Senegal’s President’s decision not to seek reelection for a third time is a reason to cheer and an inspiration to move towards democracy for the rest of West Africa as well as the continent
In a stunning reversal of fortune, on 3 July 3 2023, Senegal's President, Macky Sall, stated that he would not seek reelection for a third time. Originally scheduled to address the nation on June 25, the Senegalese President chose to postpone and save the announcement for an auspicious day—the day following the Muslim holiday of Eid al-Adha, which is typically associated with good news. The nation's Supreme Court further declared that it would be legal for him to fight one more election. Finally, his followers were prepared to go to great lengths to ensure he was elected President for a third term.
Therefore, many people, including his most ardent opponents, were surprised when the incumbent President, with a strong demonstration of statesmanship, announced his reluctance to continue. But in a way, his choice becomes exemplary because it gives Senegal's democracy its shining moment, especially against the backdrop of the month-long violent protests, which have taken the country to the brink of a civil war.
It was only a month ago, in June, when Senegal was rocked by a widespread protest. Although the populist opposition leader Ousmane Sonko's criminal conviction appeared to be the catalyst for the protest, its main objective was to persuade the President to rule out his reelection bid. Mr Sall, 61, was previously elected in 2012 for a seven-year term and again in 2019 for five years after he modified the Constitution, which limits presidents to two terms. However, when questioned by the media about his plans for 2024 soon after the 2019 election, he responded, "Ni oui, ni non" (neither yes nor no), remaining evasive about whether 2019 was his final term.
In an effort to quell the violence, access to the internet and social media was curtailed, and roadblocks were placed along critical routes.
Now the question is: Despite his admirable choice, did the announcement arrive a bit too late, as it has already caused a significant economic and human loss for the nation? In fact, hundreds of people were hurt during the violent protest last month, and at least 16 people, including two security personnel, reportedly died. Furthermore, there have been accusations of widespread sexual assault, as cases of sexual violence against women were reported.
Meanwhile, the police detained almost 500 individuals, including women and children. Later, in an effort to quell the violence, access to the internet and social media was curtailed, and roadblocks were placed along critical routes. Police in Dakar claimed that protesters erected barricades, blocked major roads, burned tires, damaged and looted public and private property, and threw stones at officers, prompting them to use tear gas.
In the West African region, which is plagued by presidents prolonging their stay in power and their removal through coups like a cycle, Senegal has long been hailed as a model of political pluralism. This pluralism is palpable from the existence of over 300 political parties, albeit many of them only on paper. A Muslim-majority country of 17 million people, Senegal represents a pinnacle of democracy and stability. It is no wonder that the West openly embraces Senegal as a partner. For example, to prohibit migrants from travelling to the Canary Islands, which are part of Spain and the European Union, Spain posts hundreds of soldiers in Dakar. The stability of Senegalese democracy has received considerable accolades and rewards from several American presidents, frequently through development assistance and State visits. For China, Senegal signifies a reliable trade partner.
A Muslim-majority country of 17 million people, Senegal represents a pinnacle of democracy and stability.
Both political and socio-economic factors had a role in the recent unrest. For many Senegalese, the aftereffect of the pandemic lingers, and it is still challenging to afford transportation expenses, rent, high electricity rates, and fuel prices. The living standards of many people continue to be miserable even though the country's economy has been expanding at a historic pace thanks to significant investments in infrastructure projects, including renewable and gas-fired power plants and extractive industries. Many young people in urban areas feel socio-economically marginalised and unhappy as they blame a government run by ageing, distant officials for being too sluggish to mitigate the economic hit from the pandemic and the effects of the Ukraine conflict.
Even though Mr Sall has not named his political replacement, Senegal will hold an open election in less than eight months. Perhaps, Sall's decision was driven by his willingness to avoid conflict with foreign funders, international investment partners, and the International Monetary Fund.
Meanwhile, the destiny of Mr Sonko, Sall's main rival, remains fuzzy. Earlier in June, he was convicted of "corrupting youth" and given a two-year sentence after a massage parlour employee accused him of rape in 2021. Similar protests also occurred in 2021 when Mr Sonko was charged with rape for the first time. At that time too, about 14 people were killed, most of them shot dead by the security forces. Since then, several people have been detained for flimsy offences, including defaming official institutions. Unsurprisingly, in press freedom, Senegal has fallen from 47th place in 2020 to 104th place in 2023.
The country has never experienced a military transfer of power or dictatorship, a rare feat in West Africa. As a matter of fact, Sall’s announcement comes as a contrast when democratic norms in the region are already under threat.
In fact, Sonko will not be the first opposition candidate who may get arrested and eventually disqualified from the upcoming election. He might face the same fate as some other opposition figures like Khalifa Sall and Karim Wade faced earlier. They were both disqualified from running for office after being found guilty of misusing funds in the run-up to the 2019 election. Even if the recent unrest appears to have been curbed using internet censorship and widespread military deployment, rumours that Sall would try to hold on to power and the associated violence have tarnished Senegal’s reputation as a generally stable democracy. And the risk of civil war could rise as the 2024 election draws near. It may get worse if Sall’s administration tries to further restrict free speech and opposition.
In Senegal’s post-colonial history, the country has never experienced a military transfer of power or dictatorship, a rare feat in West Africa. As a matter of fact, Sall’s announcement comes as a contrast when democratic norms in the region are already under threat. Over the past decade, each of its neighbours has witnessed a coup or at least a failed attempt at one. Most recently, junta governments have seized power via coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Guinea.
A constitutional referendum set for this month will allow President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of the Central African Republic to run for a third term.
In West Africa, clinging to power by altering the Constitution is a common phenomenon. President Alassane Ouattara of the Ivory Coast won a contentious third term in 2020 despite the election boycott by the Opposition over his unconstitutional candidacy. President Faure Gnassingbé of Togo is now serving his fourth term thanks to his amendment to the Constitution that eliminated a two-term limit. Further, a constitutional referendum set for this month will allow President Faustin-Archange Touadéra of the Central African Republic to run for a third term. Because most African leaders have been playing with the Constitutions of their respective countries, Mr Sall's decision is indeed exceptional for West and Central Africa.
Clearly, Senegal is a bellwether country in many ways. Because of its recently discovered oil and gas, Senegal has lately gained a lot of international attention. However, Senegal would require foreign investment in order to harness these natural resources. Sall's decision to give up his political ambitions has prevented the nation’s ongoing democratic transition since its independence from getting derailed and reversing its progress towards democratisation. This is encouraging for both investors and business partners. According to some projections, the country, in 2023 and 2024, is expected to grow by 8.3 percent and 10.6 percent, respectively. Therefore, Senegal's democratic moment couldn't have happened at a better time. It provides a reason to cheer and an inspiration to move towards democracy for the rest of West Africa as well as the continent.
Samir Bhattacharya is Senior Research Associate at the Vivekananda International Foundation
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Samir Bhattacharya is an Associate Fellow at ORF where he works on geopolitics with particular reference to Africa in the changing global order. He has a ...
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