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Mounting trade disputes, security pressures, and political frictions under the Trump administration are forcing Indo-Pacific allies to question the US’s credibility and explore alternatives, including closer engagement with China.
More than six months have passed since US President Donald Trump’s administration took over from its predecessor. In this short time, a lot of water has flown down the bridge, which has increased US allies' anxiety. Given this context, allies are rethinking their engagement with the US under the current administration, moving towards a more transactionalist approach. Recent actions by the Trump administration regarding tariffs on trade, security alliances, political interference, and the US’s foreign policy decisions have led to growing uneasiness within Indo-Pacific capitals. Given this context, allies' confidence in the US and its reliability is increasingly being debated.
The Indo-Pacific region has slipped from the radar since Trump assumed office in January 2025. Making matters worse, the trans-Pacific ties have been mired by trade tensions and uncertainties over changing tariffs, which have remained in place. Contemporary domestic political changes have consumed regional allies' time, deferring the earliest conclusion of trade negotiations. All of these issues have vitiated the existing political understanding between the allies.
Furthermore, the Trump administration’s domestic agenda has added to existing problems with allies, impacting diplomatic ties. Issues such as immigration, export controls, and investments have further created serious discord. The administration's disdain for minilateral and multilateral economic and security institutions has further strained relations.
Considering the steps taken by the Trump administration in recent months, US perception among allies has suffered further setbacks, signalling eroding reliability and trust. This has inadvertently elevated the Chinese position in the region as a credible and reliable actor.
Under the Trump administration, Washington’s economic ties with its allies have been strained due to new tariffs against Indo-Pacific partners. In parallel, the withering away of multilateral economic frameworks such as the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF), established under the Biden administration, has reduced US economic influence in the region. These steps have inadvertently forced many US allies to turn to Beijing for trade and commerce, reversing the de-risking trend.
A similar challenge is emerging in the security domain, as the US demands allies increase their defence budgets, focus on denial defence (moving beyond grey zone scenarios), showcase strategic flexibility, and clarify their commitments in a Taiwan contingency, as part of the administration’s ‘Peace through Strength’ approach. However, some recent developments have added to the confusion, including the administration's double speak on its dealings with China on national security matters. Recent reports that the Pentagon’s latest National Defense Strategy focused more on homeland threats than countering China have left allies wondering about the US's strategic intentions and its commitment to regional security.
Although the changing perception of Washington’s reliability among US allies in the region was seen as troubling, deeper institutional ties acted as a cushion, safeguarding the overall relations. However, considering the steps taken by the Trump administration in recent months, US perception among allies has suffered further setbacks, signalling eroding reliability and trust. This has inadvertently elevated the Chinese position in the region as a credible and reliable actor.
In addition to the baseline, countries have been subjected to varying tariffs. Trump’s demands that allies invest in the US without any safeguards or clarity have put them in a difficult position. Speaking on this issue, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung cautioned that Washington’s demand that Seoul invest US$350 billion without a currency swap would lead to a situation similar to the 1997 financial crisis. Similarly, Japanese officials have contradicted US claims regarding the Trump administration’s complete discretion over the proposed US$500 billion investments. Using tariffs to pressure allies into negotiations has harmed the US's reputation as a proponent of free trade. Therefore, despite reaching a deal, several allies are concerned about trade with the US. Prospects of future tariffs against the semiconductor and pharmaceutical sectors risk damaging the economic relationship further.
Political interference is another cause of concern for US allies, particularly in the face of growing domestic far-right movements and their linkages with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement in the US.
Political interference is another cause of concern for US allies, particularly in the face of growing domestic far-right movements and their linkages with the Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement in the US. In particular, South Korea and Japan stand out as case studies where the MAGA movement's influence is increasing significantly. This spread of far-right political ideology beyond the anglosphere is directly impacting political discourse in these countries around issues such as immigration, gender rights, and political culture. These movements directly influence political and social equations within these countries, making it difficult for existing dispensations to undertake policy reforms. The arrest of 317 South Korean nationals employed at a Hyundai electric vehicle battery plant in Georgia by the US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) is one example that highlights the clash between Trump’s political and economic agenda. It represents the Trumpian agenda colliding with his attempts to revive manufacturing, delaying Hyundai’s battery production by at least two months.
Besides MAGA politics and its influence, the US stance on Gaza and Ukraine has become another point of divergence with Indo-Pacific allies. Countries like Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, and Japan now starkly disagree with the US on a two-state solution and Ukrainian security. For instance, US diplomatic dealings with Russia on the Ukraine issue do not enjoy the support of its allies. This has forced many Indo-Pacific allies to reassess their expectations of the current US administration, particularly regarding its commitment to Taiwan. Mike Huckabee, the US Ambassador to Israel, called the Australian recognition of the Palestinian state a ‘terrible’ decision, underlining this difference.
This spread of far-right political ideology beyond the anglosphere is directly impacting political discourse in these countries around issues such as immigration, gender rights, and political culture.
Furthermore, while on one hand we see the US commitment to regional security standing on shaky ground, expectations from allies in the region have significantly increased. Allies have been asked to increase their defence spending and commit to a role in a potential Taiwan contingency, leaving several uneasy (perhaps with the exception of Japan). Similarly, Trump’s ‘America First’ foreign policy has also clashed with his predecessor’s security commitments. For instance, the AUKUS review by the Pentagon has emboldened sceptics, cautioning Australia to review the deal.
Cumulatively, these political, economic, and security issues strain US ties with allies. Trump’s hostility has alienated allies, further strengthening anti-US voices in these countries. Trump’s whims and fancies regarding trade and security have reversed Washington’s decades-long foreign policy stances. Therefore, if the Trump administration continues its transactional and hostile engagement with allies, it risks further fueling and consolidating anti-US sentiment, reducing its reliability and credibility as a serious actor.
Abhishek Sharma is a Junior Fellow with the Strategic Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Abhishek Sharma is a Junior Fellow with the ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. His research focuses on the Indo-Pacific regional security and geopolitical developments with a ...
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