Now that the Opposition MDP-JO’s concerns about a smooth election and post-poll transition seem to be a thing of the past, attention naturally turns to the kind of dispensation Maldivian President-elect Ibrahim Mohamed ‘Ibu’ Solih may come to head. At the top of the list should be the specific roles that might be assigned – and would have to be assigned – to his Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) boss and former President, Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed and also the leaders of the three other parties that constitute the Joint Opposition (JO).
It is not unlikely that the JO leadership may have to consider the need and wisdom of setting up a coordination committee of some kind, in which the four party leaders have a key role along with President-elect Ibu, and possibly his successor coalition leader in Parliament. Included in the list is former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, whose Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM), which his half-brother and outgoing President Abdulla Yameen ended up hijacking, Jumhooree Party’s (JP) self-exiled founder Gasim Ibrahim and jailed religion-centric Adhaalath Party (AP) chairman Sheikh Imran.
Uppermost in the minds of Maldivian citizenry, political cadres and the international community is the specific role that Nasheed would be assigned in the new dispensation, or that which he would assign himself. The MDP has remained ‘Nasheed’s party’ to all cadres and most voters of the party, who anyway constitute the single largest constituency in the respective departments in the country. Thus, Nasheed has not only rights but also responsibilities to address the legitimate aspirations and expectations of those constituencies if the MDP has to continue remaining relevant in future elections and to future generations.
‘Prison leave’ and more
In post-poll media exchanges in Colombo, Nasheed said that he was eager to return to Male, to be able to participate in the Inauguration of ‘my friend’ Ibu. In an interview to
The Hindu, he also clarified that he and other JO leaders like him, either in prison or in self-exile or both, were in no hurry to return home, bending and violating the due processes of law and judiciary. In context, he made the right kind of politico-diplomatic move for outgoing President Yameen to grant him ‘prison leave’ to be able to attend Ibu’s Inauguration.
The question remains if Nasheed is granted ‘prison leave’ for the purpose, if the Yameen government and/or Judiciary would order his formal arrest, for violating court orders while on prison-leave for travelling to the UK for medical treatment, and also to complete the uncompleted long prison term in the ‘Judge Abdulla case’, pending the required legal and judicial reviews, as conceded by him in
The Hindu interview. The situation may not be any different in the case of other leaders like JP’s Gasim, who too had ‘jumped’ prison-leave and is in self-exile in Germany. In comparison, the untried case against jailed ex-President Gayoom, his parliamentarian-son Faaris Maumoon, and even that of AP’s Sheikh Imran could be less complicated.
‘Counsellor’ and coordination panel
The question would still remain as to the exact role that Nasheed and other JO leaders would have to take up under an Ibu-led dispensation. The temptation to compare Nasheed to Myanmar’s all-important State Counsellor and Foreign Minister, Aung Saan Suu Kyi, in the contemporary neighbourhood Asian context is unavoidable. It is unlikely that Nasheed would want to join the Cabinet but then a decisive role for him in matters of the Maldivian state and of the ruling coalition cannot be wished away, as much as his continued leadership and coordination within the MDP leader of the coalition.
So should there be a coordination committee of all the four party leaders, and not necessarily their second-in-commands, which could make it all the more complicated and less-productive. There could, however, be problems of pegging order, considering that Gayoom is the senior statesman with vast experience and greater international contacts, and Gasim has a larger voter-base after the MDP, at least until the former recaptures some of the Yameen’s. The coalition also needs to address the AP’s religion-centric concerns and considerations lest that constituency should look outward.
India-China relations
Between now and the parliamentary polls that are due next year in the normal course, the government and the ‘ruling coalition’ are going to be busy with seat-sharing and other issues of immediate electoral concern and political consequences. They will also have to make the restoration of democracy in the country a more visible part of the new presidency’s priority tasks.
As coalition leaders have often pointed out, Yameen’s five years of upending autocracy meant that ‘independent institutions’ set up under the 2008 Constitution were compromised more than ever through the decade since. The post-presidency legal and political handling of Yameen to the conviction of the coalition partners’ constituencies will also need to be handled, but with care than gay abandon, considering that he too has a substantial constituency to call his own, having polled a not-so-negligible 42 percent vote-share in the presidential polls.
In this milieu and melee, foreign relations may have to take a back seat, but not wholly and for long. After all, the President-elect and his coalition owe much of their political sustenance to the international community, including the larger Indian neighbour. While thanking the international community for their role in the restoration of democracy in Maldives, Nasheed made a specific reference to hosts Sri Lanka, where much of the JO political activities occurred, especially after presidential poll was announced.
Nasheed poll-eve reference to nations capable of intervening militarily to restore democracy in Maldives but were not unwilling to do so, did not get adequate coverage in the Indian media. Soon after, his oblique observation also got drowned in the din of Ibu’s victory. In a specific, post-victory reference, Nasheed later told
The Hindu that “Indian diplomats and officials are very smart...They too understand that we are we are smart and we can do business together”.
On the controversial China-funded projects brought in or initiated by the Yameen presidency, Nasheed had this to tell
The Hindu: “I can’t speak for the coalition, but my own views... None of the projects made business sense.... Our natural partners are countries like India,” he added, quipping along, “We have the same films, songs, books and food.”
If Nasheed took an ‘economy-centred view’ of the Chinese investments under Yameen, which was also of concern to India, the latter’s one-time Foreign Minister Dunya Maumoon, instead, had this to tell the
Times of India after Ibu’s victory: “India remains a close friend and will continue to be so. But India has to learn to respect a small country like Maldives. We may be tiny, but we don’t care for bullying tactics. We understand India’s security concerns as China has moved much closer here, and we will be sensitive to it.”
One of the twin-daughters of former President Gayoom, Dunya Maumoon quit the Yameen Government as Foreign Minister, citing not-so-convincing reasons, when India and the rest of the international community were agitated over democracy issues in her country. However, she returned to the Yameen Government as a junior minister in the Health Department not long after, flagging a credibility question overseas and confusing the limited number of her sympathisers nearer home.
“Our relations with China are very important,” Dunya Maumoon told the
Times of India. “But we have concerns, we would like to review our borrowings from China, whether we will be able to repay the loans, whether we might be slipping into a debt-bondage.” Dunya Maumoon also clarified that “we need external finance and expertise for infrastructure and development, and the Chinese currently have it. Our decisions with the external world will be determined keeping Maldives’ national interest in mind. We are looking for a more balanced relationship.”
The question remains if under an Ibu dispensation, Dunya would have a role to play – and if so, what kind of a role. On the all-important Foreign Ministry front, it is not unlikely that the MDP with specific short, medium and long-term views of the nation’s external relations and security approaches, would want to give up the portfolio to another coalition partner or its nominee. Within the MDP itself there are many (competent) claimants to the Foreign Minister’s job.
Not the same again
As Nasheed told
The Hindu and the rest of the international media, President-elect Ibu is a likable/lovable gentleman inside the country, respected within the party as a close aide and kin of the party boss, and by coalition partners as a no-nonsense man. However, his leadership qualities, going beyond his role as the MDP Leader of the Opposition and later of the JO in Parliament, remains to be tested.
Even more will be Ibu’s foreign policy decisions, given in particular his minimal interactions with international interlocutors through the past years. His choice of the first overseas destination as President may be a pointer, but need not say all. As may be recalled, soon after his return from India, on his maiden overseas visit as President, Yameen unveiled the nation’s new Foreign Policy Document in January 2014. From then on, the India-Maldives-China relations were not the same again.
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