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Closer India ties show NPP's pragmatic pivot, but opaque deals spark doubts about its inexperience in managing regional power imbalance.
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Bilateral relations between Sri Lanka and India have frequently fluctuated in response to domestic dynamics and foreign/external considerations, including global trends, political leadership, and ideological values. The foreign policy orientation under the Anura Kumara Dissanayake-led National People’s Power (NPP) has been marked by unexpected developments. While there were speculations that the NPP government would forge closer ties with China due to the Janatha Vimukthi Peramuna (JVP)’s historical ideological leanings with Beijing, it has undertaken concerted efforts to cultivate a mature and constructive relationship with India. This reorientation indicates how the party has relinquished its previous normative stance on India and adopted a more strategic and pragmatic foreign policy posturing.
The crisis offered India a strategic opportunity to revive its historical influence and push back against the Chinese heft.
The NPP was cognisant of India’s goodwill during the 2022 crisis by providing currency swaps, essential goods, grand assistance, deferred payments or lines of credit, and a prospective economic investment source and support. The crisis offered India a strategic opportunity to revive its historical influence and push back against the Chinese heft. New Delhi has also taken measures to better understand and engage the group, including extending an invitation to meet top Indian political, security and diplomatic leaders before the 2024 presidential elections. It underscored a shift in its political stance and acknowledgement of the NPP transformation into a formidable force in the country. Interviews and informal conversations with locals suggest that historical mistrust and suspicion toward India—stemming from its structural dominance and overwhelming regional presence—have diminished in recent years.
The NPP also took a policy reversal on renegotiating the debt sustainability agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). While it promised to revisit the deal during the 2024 election campaign, the regime decided to continue the programme brokered by the previous government because restarting discussions may slow the economic recovery. The policy departure showcased how the NPP conceded to the liberal economic space to gain ground with the business and middle-class groups—showcasing pragmatism and continuity.
The pragmatic and realist foreign policy approach undertaken by the NPP is commonly employed by small states experiencing structural disadvantages due to limited military strength, smaller domestic markets, constraints on the political arena and power asymmetries. Concurrently, they are staunch proponents of a rules-based order, lending importance to international and regional organisations that promote multilateralism, non-interference, and state sovereignty. These norms seek to reduce the dominance of big powers and the asymmetry between states.
Nonetheless, through their realist tendencies, big states often pressurise their smaller counterparts to choose alignment through economic pressure, political isolation or security agreements. While major powers viewed Colombo as an important state in their geopolitical strategies, the latter has used its strategic location to manage these complexities.
Small states, on the other hand, have adopted various strategies to safeguard their security, political, and economic interests. These include pursuing strategic nonalignment or seeking 'shelter' from major powers or blocs to offset their limited influence and gain political and security assurances.. Smaller local industries and limited production also create greater dependence on global trade and international supply chains. A bigger power may offer economic shelter to these states through loans, investments, favourable market access, and direct fiscal aid.
The former government—led by Ranil Wickremesinghe—also pursued a strategic foreign policy by actively engaging the West and India while maintaining economic ties with China.
The NPP’s pivot towards India may indicate that the government is seeking ‘shelter’ by continuing the foreign policy and economic trajectory the previous regime established to tackle the fiscal challenges and push for sustainable growth amid the crisis-recovery period. The former government—led by Ranil Wickremesinghe—also pursued a strategic foreign policy by actively engaging the West and India while maintaining economic ties with China. Colombo has also paid attention to India’s security concerns. For instance, the Jaffna Islands hybrid renewable project that was previously tendered to a Chinese company during Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s tenure was cancelled following objections from New Delhi, and was eventually given to the latter under a grant when Wickremesinghe was in power.
Several agreements and Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) have been forged between the neighbours across economic cooperation, energy, and security domains. Some include a bilateral defence MoU, a grid interconnectivity pact, the launch of a project to supply solar rooftop systems to religious centres in Colombo, and a tripartite MoU with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to develop an energy hub at Trincomalee port. Some of these agreements and MoUs were signed during Prime Minister (PM) Narendra Modi’s visit to Colombo on 6 April 2025. Alluding to the previously mentioned interviews, the author was also informed that the termination of the wind power project with the Adani Group in February 2025 did not greatly impact their bilateral relations.
However, the growing Indo-Sri Lanka bilateral cooperation has resulted in reasonable doubts over the perceived power imbalance in the form of some projects being more beneficial to India. There is limited information available regarding the details, scope, and nature of some of these projects, particularly the defence MoU signed during Modi’s recent visit to Colombo. The agreement was signed with an external power since the previous one with the United Kingdom (UK) in 1947 raised concerns on the lack of transparency, erosion of sovereignty, and India’s growing footprint in the country.
While energy-related projects which seek to integrate Colombo into India’s national energy grid through an undersea transmission line may appear to be a practical intervention to strengthen regional cooperation, bring cheaper electricity, and better grid stability, it has also brought worries that they would create economic and energy dependency in the long term. India’s large-scale generation capacity, which is attributed to its resource diversity, scale and well-developed infrastructure, could make locally generated power less competitive.
These fears can be traced to historical experiences of domination by big powers, particularly India’s hegemonic presence and interventionist past. Although New Delhi has projected itself as a stabilising force, there are strong perceptions that it has pushed for its strategic gains, undermining the sovereignty and autonomy of regional countries. These concerns among sections of the Sri Lankan society risk upending the goodwill India has gained in recent years.
Hundreds of Indian fishermen have reportedly been detained, tortured, arrested, and killed amid the tensions between the two countries.
There are also longstanding unresolved issues, particularly the trespassing of Indian bottom trawlers into Sri Lankan territorial waters and fishing rights around Kachchatheevu Island, that has brought economic and environmental concerns to the livelihoods and wellbeing of fishing communities and the marine resources. Indian fishermen have their grievances about the arrest and detention by the Sri Lankan navy. Hundreds of Indian fishermen have reportedly been detained, tortured, arrested, and killed amid the tensions between the two countries. While the NPP’s manifesto mentioned—‘discourage illegal fishing activities’—uncertainties over the new measures undertaken to resolve this maritime conflict persist.
These issues are unlikely to be accepted uncritically by segments of the Sri Lankan society that already perceive the NPP through a hypercritical and suspicious lens. They continue to cast scepticism on the government’s lack of experience in governance and politics, and perhaps its inability to navigate big power relations. This has manifested in the NPP’s somewhat disappointing performance at the recently held local council elections, especially in the Northeast, which saw traditional political parties—both in the South and North—making a political comeback following electoral setbacks at the parliamentary elections in 2024.
Although local government polls have different dynamics since they focus on regional issues, community services and factors such as caste affiliations, background of candidates and even village-level issues that hold greater weightage than national elections, the results indicate that the regime’s honeymoon period is over. A shift has occurred from the initial euphoria and support to a more sober, grounded and policy-centred engagement that will be more critical of the NPP’s policies going forward.
Roshni Kapur is a Doctoral Student at the University of Ghent, specialising in caste and land issues in Sri Lanka.
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Roshni Kapur is a Doctoral Student at the University of Ghent. She specialises in identity politics, transitional justice, post-war reconciliation, domestic and party politics of ...
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