detailed look at ISIS’ conception and operational structure, will also help in understanding 5 the evolving nature of terrorism and the factors that continue to strengthen and propagate jihadist ideologies. Through this study, we aim to fill the lacuna in our current understanding of ISIS’ influence in India and South Asia, and hope that our research will enable decision-makers to formulate appropriate counter-terrorism strategies to help create a safe, secure and peaceful regional environment.
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