Cities of the future must have sustainable mobility baked into the core planning process with the ultimate goal of meeting transport demand in a cost-effective way
The world is in the midst of a major migration. Every week, more than 1 million people make the transition away from rural life to cities, with projections indicating that by 2050 cities will become home to approximately 7 billion inhabitants. This massive influx of people poses a significant challenge to urban mobility systems. The ability of these systems to adapt will be crucial in determining whether cities can continue to fulfil their role as the engines of economic growth.
The past holds important lessons for the future of urban mobility. In the developed world, where a substantial portion of urbanisation has taken place, mobility has been automobile dominated and focused on personal modes of travel. For instance, the United States (US) has around 900 cars per 1000 population—almost a car per person. This reliance has come at a cost, manifesting in productivity losses caused by congestion and massive carbon emissions and air pollution. Estimates suggest that if the same trends continue, by 2050, urban dwellers could lose on average 106 hours per year stuck in traffic jams. As the next wave of urbanisation unfolds, particularly in developing nations, mobility planning must increasingly focus on a new paradigm that facilitates more efficient and sustainable movement of both people and goods.
EV growth has largely been driven by people looking to replace their fossil fuel-powered personal vehicles with new electric variants.
Technology will be a major shaper of new urban mobility systems. Driven by a strong global push to decarbonise, the biggest disruption is currently the transition to electric vehicles (EVs). Yet, the contours of this transition vary across geographies. China has been the outright leader in this regard accounting for over 50 percent of all electric vehicles sales. In the developed world, EV growth has largely been driven by people looking to replace their fossil fuel-powered personal vehicles with new electric variants. In Europe and US, electric cars accounted for 15 and 8 percent of all car sales in 2022.
However, in the emerging world, EV sales have been driven largely by the two-wheeler and three-wheeler segments. These vehicles are largely utilised by people in lower income brackets, many of whom are captive users. While in the developed world, the transition to electric vehicles is predominantly driven by affluent consumers with access to diverse transportation options, in the developing world, it's the lower-income groups leading the charge. For them, electric vehicles serve not just as a means of transport but as indispensable tools vital for sustaining their livelihoods.
The rise of digitalisation is also creating a new transition from private to shared urban mobility. While there are various definitions of shared mobility, fundamentally, it refers to a shift towards ‘mobility as a service’, where digital platforms enable the sharing of vehicles and bicycles by multiple users. This allows better utilisation of the existing vehicle stock, leading to reduced costs, congestions, and emissions. The growth of shared mobility has been quite remarkable; between 2016 to 2019, e-hailing trips grew from 5.5 trillion to 16.5 trillion. This has also become an attractive avenue for investors with more than US$ 100 billion invested in shared mobility companies since 2010.
While in the developed world, the transition to electric vehicles is predominantly driven by affluent consumers with access to diverse transportation options, in the developing world, it's the lower-income groups leading the charge.
In the short run, shared mobility will be people-driven. However, in the long run, the advent of autonomous vehicles is likely to add a new paradigm. Cities of the future could well be characterised by shared robo-taxis and robo-shuttles with optimised routes that can reduce costs and emissions. Some estimates suggest that autonomous shared mobility services could reach over US $400 billion by as early as 2030. However, there still remain many risks with autonomous vehicles. City governments are now actively attempting to identify a regulatory framework that can make autonomous vehicles safe while maintaining convenience. The pace at which enabling regulations evolve will determine the growth of autonomous mobility.
Therefore, urban mobility in the future will be shaped by the advent of new vehicle technologies combined with increased digitalisation and automation. However, whether these technological trends are successful in shaping effective urban mobility systems will depend upon the ability of city authorities to effectively incorporate these disrupters into the broader city planning process.
In the developed world, existing cities will need to be reimagined to enable a transition from a private-vehicle dominated mobility system powered by fossil fuels to cleaner more efficient ways of moving people. This will necessitate creating the right regulations to grow shared mobility and for public transport to shift away from private vehicles, while also creating the right economic incentives to enable people to shift towards electric mobility.
Urban mobility in the future will be shaped by the advent of new vehicle technologies combined with increased digitalisation and automation.
However, the biggest opportunity lies in the developing world. In these geographies, the cities that will house the next few billions are yet to be built. This new wave of urbanisation will be characterised not just by mega metropolises but also smaller cities that will emerge as non-urban regions transform. Currently, cities with less than 100,000 inhabitants house a third of the world’s urban population. This figure is expected to grow to 40 percent by 2050 making these medium-sized cities the fastest growing urban agglomerations. These developing cities present a ripe opportunity for innovation, sustainable development, and inclusive growth. They offer a blank canvas for urban planners, architects, and policymakers to create environments that prioritise accessibility and quality of life for residents. However, for these cities to achieve their potential, sustainable mobility must be baked into the core planning process with the ultimate goal of meeting transport demand in a cost-effective way, without creating motorised systems that will need to be redesigned again.
The century of the cities is also poised to become the age of innovative mobility systems that can enhance both human well-being and environmental sustainability. However, achieving these new urban systems will require human ingenuity and planning to match the rapid pace of technological advancement.
Promit Mookherjee is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Promit Mookherjee is an Associate Fellow at the Centre for Economy and Growth in Delhi. His primary research interests include sustainable mobility, techno-economics of low ...
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