As mass unrest rages and intermittent military rule takes over Bangladesh, the geopolitical implications for neighbouring countries, especially India, will be significant.
Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who ruled the country for the past 15 years and was re-elected for a fifth term in January 2024, has resigned from her position and left the country for a ‘safer place’, as protestors stormed her official residence, burnt her office, and sieged the Parliament, marking a dramatic close to a seemingly ‘near-permanent’ political rule. As mass unrest rages and the future of the country is questioned with an intermittent military rule taking over Bangladesh, the geopolitical implications of this domestic tumult will be significant for neighbouring nations, particularly India, with which it shares its longest international boundary. The past decade has been one of the most important in the India-Bangladesh relationship, ushering in a ‘Golden Chapter’ in bilateral cooperation. However, the fate of India-Bangladesh relations will be tested in recent circumstances, as an apolitical month-long student protest which took on the colours of a mass movement has brought the nation to a standstill and is set to redefine South Asian politics.
In July this year, a judgement was passed by the Supreme Court of Bangladesh, in favour of reinstating an abolished quota reserving top government jobs for descendants of the freedom fighters who had fought in Bangladesh’s Liberation War of 1971. In a country facing mass unemployment, and high inflation at andue to the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, the verdict sparked protests from students across the country to reduce the quota from 30 percent. The protest at Dhaka University turned violent when the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of the ruling Awami League, clashed with demonstrators, following a controversial comment from the former PM, who asked, “If jobs aren't reserved for freedom fighters, then who should they be reserved for? Children of Razakars?”—a reference to those who had opposed the ‘Muktijuddho’ of 1971.
The protest at Dhaka University turned violent when the Bangladesh Chhatra League, the student wing of the ruling Awami League, clashed with demonstrators, following a controversial comment from the former PM.
While the government tried to control the situation with both pressure and promises, the increasing clashes between the protestors and the police, Border Guards Bangladesh, and the army which was authorised to shoot at sight amidst a nationwide curfew, unleashed carnage, leaving over a hundred people dead. The Supreme Court's definitive ruling, which subsequently lowered the quota to 5 percent, did little to placate the protesters. Their demands had by then expanded to include a comprehensive probe into the violence, accountability for those responsible, and the resignation of culpable officials, accompanied by a public apology from PM Hasina, thereby escalating the agitation further.
Lately, public discontentment has been brewing against the Awami League government in Bangladesh, due to its controversial electoral victories in polls and charges of corruption and nepotism. The resentment has been especially palpable since the January elections which witnessed a voter turnout as low as 40 percent. The protests eventually gave vent to this discontentment and the demand for PM Hasina’s resignation was its final manifestation. However, the domestic disappointment that embodied Dhaka and the country at large, contrasts India’s favour of the Hasina government and its apprehensions that have surfaced with her departure.
Former PM Hasina’s unbroken tenure had brought political stability to Bangladesh, contributing to a secure neighbourhood. Her government's uncompromising 'zero tolerance' stance against the insurgent groups sheltered in Bangladesh, which frequently caused disturbances in India’s neighbouring Northeastern territories, particularly helped New Delhi. However, PM Hasina’s recent exit which coincides with the resurgence of extremist factions in Bangladesh, such as with the return of the once-banned Jamaat-e-Islami to the political forefront, poses renewed concerns for India over the security of the Northeast. Due to the civil unrest that is now raging in Bangladesh, India has already sealed its borders and the police and Border Security Force have increased security with a 24/7 vigil. A high alert has been declared along the border to avoid spillovers, as reports also arrive of violence against Hindu minorities who may want to flee the country.
Due to the civil unrest that is now raging in Bangladesh, India has already sealed its borders and the police and Border Security Force have increased security with a 24/7 vigil.
Beyond the immediate security concern, the end of the Hasina rule also creates uncertainty about the fate of India-Bangladesh developmental projects, especially connectivity initiatives. These projects, which have surged in recent years, include enhancing maritime trade for India's landlocked Northeastern states via Bangladesh's Chattogram and Mongla seaports, rebuilding age-old connectivity links severed during the 1947 Partition, and expanding roads, rails, inland waterways, and air links. As each other's largest trading partners in South Asia, with strong familial ties between citizens, these initiatives are essential for deepening bilateral cooperation. As a part of the Bay of Bengal Regional Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), the regional organisation devoted to the Bay of Bengal, India and Bangladesh were also supposed to sign a multilateral maritime transportation agreement to increase regional trade and connectivity, at the upcoming 6th BIMSTEC Summit meeting in September. However, the prospects of these are now uncertain.
The fine diplomatic balance that the Hasina government had for so long retained in its engagements between India and China, therefore, runs the risk of becoming askew in favour of Beijing, a possibility that New Delhi must be cautious of as Bangladesh is vital for its foreign policy aspirations.
Connectivity aside, in the past decade, India and Bangladesh have collaborated across multiple domains, ranging from energy and defence to health, climate change, and disaster management. The enduring political stability in Dhaka had propelled India, like many other countries, to invest in Bangladesh, through foreign direct investments and aid, to tap into the country’s geostrategic position in the Indo-Pacific. New Delhi has, therefore, been a part of Dhaka’s economic boom in recent years, which the World Bank appreciated as its “remarkable journey of poverty reduction and development.” However, with the political situation altered in Bangladesh, speculations are rife about the future of this developmental partnership. The Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)—the Opposition to the former Awami League government known for discernibly being pro-China. It endorsed the anti-India and ‘Boycott Indian goods’ campaign that had gripped Bangladesh in recent months. The fine diplomatic balance that the Hasina government had for so long retained in its engagements between India and China, therefore, runs the risk of becoming askew in favour of Beijing, a possibility that New Delhi must be cautious of as Bangladesh is vital for its foreign policy aspirations.
The thriving bilateral ties with Bangladesh under PM Hasina's leadership have contributed significantly to the success of India's ‘Neighbourhood First’ and ‘Act East’ policies which complete a decade this year. Although her departure draws the curtains on this ‘Golden Chapter’, the unchanging geographical reality remains—Bangladesh will continue to share a border with India, making them natural partners, bound together by contiguous territories, cultural ties, and a common future. Therefore, peaceful coexistence and collaboration between the two nations are essential, as they navigate a new era in their relationship.
Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Sohini Bose is an Associate Fellow at Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Kolkata with the Strategic Studies Programme. Her area of research is India’s eastern maritime ...
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