The tech industry will create a new social class in moderate Muslim states that will make them resilient to Islamic radicalization while building the economy in a sustainable manner
What is happening in Afghanistan can have a direct impact on Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan—six moderate Muslim states with a population twice as large as that of Afghanistan. Now they are at risk of becoming six more “Islamic emirates” if the West does not promptly develop and launch a programme to protect them from the influence of the Taliban and other Islamic fundamentalist organisations.
Today, the authorities of these countries use various, mostly authoritarian, methods to protect their population from radical Islamic influence. Undoubtedly, the Taliban’s victory in Afghanistan changes the balance of power dramatically and makes the secular regimes in these countries extremely vulnerable. Local authorities can only oppose the economic prosperity of the rapidly growing young population to the ideas of Islamic fundamentalism.
The regional leaders are growing conscious that the old way is no longer sustainable, and the key to prosperity is innovation and rapid digitalisation of all spheres of life.
Over the past 30 years, each of these countries has followed its own development path, and their economies, without exception, rely on the foundations established in the last century. These economic models—dependent on the extraction of natural resources, agriculture, and tourism—have done little to improve most of the population’s overall financial stability and economic well-being. The regional leaders are growing conscious that the old way is no longer sustainable, and the key to prosperity is innovation and rapid digitalisation of all spheres of life.
There is a colossal intellectual potential of the youth in these countries. Educating hundreds of thousands of local young people, starting with basic coding, and creating remote jobs for them in the global industry, can completely change the socio-economic situation in the region. The experience of other post-Soviet countries, like Belarus and Ukraine, demonstrates that local IT industries create jobs with average wages exceeding US $2,000. With the average regional income of US $400-$500, the new industry can create a “new local middle class”. This “new middle class” will become the support and protection of the state institutions in Central Asia, which were created by the joint efforts of local authorities and various institutions of the US, EU, and other western states.
What is more, “protection” can include military defence: The precedent occurred in Ukraine in 2014. Then “the first defence echelon” against the units of the Russian army advancing on Donbas were not the regular units of the Ukrainian army, which was completely decomposed by corruption, but of dozens of “volunteer battalions”. These echelons were formed and technically equipped by the Ukrainian “new middle class”, mainly by representatives of the local IT industry.
According to the global statistics, each IT job creates an additional five jobs in non-related sectors: Drivers, waiters, construction builders, and more so. Employment for millions can result from these investments.
The “new middle class” is not only about programmers. According to the global statistics, each IT job creates an additional five jobs in non-related sectors: Drivers, waiters, construction builders, and more so. Employment for millions can result from these investments. Importantly, this new employment model can prevent brain drain, encourage talented young people to see the future in their homeland, and eventually form new elites in these countries, with the rule of law and private property protection as a natural part of their DNA.
The new digital economy of Central Asia and Azerbaijan will assist in resolving the issues related to the inclusiveness of economic development. It will allow the residents of remote areas to find work, eliminate gender inequality, and contribute to the integration of ethnic minorities.
The West does not have two decades to implement such a programme, but it has allies in local authorities. Local governments are already making relevant efforts: Uzbekistan has developed advanced legislation in the field of blockchain technologies and has a state programme—“The One Million Uzbek Coders.” Kazakhstan has invested heavily in Astana Hub. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan have become participants in the World Bank’s Digital CASA programme, creating data centres and providing fast Internet access.
The new digital economy of Central Asia and Azerbaijan will assist in resolving the issues related to the inclusiveness of economic development.
It doesn’t take US $2 trillion to build an army of knowledge-driven and western-minded middle-class people. The entire training programme for a million Uzbek programmers will cost about a thousand times cheaper. But this “army” may prove to be a more effective defence against the threat of Islamic radicalisation in the region. A targeted programme of digitalisation of Central Asia and Azerbaijan initiated by the western governments in cooperation with international financial institutions would conceivably yield significant returns. Perhaps, even more important is the fact that it shows the ability of the West to make a critical contribution to global stability and prosperity.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Anatoly Motkin is founder and President of StrategEast an US-based nonprofit promoting knowledge-based economies in Eurasia.
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