2025 may break geopolitical impasses, with shifts in US-Russia relations, China-Taiwan tensions, and challenges in climate action and global diplomacy
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This article is a part of the essay series “Budapest Edit”
2025 is likely to break the current geopolitical impasse along multiple axes. President Donald Trump is expected to end the Ukraine conflict by seeking China’s support in getting Russia to the negotiating table and making some concessions, likely leaving Ukraine disappointed. Reconstruction will further drain European resources. A thaw in US-Russia relations may help the US deal with thorny Sino-US issues, with the threat of trade tariffs against China being leveraged by Trump. The US is unlikely to rein in Israel and may, in fact, support the demand for the unconditional release of hostages held by Hamas. With the US disinterested in Syria, Israel will have the freedom to tackle any evolving threat in that region, with the Middle East and Türkiye also playing an important role in determining Syria’s political geography and future.
In East Asia, China may ease up on military pressure on Taiwan, gauging the likely response of the Trump presidency. The regional environment will be complex, with an unstable political situation in Japan, compounded by new uncertainties in the Republic of Korea, as well as a potential rise in the DPRK’s missile tests. Japan-China relations could further mend, but Japanese investors' appetite for new projects in China will diminish in light of China’s slowing growth rate and the recent arrest of Japanese businessmen on spying charges. Vietnam and India, among others, could benefit.
Japan-China relations could further mend, but Japanese investors' appetite for new projects in China will diminish in light of China’s slowing growth rate and the recent arrest of Japanese businessmen on spying charges.
2025 may see some improvement in India-China relations, both on and off the border, in the run-up to the 75th anniversary of diplomatic ties on 1 April 2025, even though a genuine reset is unlikely.
Given the disappointing outcome at COP29 regarding funding for the New Collective Quantified Goal (NCQG), climate action will be further thwarted. The debate on data sovereignty, Artificial Intelligence, and Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS) will continue. Private players will likely play a bigger role in shaping policies and determining outcomes in battlefields and space.
Sujan R. Chinoy is the Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi
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Amb Sujan R. Chinoy is the Director General of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi since 2019. A career ...
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