Artificial Intelligence and Cyber technologies will augment the existing traditional combat platforms rather than rendering them obsolete
The Chief of Army Staff (COAS), MM Naravane, in early March 2020, quite emphatically stated: “Icons of the 20th-century warfare like main battle tanks and fighter aircraft are on their way out”. He also went on to maintain that “…the battle winning factor in future combat may not be numerical equivalence but technological superiority. Brick and mortar military structures and capacities, will perhaps matter less; technological capacities in enabling domains like AI (artificial intelligence) and cyber will decisively tip the military balance…”
The first part of the statement about tanks and fighter aircrafts becoming obsolete or verging on obsolescence by the COAS has not aged well. Within two months, in May, the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) seized key geographic positions claimed by India in a surprise attack that eventually culminated in a bloody clash at Galwan along the Line of Actual Control (LaC) on 15 June, killing 20 Indian soldiers and five PLA soldiers. India countermobilised against China’ seizure of territory with increased tank, artillery, infantry, and air power deployments indicating how short-sighted the statement was. Since May 2020, India and China have been locked in a tense boundary stand-off with the PLA in what promises to be a protracted affair. India did execute a tactical surprise of its own by seizing Kailash Range in late August 2020, but eventually swapped it for China’s withdrawal from the “fingers” area of Pangong Tso in February 2021, and subsequently, in late July, both China and India withdrew from Gogra, which China had occupied amongst three other areas namely Depsang, Hot Springs, and Demchok in May 2020. The latter three areas, which are dubbed as “friction points”, have been under Chinese control since May 2020.
The Peoples Liberation Army (PLA) seized key geographic positions claimed by India in a surprise attack that eventually culminated in a bloody clash at Galwan along the Line of Actual Control (LaC) on 15 June, killing 20 Indian soldiers and five PLA soldiers.
Against this background, the COAS statement is as revealing as it is instructive in how little a key member of the upper echelons of the Indian Army (IA) remains blissfully unaware of his own service’s record and what the Government of India (GoI) is doing in the area of acquisitions and deployments. Let us put to the test the actual validity of the COAS’ statement as far as the IA is concerned. In the last three years at least, the IA has made heavy military hardware acquisitions such as tanks, attack helicopters and artillery guns. As for the second part of the COAS’ statement noted above, there is no denying the importance of emerging technologies such as cyber and AI and the more established technological domains such as space and electronic warfare. However, space, cyber, electronic, and AI technologies serve as force multipliers, in that they augment the performance of weapons platforms such as tanks, artillery guns, or aircraft. If not perfectly, they help with speedier and also more accurate decision-making for military commanders. They also help track, identify, and destroy targets during combat by enhancing the coordination and application of sensor to shooter capabilities. Space, cyber, electronic warfare capabilities, and AI are vital to Network Centric Operations (NCO) in that they assist in securing objectives of war by coordinating and synchronising action amongst disparate fighting units strewn across the battlefield and keep the costs and exertion of fighting at the operational and tactical level low.
As for the second part of the COAS’ statement noted above, there is no denying the importance of emerging technologies such as cyber and AI and the more established technological domains such as space and electronic warfare.
These technologies also constitute the foundation of a robust Command, Control, Communications, Computers, Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (C4ISR) capabilities generating high situational awareness and providing military commanders with a better understanding of the operational environment. After all, the COAS conceded, that space, cyber, AI, and electronic warfare technologies were only “enabling” technologies. If that is the case, where is the question of the tanks, fighter aircraft, and warships reaching obsolescence, let alone becoming redundant or dispensable. On their own, the quartet of space, cyber, electronic, and AI cannot defeat adversaries, but they augment the performance of traditional military platforms by making them more lethal, precise, and effective in delivering firepower, thereby, helping achieve specific military objectives, executing missions and catalysing decisive victory. Even if one were to discount the use of today’s weapons platforms such as tanks, aircraft, artillery guns, which are primarily manned; unmanned aircraft and tanks will still matter for the conduct of future military operations. There are examples of potentially AI playing a key role in aerial platforms such as the US’ Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicle (UCAV), which actually defeated two veteran American fighter pilots in combat simulations. Indeed, the Chinese have closely monitored these developments and several other AI-related applications in weapon systems by the US. The PRC for its part is making its own investments in AI and learning from the American experience.
Even if one were to discount the use of today’s weapons platforms such as tanks, aircraft, artillery guns, which are primarily manned; unmanned aircraft and tanks will still matter for the conduct of future military operations.
In addition, India’s military mobilisation against the Peoples Republic of China’s (PRC) occupation of Indian-claimed territory has involved the deployment of tanks such as the T-72s and T-90s, which in any case had already been deployed prior to the outbreak of the current Sino-Indian boundary crisis, which stands as a clear refutation of the COAS’ assertions.
Further, the problem with the COAS’ statement is not how glib it is, but more fundamentally the possibility of conventional war involving tanks and aircraft not occurring by inferring outcomes from recent conflicts, especially with regards to Russia’s involvement in military engagements on its periphery against opponents that are generally much weaker than Russia. India faces more formidable adversaries in the form of the PRC and Pakistan. The latter too is not a military pushover, as it is a heavily militarised state. Relative to India, the PRC is conventionally a stronger state. Each of these states have not completely dispensed with “…brick and mortar military structures and capacities…” as the COAS observed or at least there is no evidence to suggest that Beijing and Rawalpindi are doing so. During the current stand-off against India, the Chinese have inducted and deployed the Type-15 light tanks as well as heavier tank variants, combat aircraft, artillery and missile systems. In any case, the IA ordered 118 Arjun Mk-1As in October 2021, and the Indian Air Force has inducted the Rafale Medium Role Combat Aircraft (MRCA). Additionally, India is making a bid to acquire the Russian-built Sprut SDM1 light tanks to counter the Chinese especially in Ladakh, which has terrain in the contested Depsang area conducive for armoured operations.
During the current stand-off against India, the Chinese have inducted and deployed the Type-15 light tanks as well as heavier tank variants, combat aircraft, artillery and missile systems.
In a nutshell, the IA and the other service branches of the Indian military are unlikely to hurriedly dispense with traditional combat platforms and, thus, understanding the strengths and limitations as well as the applicability of space, cyber, electronic, and AI technologies is vital.
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Kartik Bommakanti is a Senior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme. Kartik specialises in space military issues and his research is primarily centred on the ...
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