Xi’s Blueprint for China’s High-Quality, Secure Growth

This is the 184^th in the ‘China Chronicles’ series.

The 20th Central Committee’s Fourth Plenary Session, an important conclave of the Communist Party of China (CPC), was held in October 2025 amid palpable tension with the United States (US) over trade and technology issues, economic challenges in China, and global conflicts. The plenum served as a political and strategic platform to assess the implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025) and to outline the vision for the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). The communique released by the Party after the session reiterated that economic development remains the Party’s central task. Still, the quality, sustainability, and security of that development have become the principal guiding force. The communique also suggests the CPC leadership’s renewed focus on technological innovation and boosting self-reliance in line with the 14th Five-Year Plan, which is set to culminate this year.

The plenum reaffirmed the principle of “progress while maintaining stability” (稳中求进), reflecting the leadership’s intent to balance reform with caution, growth with risk management, and innovation with control.

Internally, China is facing slowing growth, demographic pressures in the form of an ageing population, and instability within its property sector following Evergrande's delisting from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. In this tumultuous environment, the plenum reaffirmed the principle of “progress while maintaining stability” (稳中求进), reflecting the leadership’s intent to balance reform with caution, growth with risk management, and innovation with control. The central political outcome of the plenum was the approval of the “Proposals for Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development (2026–2030)”. This document, though yet to be released in full, is expected to steer China’s economic agenda through the end of the decade, setting the foundation for achieving ‘socialist modernisation’ by 2035.

The most significant takeaway from the 4^th plenum was the reaffirmation that high-quality development remains the ‘primary task’ of China’s high-tech modernisation drive. The communique explicitly stated that the Party “must continue to pursue economic development as its central task, with high-quality development as its main focus.” This high-quality economic development should be accompanied by technological progress.  This signals a decisive move away from growth measured purely in quantitative terms, such as Gross Domestic Product (GDP) expansion, toward a more balanced and innovation-driven model that doesn’t focus solely on quantitative production.

High-quality development, as defined by CPC discourse, encompasses productivity enhancement, technological advancement, ecological sustainability, and social equity. Additionally, the plenum underscores improving total factor productivity, upgrading industrial structures, and fostering new quality productive forces—a concept gaining traction in official narratives since 2024. These forces refer to technologically intensive sectors such as artificial intelligence (AI), renewable energy, semiconductors, and digital infrastructure, which are expected to lay the foundation for the next phase of economic growth. Over the years, China has demonstrably improved its competitiveness in sectors such as electric vehicles (EVs). However, the development of sophisticated semiconductors remains a key challenge amid the US’s technology denial regime.

The plenum underscores improving total factor productivity, upgrading industrial structures, and fostering new quality productive forces—a concept gaining traction in official narratives since 2024.

The 4^th plenum reaffirmed the real economy as the foundation of China’s national strength. In CPC economic thought, the ‘real economy’ refers to tangible sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, and agriculture, as opposed to speculative or financial activities. The session emphasised the development of a modern industrial system, which integrates advanced manufacturing, digital transformation, and green growth. It also called for the simultaneous upgrading of traditional industries—such as steel, chemicals, and textiles—through automation and environmental innovation, as well as promoting emerging industries including new-energy vehicles, biopharmaceuticals, quantum computing, cloud computing, and AI. The leadership described this as a necessary evolution to improve resilience, enhance supply-chain security, and consolidate China’s position in global value chains.

The core component of the plenum’s economic strategy is the continuation of the “new development pattern” (新发展格局), which emphasises the dual circulation model: reinforcing the domestic cycle while deepening the international cycle. The leadership aims to expand domestic consumption and investment as twin drivers of growth, reduce dependence on external markets due to the volatile global political landscape, and establish a unified national market that facilitates efficient factor mobility across regions. A recent World Bank report highlighted the significance of consumption in driving China's economic growth, particularly in light of the declining influence of exports to the US due to issues of trade protectionism.

