In the lead-up to the 2026 island council elections, President Muizzu’s recent anti-defection law has imbued the Opposition with newfound political energy
Image Source: Getty
Even as Maldives is still stuck in legacy economic issues, President Mohamed Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC) rushed an anti-defection law through Parliament that has raised eyebrows. By this very act, the PNC, which has 75 Members of Parliament (MPs) in a 93-seat House with the backing of four more alliance parliamentarians, has triggered questions about political stability. Such voter perceptions, caused by unceasing internal turmoil in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP), were a major contributor to predecessor Ibrahim ‘Ibu’ Solih losing last year’s presidential elections, even when rival Muizzu was relatively unknown outside of the capital Malé.
In response, Solih’s MDP, now in the opposition with just 12 MPs, has seized the opportunity. Following Muizzu's prolonged popularity with voters over the past year, the MDP now aims to leverage an issue that could reignite political discourse, which has largely been overshadowed by the nation’s economic crisis. As such, the MDP’s effort is also to revive the democratic credentials of the party, as they paint Muizzu as isolated and autocratic.
Following Muizzu's prolonged popularity with voters over the past year, the MDP now aims to leverage an issue that could reignite political discourse, which has largely been overshadowed by the nation’s economic crisis.
On 10 December, the MDP revived the forgotten “Citizens in Defence of the Constitution” programme from the past with a rally addressed by Solih, among others. Simultaneously, the party announced its support for MPs joining the MDP or otherwise quitting the PNC to contest and win their seats in a re-election. To drive a sense of impending instability across PNC corridors, the MDP also announced an unnamed contingency team to run party affairs if the ruling government imprisoned the present office-bearers.
The Party also has plans to expand its pro-democracy protests, centred on the anti-defection law, to other parts of the country. Going by the substantial participation at the ‘Defense of the Constitution’ rally, the MDP hopes to consolidate the economy-stricken public mood against the Muizzu leadership across the country in the long run-up to the nationwide local council elections, which will then become a mid-term referendum on the Muizzu dispensation.
Not to be outdone by the MDP is Muizzu’s estranged mentor, former president Abdulla Yameen and his People’s National Front (PNF). The Muizzu government’s silent yet loud acknowledgement of the Solih government’s multiple agreements with New Delhi has taken the wind out of Yameen’s “India Out” campaign. Still, he is clutching at the residual ‘nationalist’ agenda, centred on perceptions of national sovereignty and security.
The Muizzu government’s silent yet loud acknowledgement of the Solih government’s multiple agreements with New Delhi has taken the wind out of Yameen’s “India Out” campaign.
Yameen has thus come out in opposition to the Muizzu leadership’s constitutional amendments, dictating that the government has to obtain an unprecedented three-fourths parliamentary approval for enacting such changes. The new provision targets the Solih dispensation’s withdrawal of the long-pending proceedings over the ownership of the Chagos region involving the country’s southern neighbour, Mauritius. Yameen has since declared that such decisions on modifying not in Parliament but on the people. If he meant a people’s referendum, he did not say so.
The MDP‘s unprecedented decision to create a contingency team seems to indicate that the party is preparing for a political long haul. As coincidence would have it, the announcement followed ruling party MPs demanding the immediate arrest of MDP chairperson Fayyaz Ismail under the anti-terrorism law after he re-posted a controversial speech by a lower-level party leader in northern Kulhudhuffushi island. In the re-posted speech, purportedly endorsed by Fayyaz Ismail, the MDP leader said that the fate of the nation’s first President, Mohamed Amin Didi (1910-54), awaited Muizzu if he continued with his current ways.
As if taking cue from law-makers’ demands, the PNC-packed Public Finance Committee of the Parliament has resolved to recommend a criminal investigation against Solih, Fayyaz and others for alleged legal and regulatory breaches in the ‘Settlement Committee’ formed by the previous regime to sort out arbitration-like issues in the government’s agreements with private parties. The Muizzu government had earlier scrapped the scheme, claiming that the settlement mechanism was not supported by any legal scheme, thus making it ab initio illegal.
The government has also promptly denied Solih’s claim at the ‘Defence of the Constitution’ rally that the Muizzu leadership planned to change the constitution of the Supreme Court bench or any other court in the country. Attorney-General Ahmed Usham also reiterated the government’s commitment to not interfere with the judicial process—a position that Muizzu had taken when the Yameen camp demanded presidential intervention to have the two pending criminal cases against their leader closed.
The Muizzu government had earlier scrapped the scheme, claiming that the settlement mechanism was not supported by any legal scheme, thus making it ab initio illegal.
Muizzu’s problems, however, are as internal as those of all his predecessors—Presidents Solih, Yameen and Mohammed Nasheed, who was the first to be elected under the pro-democracy Constitution in 2008. At a PNC parliamentary group meeting, some members reportedly wanted three of Muizzu’s Cabinet colleagues replaced. They also reportedly wanted more political power and authority for Parliament Speaker Abdul Raheem ‘Adhurey’, considered the architect of Muizzu’s successful coup against his mentor Yameen and his subsequent victory against incumbent Solih in the presidential poll last year.
The MDP Opposition seems to have concluded that, as in any democracy where the Opposition is weak, internal contradictions will inevitably show up within the ruling dispensation—an umbrella outfit put together more by circumstances than by design. This was true of the preceding Solih leadership as well. The Yameen leadership, on the other hand, lacked this kind of majority. The previous Nasheed dispensation also had to do without a parliamentary majority of its own. In both these scenarios, internal cohesion within the ruling alliance of the socio-political formation was held.
The MDP’s decision to support (ruling party) MPs joining the party or quitting Parliament who choose to contest and win a new term without the PNC tag has to be seen in this context. It remains to be seen if the government would amend the Constitution to fix this lacuna, caused mainly by inadequate discussions on the anti-defection law. Amendments would bar the re-election of members who have either been sacked or have resigned from their seats of their own volition.
For now, a renewed focus on politics may have provided the much-needed diversion for the MDP, which has been smothered by unacknowledged factionalism. As Solih indicated not very long ago, there are already five MDP aspirants for the party ticket to the presidential election, which is four long years away. Included in the list are Fayyaz, party president Abdulla Shahid, Malé Mayor Adam Azim, and, of course, Solih himself.
Amendments would bar the re-election of members who have either been sacked or have resigned from their seats of their own volition.
The current developments also provide a much-needed digression for the Muizzu presidency, which has its back against the wall battling the nation’s economic woes. Yet, when the issue pertains to politics, matters are pure and simple. There is a strong constituency in the country that considers itself the guardian of the pro-democracy movement from the first decade of the 21st century leading up to the multi-party Constitution of 2008 and the election of MDP’s Mohamed ‘Anni’ Nasheed as the first President under this new scheme.
The question before the MDP is whether it can revive its past spirit after it has squandered political benefits and electoral advantages through infighting and maladministration. For Muizzu, his primary concern is keeping his flock together and ensuring that his MPs and allies do not jump ship while keeping his rivals in the MDP, breakaway Democrats, and the PNF apart. Either way, all stakeholders need to pick up and retain this momentum at least until the nationwide island council elections in 2026
N Sathiya Moorthy is a Chennai-based Policy Analyst and Political Commentator
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.
Read More +
PREV
