Although stopping droughts completely remains a challenge, technological innovations and bolstering institutional and community-level capacities can substantially help reduce their impacts.
This article is a part of the essay series: Not the End of the World: World Environment Day 2024
The widespread negative impacts of the changing climate are gradually showing an upward trend sending strong signals to the world that it is on the verge of a climate emergency. The recent flash floods in Sikkim, the prolonged and severe drought in the greater Horn of Africa, the extreme heatwaves in South Asia, and unprecedented variation in weather patterns reflect that the planet is gradually approaching climate tipping points. In fact, some of the worst sufferers of climate-induced disasters have been the developing countries whose contributions have been the least towards such exigencies. As per the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), more than 90 percent of the extreme weather-related deaths in the last 50 years have been observed in vulnerable geographies (Figure 1).
Figure 1: Number of reported deaths (1970-2019)
Source: World Meteorological Organization
Moreover, the economic costs arising out of climate change continue to soar. For instance, research findings published by Rebecca Newman and Ilan Noy in the journal Nature Communications reveal that about US$ 143 billion per year of the costs of extreme events is attributable to climate change. This figure, if broken down further, amounts to US$ 16.3 million per hour. Utilising a data set of about 185 extreme weather events spanning from 2000 to 2019, the research found the economic costs totalling to about US$ 2.86 trillion, including damages to infrastructure, property, agriculture, and human health.
Approximately 55 million people across the world have been suffering from prolonged and persistent periods of drought. Indeed, with a burgeoning population and the unrestrained ambition for rapid growth and prosperity, water scarcity is a new normal affecting about 40 per cent of the global community. Posing significant threats to crops, livestock, and livelihoods, the agricultural sector bears the maximum brunt of droughts. Being the primary source of occupation and also a key driver of economic growth in a large part of the developing economies, agriculture takes in almost 80 percent of the direct impacts of drought with widespread effects on water availability, food production and security and rural livelihoods. Figure 2 illustrates the major drought hotspots worldwide covering recent events from 2019-2022. With 1.3 billion people or 40 percent of the population depending on agriculture for their sustenance, frequent droughts are naturally putting stress on the vulnerable and also reversing progress achieved in food security (SDG 3) and hunger (SDG 2). Further, poor rainfall patterns translate into poor growth for certain geographies. It has been observed that a rainfall deficit has a negative impact on GDP growth. For instance, according to the World Bank, in low and middle-income economies, drought at moderate levels reduces growth by 0.39 percentage points and extreme droughts decrease growth by 0.85 percentage points (here, the average growth rate is 2.19 per cent). Distributed unevenly across the globe which also vary significantly across and within countries/regions, developing economies have been suffering from disproportionate losses over a period of time. On the other, the risk of droughts for developed world has had a marginal impact on their overall GDP growth. Hence, recovery and restarting lives is an uphill task for the developing world. Indeed, the overall sustainability narrative is visibly in jeopardy.
Being the primary source of occupation and also a key driver of economic growth in a large part of the developing economies, agriculture takes in almost 80 percent of the direct impacts of drought with widespread effects on water availability, food production and security and rural livelihoods.
Figure 2: Global drought hotspots (2019-2022)
Source: World Bank
Although it is a challenge to completely stop droughts from occurring, technological innovations and bolstering institutional and community-level capacities can substantially help in reducing and managing their disastrous impacts.
Although it is a challenge to completely stop droughts from occurring, technological innovations and bolstering institutional and community-level capacities can substantially help in reducing and managing their disastrous impacts.
Led by and for the community
The involvement of local communities in combating droughts can play a vital role in accelerating climate action. Such initiatives not only encourage democratisation of processes and decentralisation of efforts but also offer decision-making power to the vulnerable who are the real sufferers. Community-led action also is in a better position to contextualise and understand the local sensitives, on ground realities, cultural roots and socio-economic factors that are critical for building robust partnerships towards climate action. For example, in the Indian state of Maharashtra, Paani Foundation has designed a competition Satyamev Jayate Water Cup—a water management competition between several villages of the gram panchayat. This incentivises and motivates the community towards sustainable water use and management in the long run.
Involving the philanthropy towards financing for drought adaptation
As observed, mitigation efforts have been preferred by funding agencies and development finance institutions (DFIs) over adaptation owing to several factors: a) The lack of risk apportion and estimation; b) the lack of incentives, particularly for the private sector for financing adaptation; c) the lack of local capacity to absorb and employ funding, etc. Here, philanthropy can act as that cog in the wheel by encouraging private enterprises and not-for-profit organisations to invest in drought resilience initiatives, thus addressing the challenges of meeting the sustainable development goals (SDGs). Philanthropy is known for working in close quarters with governments, businesses, think tanks and civil society for not only the generation of finance but also for mobilising knowledge and awareness about drought-related impacts. In this sense, advocacy and capacity building can complement each other.
As observed, mitigation efforts have been preferred by funding agencies and development finance institutions (DFIs) over adaptation owing to several factors.
Using digital innovations for drought predictions
With the advancements made in information and technology in recent years, the governments can utilise digital innovations to raise awareness, enhance knowledge and also increase the community’s resilience towards droughts. New technologies, such as satellite monitoring and artificial intelligence, offer much-needed guidance and precision for informed decisions. For instance, Information Technology and Indigenous Knowledge with Intelligence (ITIKI) is a drought early warning system utilising community knowledge and drought forecasting. This aids small-scale farmers in understanding crop patterns and prepare themselves against droughts. It has been reported that such models have proved to be 70 to 98 percent accurate for a period of four years as per trials conducted in Mozambique, Kenya, and South Africa.
South-South cooperation for resilience
Development partnerships occupy a pivotal position in tackling sustainability challenges. In fact, with the setback in sustainability progress, development partnerships are no longer a moral obligation. It has become a development imperative. Southern-driven partnerships led by India, China, Brazil, and Indonesia, to name a few have triggered a vital conversation on redesigning the norms of global development. In this context, bolstering South-South cooperation for sharing best practices, capacity building, skills transfer, and technology innovations can help create an ideas lab to understand and prioritise the concerns of the drought-prone geographies.
Swati Prabhu is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Dr Swati Prabhu is Associate Fellow with the Centre for New Economic Diplomacy at the Observer Research Foundation. Her research explores the interlinkages between development ...
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