Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on Mar 12, 2021
The rebel MPs seem to have concluded that the MDP cannot win the presidential polls with incumbent Solih as their candidate — Nasheed seems to be their favourite.
What do Maldivian Democratic Party ‘rebels’ plan for the party and the nation?

Signalling the shape of things to come ahead of the nation-wide local council (LC) polls, the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) has voted out yet another minister under President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih. With 64 out of the 71 present and voting in the 87-member House, a total of 59 MPs — most of them from the MDP — voted out the Minister of Communication, Science, and Technology, Maleeh Jamaal, belonging to the Jumhooree Party (JP), one of the partners in President Solih’s four-party coalition.

Maleeh had provoked the MPs, especially those from the MDP, who are sensitive to their parliamentary powers under the 2008 Constitution, by mentioning in a TV programme that some lawmakers seemed to think that they were the ones running the government. “Parliament cannot decide on the policy of the government,” he said, adding that he would not allow for a parliamentary system.

Ruling party MPs have been upset with Maleeh for his unwillingness to cut down internet rates. Even otherwise, he used to be the most targeted minister in Parliament. Many MDP parliamentarians tweeted their protests against Maleeh’s TV comments in strong and personalised terms. Amongst them, veteran MDP member, Hassan Afeef, called on ministers to fulfil their responsibilities and stated that Parliament had powers to hold them accountable, if they failed.

For months now, Nasheed is seen as the focus of a perceived ‘anti-government’ grouping within the MDP.

It did not stop there. Parliament Speaker Mohammed Nasheed, the former President and ruling MDP chief, kept on re-tweeting party members’ remarks. For months now, he is seen as the focus of a perceived ‘anti-government’ grouping within the MDP, with its 65 MPs in a total of 87. On earlier occasions, he had openly sided with the ‘rebels’ who wanted two ministers out, and had also added his own tweets in the mix.

Back against the wall: Increased pressure on Solih

With successive exits by ministers under MDP pressure, President Solih is finding himself increasingly pushed to the wall. He is under pressure now to prove his government’s larger popularity by ensuring its victory in the upcoming local council polls. The party rebels seem to have concluded that the purported unpopularity of the government would cost the MDP the LC polls in April, followed possibly by polls for the presidency (2023) and the Parliament (2024), unless visible correctives are put in place.

The rebel MPs seem to have concluded that the MDP cannot win the presidential polls with incumbent Solih as their candidate. Speaker Nasheed seems to be their favourite. However, the picture will become clear only at the time of the party primaries, which is generally held only weeks before the presidential polls. It is, however, unclear as to why and how the party has seemingly lost contact with the government, as was visible from day one.

The picture will become clear only at the time of the party primaries, which is generally held only weeks before the presidential polls.

Is it preposterous or pre-emptive?

The question may sound preposterous at the moment, but given the continuing rebellious mood of a majority of MDP parliamentarians, there is a need to anticipate any actions taken against President Solih, if  the party loses the local council polls badly. This does not mean that a defeat is on hand but the rebels’ reaction presages the same.

However, they seem to be indicating that if the MDP were to retain its primacy in the local council polls, it would owe not to the government’s performance, but their own proactive interventions from time to time. If it came down to it, the Solih camp’s reaction would be keenly watched and the outcome even more. Alternatively, the rebels, if they keep targeting individual ministers in the name of holding the government accountable could end up being seen as ‘spoilers’ by non-committed voters, especially beginning with the local council polls, but not ending there.

The Indian concerns

Truth be told, India, which has been maintaining the friendliest relations with the MDP-led Solih government, has nothing much to worry about when it comes to the internal contradictions within the ruling party and coalition. Solih, Speaker Nasheed, and other aspirants for the nation’s presidency are all pro-India, especially viz China and Pakistan. But the same cannot be said, if the current conflict within the MDP leads to a poll-reversal for the party, whatever may be the issue.

There is an academic question regarding the domestic politics in discussion in Maldives, which flows from the Indian constitutional model, but about which New Delhi has nothing to contribute.

Considering the huge Indian investments, including large-scale grants on physical and social infrastructure projects, any change of government in 2023, may, however, have the potential to negatively impact on bilateral ties. The Indian experience viz the predecessor administration of failed former President Abdulla Yameen is worth recalling. Until Yameen came to power in 2013, bilateral ties had peaked under President Maumoon Gayoom’s 30-year rule, followed by successor Nasheed’s aborted presidency (2008-12).

There is an academic question regarding the domestic politics in discussion in Maldives, which flows from the Indian constitutional model, but about which New Delhi has nothing to contribute. Speaker Nasheed is a strong advocate of the parliamentary form of government practised in India and other nations such as the UK. However, the current Maldivian scheme derives from the US scheme, with a directly elected President, with checks and balances also of the American kind.

One of the many problems is that Nasheed as the Speaker also seems to have assumed the inherent political powers of the Speaker of the US House of Representatives, him being the chief of the ruling party and also the single-most popular leader in the country. In a way, the inability and/or unwillingness of the President himself, from the days of Gayoom’s predecessor, Ibrahim Nasir, to shed the powers once vested in the sultan for a thousand long years, is the base of Maldives’ entire democracy crisis. This needs to be addressed, as even under a parliamentary scheme, the prime minister could assume and/or amass powers that are not of the office, unless the chosen leader consciously worked towards it.

Speaker Nasheed is a strong advocate of the parliamentary form of government practised in India and other nations such as the UK.

The democratic experiment has worked successfully in Bhutan because the King was the initiator of democracy and has guided the nation to stay that way; deliberately distancing himself from everyday affairs of governance, decision-making, and debates, both inside and outside the Parliament. Like the Maldives, Bhutan too ushered in democracy in 2008, but voluntarily and not through street protests, overseas interventions (by the UK), and negotiations.

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.

Author

N. Sathiya Moorthy

N. Sathiya Moorthy

N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.

Read More +