The communique underscored that “new demand creates new supply, and new supply generates new demand,” reflecting a dynamic approach to domestic rebalancing. Policies aimed at boosting household income, improving social security, and expanding public services are being designed to strengthen consumption capacity. Concurrently, the government is channelling investments toward technological innovation, green industries, and digital infrastructure, rather than traditional property-led growth, which formed the base of gross capital formation under the government and private investment heads.

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remain a key vehicle for international cooperation, with emphasis shifting from large-scale infrastructure to digital, green, and health-oriented projects.

China is moving forward from Deng Xiaoping’s strategy ‘Opening Up’ to ‘High-standard Opening Up’. While domestic circulation is being strengthened, the plenum still reiterated its commitment to “high-standard opening up”. It has pledged to deepen institutional reforms in trade and investment, safeguard the multilateral trading system, and expand two-way investment flows. The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) remain a key vehicle for international cooperation, with emphasis shifting from large-scale infrastructure to digital, green, and health-oriented projects. Additionally, China’s Global Development Initiative (GDI) plays a crucial role in high-standard opening up, through which it aims to find the source of raw materials and final products in the same market.  This dual message—of openness combined with self-reliance—illustrates the CPC’s strategy: maintaining global engagement while hedging against external vulnerabilities due to increasing trade barriers.

Another major theme of the 4^th plenum was rural revitalisation and regional coordination, central to addressing China’s uneven development and unequal income distribution. The plenum called for accelerating agricultural modernisation, improving rural infrastructure, and raising farmers’ income. It restated the need to consolidate the gains of poverty alleviation and integrate rural areas into broader urban economic networks.  Leveraging the rural and urban integration in various facets, such as developing a unified land market and an integrated market mechanism, could revitalise rural economic growth whilst increasing rural and urban coordination. Regional coordination will continue under flagship strategies, including the Yangtze River Economic Belt, the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area, and the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei Integration Plan.

Environmental governance was also featured prominently in the plenum’s central agenda. The communique reiterated the principle that “lucid waters and lush mountains are invaluable assets” (綠水青山就是金山銀山), indicating the need to accelerate the transition toward a low-carbon, green economy. This includes supporting renewable energy, improving energy efficiency, and progressing toward China’s dual carbon targets—peaking carbon emissions before 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. In the party document, green transformation is now viewed not only as an ecological necessity but also as an economic opportunity to explore investment opportunities in other countries. The most important part of this initiative is to develop the green corridor in other countries. China can claim its carbon neutrality target through carbon trading. Green technology and sustainable industries are also viewed as drivers of both domestic demand and international competitiveness.

The 4th Plenum represents a synthesis of continuity and adaptation in China’s political economy.

Furthermore, macroeconomic stability and governance reforms constituted another outcome of the plenum. It has acknowledged that the domestic and international environment remains “complex and severe,” with persistent risks in local government debt (LGD), real estate bubble, and small business financing. The session urged an overhaul of macro-governance systems, improvements in fiscal and monetary coordination, and the strengthening of financial supervision through institutional mechanisms such as the State Administration for Market Regulation (SAMR), China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission (CBIRC), and China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC), among others. A major institutional goal highlighted is to refine the socialist market economy, allowing the market to play a decisive role in resource allocation while ensuring effective government oversight.

In sum, the 4th Plenum represents a synthesis of continuity and adaptation in China’s political economy. Continuity lies in the Party’s unwavering leadership under Xi, alongside the centrality of economic development, which is more diverse than an isolated focus on manufacturing and export. Adaptation is visible in the recalibration of development priorities—from quantity to quality, from external dependence to domestic strength, and from low-cost manufacturing to innovation-led growth or high-tech manufacturing. The outcomes of this plenum will shape the drafting of the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030)—a crucial bridge toward the 2035 goal of achieving socialist modernisation. It also underscores how China is institutionalising a new model of Party-state Capitalism, where economic governance intertwines developmental ambition with political centralisation and national security concerns.

Kalpit A. Mankikar is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme, Observer Research Foundation.

Amit Ranjan Alok is a Research Intern at the Observer Research Foundation

• International Affairs
• China
• USA and Canada
• 15th five year plan china
• china growth forecast
• cpc meeting 2025
• five year plans china
• fourth plenum china
• us china trade war

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