Despite the official narrative of a peaceful Jammu and Kashmir, the ground realities depict a rather different story.
The decision by the Jammu and Kashmir authorities to ban or restrict congregational prayers in the Jama Masjid and the Eidgah in Srinagar in connection with Eid is perhaps the best indicator that the situation in the Union Territory (UT) is far from normal. After the demotion of the state to a UT in August 2019 and the heavy deployment of security forces, the situation has settled into an ugly stability.
But the official narrative is that post the abrogation of Article 370 and the demotion of the state to a Union Territory, things have been improving dramatically. In an interview with the daily newspaper, Greater Kashmir, in early March, the Chief of the 15 Corps, Lt Gen D.P. Pandey said that “all the parameters of peace and prosperity are at their best”, and that there was a “new normal” phase which would be beneficial for the state.
In his visit to the UT in March, Union Home Minister Amit Shah had claimed on the basis of figures of terror incidents that there was an improvement in the security situation. He said that there had been a reduction in terror incidents from 417 in 2018 to 229 in 2021 and a decrease in the number of security forces killed from 91 to 42 in the same period. He said that there was every possibility that in a few years, the central paramilitary forces could be withdrawn from the state.
Equally, the heavy presence of security forces as well as their daily cycle of raids and operations can by no means be described as even approaching normality in the state.At the end of April, during his first visit to the UT since its creation, Prime Minister Modi promised the Kashmiri youth that “You will not see the miseries witnessed by your parents and grandparents…”But the PM, while inaugurating an INR 20,000-crore development programme, was frank enough to say that what was on offer was in prospect, the good times would unfold over the next 25 years.
Kashmiri Pandits continue to be targeted, as is evident from the shooting of Bal Krishan in his chemist’s store in Chotigam in Shopian area in early April. Protection is provided to the Pandits who ask for it, but it is difficult for them to live normal lives under such circumstances.The terrorists were allegedly wearing suicide vests and the police assessment was that they had infiltrated recently since they were captured with the standard equipment like satellite phones, guns, ammunition, a wireless set, packaged food, energy drinks, and medicines. Their mission was not so much to attack the PM’s rally, says the police, as to carry out a suicide attack elsewhere at the time to capture the headlines during the PM’s time in the UT. A day before that, on 21 April, Lashkar-e-Taiba commander, Yousuf Kantroo, was killed along with two other militants in an encounter in the Malwah area of Baramulla in north Kashmir. A few days after the PM’s visit, two militants belonging to the Al-Badr group were killed in a night-long operation in Kashmir’s Pulwama district. On the same day, an improvised explosive device was found on the highway in Jammu and defused. Earlier in the month, two militants, involved in a recent attack on the CRPF in Srinagar, were killed in a gunfight in the city.
Firing along the LAC was long used to facilitate infiltration and exfiltration, but the ceasefire that began in February 2021 has helped.In the past year, there had been an uptick in attacks against civilians. Amongst these were migrant workers, five of who were killed in a of two weeks in October 2021. In the same month, ML Bindroo was killed in his chemist’s shop in Srinagar. Perhaps the most shocking incident was the killing of two teachers, Supinder Kaur and Deepak Chand, on 7 October 2021. In February 2021, 25-year-old Aakash Mehra, who was associated with a popular restaurant in Srinagar was shot dead. The renewed targeting of minority Hindus began with the killing in December 2020, of Satpal Nischal, a 70-year-old who had ran a jewelry store in Srinagar for four decades and had just obtained a certificate under the new domicile law to purchase property in the state. A shadowy outfit called “The Resistance Front” claimed responsibility for many of the killings accusing the victims of being pawns in India’s occupation of Kashmir.
One of his motivators, Qari Anas persuaded him to come back for a refresher followed by a four-month intense course involving technical training which involved the use of GPS apps like Alpine Quest and matrix sheets for precisely navigating across the difficult terrain next to the LoC.The most serious incident in the past year was the bid by six Pakistani terrorists attempting to cross over the LoC into the Indian side in the Uri sector on 21 September 2021. The terrorists were intercepted at the border fence and four of them managed to get back, but their leader Qari Anas, from Attock in Punjab was killed and Ali Babar Patra was actually captured. The 18-year-old has provided the authorities with the all-too-familiar story of a background of grinding poverty and religious zeal that led him from Okara into the ranks of the LeT in 2019. Later in April 2021, one of his motivators, Qari Anas persuaded him to come back for a refresher followed by a four-month intense course involving technical training which involved the use of GPS apps like Alpine Quest and matrix sheets for precisely navigating across the difficult terrain next to the LoC. In essence, what he has told the authorities is that the Pakistani infrastructure for their proxy war against India remains functional. One of the big problems that the Kashmiri militancy now faces is that with the near-lethal cordon established by the Indian Army along the LoC, getting arms and ammunition into the Valley has become very difficult. The ISI has taken recourse to unconventional means like using drones to drop weapons and ammunition into the Valley. Beyond this uncomfortable security paradigm, the political situation in the Valley, too, continues to be uncertain. Aside from some development there, the overall situation has not improved. There is a limit to what a kinetics-only strategy, focusing on enhanced counter-insurgency operations, can achieve.
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Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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