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A US-brokered peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan launches the TRIPP corridor, redefining South Caucasus geopolitics and great power rivalry.
Image Source: Getty Images
Following numerous rounds of negotiations, the leaders of Azerbaijan and Armenia signed a historic peace accord mediated by the United States (US) at the White House. The agreement was signed in the presence of President Donald Trump on 8th August 2025, marking the culmination of decades of conflict and war.
Under the deal’s ambit, the US will establish a major corridor—the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP)—linking Nakhichevan, the Azerbaijani enclave bordering Türkiye, to Azerbaijan, via the Zangezur Corridor. The Zangezur Corridor is a direct overland multimodal route connecting mainland Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through southern Armenia.
Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the 43 km corridor in Armenia is expected to become a vital cross-Eurasia geostrategic and geoeconomic asset for the US, especially vis-à-vis Tehran, Moscow, and even Beijing. If developed, the corridor could fill the power vacuum in the historically Russian-dominated region and reshape regional geopolitics.
On 11 July 2025, the US ambassador to Türkiye, Tom Barrack, confirmed earlier media reports about Washington’s proposal to lease and manage the strategic corridor for 100 years as a solution to the longstanding deadlock between Yerevan and Baku. Amid rising geopolitical tensions, the 43 km corridor in Armenia is expected to become a vital cross-Eurasia geostrategic and geoeconomic asset for the US, especially vis-à-vis Tehran, Moscow, and even Beijing. If developed, the corridor could fill the power vacuum in the historically Russian-dominated region and reshape regional geopolitics. However, the plan is likely to remain contentious and may provoke strong reactions from Moscow and Tehran, risking further regional tensions and aggravating existing fault lines.
After decades of tension and conflict, the 2023 Nagorno-Karabakh war witnessed Baku retaking control of the region, coupled with the exodus of thousands of ethnic Armenians. The situation led Yerevan to seek new partners, as Moscow—with its preoccupation with the Ukraine invasion—was unable to maintain the status quo. The withdrawal of the passive peacekeeping force of 2,000 Russian troops dealt a further blow to Moscow’s capabilities, prompting Azerbaijan and Armenia to begin peace negotiations with support from other powers, such as the European Union (EU), Türkiye, and the US. Despite Yerevan’s return of four border villages in May 2024 to foster peace, Baku remained hesitant to engage in negotiations, citing concerns over the establishment of a transport link to Nakhichevan through the Zangezur corridor. After December 2024, when a Russian missile downed the Azerbaijan Airlines flight in Grozny, relations between Baku and Moscow rapidly deteriorated. The recent custodial deaths of some Azerbaijani citizens worsened the equation further.
The TRIPP corridor’s estimated costs of US$3-5 billion over the next 5 to 10 years could generate annual logistics savings of approximately US$20-30 billion.
Russia’s regional influence also weakened after the emergence of new players. Meanwhile, the erstwhile Biden administration increased its regional engagement for geopolitical and economic gains. Washington’s role in the South Caucasus and the latest connectivity projects, such as the Middle Corridor, also known as the Trans-Caspian International Trade Route (TITR), gained further prominence when the Foreign Ministers of Armenia and Azerbaijan met with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) Summit in Washington in July 2024. Both states agreed to work for lasting peace. Following their meeting in March 2025, the Armenian and Azerbaijani leaders met once more in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to discuss a peace and reconciliation agreement. They made notable progress by finalising border delimitations, recognising sovereign territories, and reaffirming their mutual commitment to non-use of force. They also issued a joint appeal to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), calling for the closure of the Minsk Process and related conflict resolution structures for resolving tensions between Azerbaijan and Armenia.
The TRIPP corridor’s estimated costs of US$3-5 billion over the next 5 to 10 years could generate annual logistics savings of approximately US$20-30 billion. The corridor has the potential to unlock US$50-100 billion in annual trade by 2027 and reduce transit time between Asia and Europe. More importantly, it will meet the growing infrastructure needs of TITR, which connects Europe with Central Asia and beyond via Georgia. It will also enhance Europe’s energy security and double the energy imports from Central Asia and Azerbaijan.
Azerbaijan’s Southern Gas Corridor delivered 12 billion cubic metres in 2023, with the target to deliver 20 billion by 2027. Furthermore, Central Asian countries also aim to enhance the transit of oil and gas through Azerbaijan to Europe, not only to diversify energy markets but also to reduce their reliance on Russian infrastructure for energy exports and counter the increasing Chinese dominance. The route will make Azerbaijan and Armenia mutually dependent, both economically and strategically, further aiding the shedding of the historical conflict baggage. Baku will gain direct access to the Nakhichevan enclave, while transit fees from this corridor will boost Yerevan’s economy. Additionally, Armenia will get access to Azerbaijan’s rail infrastructure for international trade and commerce.
Owing to its geography, the TRIPP corridor raises both security and economic concerns for Iran and Russia. For Tehran, it threatens the loss of its intermediary role between Türkiye, Azerbaijan, and Central Asia, thereby amplifying Ankara’s influence over Turkish-speaking nations. Meanwhile, Russia could also lose sway over European energy markets and face increasing security threats and connectivity problems in the South Caucasus. Given its strained relations with Tehran and Moscow, the TRIPP corridor could render Azerbaijan’s western route of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) less relevant. Recognising the significance of TITR, Beijing has sought to strengthen its influence over the route by developing the Georgian port in the Black Sea and deepening its economic ties with Azerbaijan. Nonetheless, the TRIPP corridor is likely to reduce reliance on China-built routes.
Given its strained relations with Tehran and Moscow, the TRIPP corridor could render Azerbaijan’s western route of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) less relevant.
As new power dynamics unfold in the South Caucasus, Iran has responded strongly, describing the TRIPP corridor as a form of political treachery. Tehran has threatened to block the corridor, regardless of Russia, with which it maintains a strategic alliance. A top advisor to Iran’s supreme leader also stated that the corridor will not serve as a gateway for Trump’s mercenaries, but rather as their graveyard.
On the other hand, Russia, which has invested heavily in INSTC, will face enhanced strategic challenges in the South Caucasus. The peace agreement will increase the influence of the US and NATO in its southern periphery. However, Russia has yet to officially respond to this development, given Moscow’s continued preoccupation with Ukraine, and ongoing talks between President Putin and Trump for conflict resolution. The Armenian Prime Minister has already informed the Russian President about the results of the peace agreement. Putin has expressed willingness to help achieve a thorough normalisation between Azerbaijan and Armenia, based on the trilateral accords of 2020 and 2022, including the reopening of transport corridors.
The peace accord offers Trump a platform to claim statesmanship on the world stage, with both Armenia and Azerbaijan joining Pakistan in openly supporting his candidacy for the Nobel Peace Prize. The TRIPP corridor is thus much more than a transport conduit. It is a political bandwagon for Trump’s legacy. However, given the heightened geopolitical contestation for regional influence, the coming days and months will reveal whether new-power actors such as the US will emerge in the heart of Eurasia or if further conflicts, characterised by intense power rivalries, will escalate.
Ayjaz Wani (PhD) is a Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Ayjaz Wani (Phd) is a Fellow in the Strategic Studies Programme at ORF. Based out of Mumbai, he tracks China’s relations with Central Asia, Pakistan and ...
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