The rightward shift in European politics is not the death of democracy but its victory. As an instrument of aspirations, democracy is a self-correcting mechanism. As an institution, it delivers a peaceful change of leadership through the power of vote. On their side, voters are not irrational but discerning stakeholders, seeking the best among a variety of choices. In a rather simplistic Left-Right binary of choices imposed on its citizens, it is the excesses and the ineffectiveness of the Left that have paved the way for the Right. But the keyword is not ‘Right’—it is ‘change’. As the UK election results show, it is the Left that is returning to power.
Nothing new is happening in Christian Europe. Surprise, maybe; novelty, absolutely not. In fact, had this change not happened, Europe would have fulfilled the criterion of its democracy labelling games—a soft power weapon it has used to support its geopolitics. V-Dem, for instance, labels democracies under four heads—closed autocracies (such as China or Saudi Arabia), electoral autocracies (Russia or Ukraine), electoral democracies (Brazil or Poland), and liberal democracies (Germany, France, or Italy).
From India, which is labelled as an electoral autocracy, we see the rightward swing in Europe’s politics depict not the end of the world, but voting-as-usual. The surprise is in a small band of Left-leaning ideologues, who are unwilling to accept this change. The fact that politics is unable to engage politically with what voters want shows a level of intolerance, unbecoming of ‘liberal democracies’ or even ‘electoral democracies’. They are resonating more with ‘closed autocracies’ or ‘electoral autocracies’.
Riots replacing choices, and violence following victories, in the run-up to and as a consequence of elections, is one aspect of Europe’s descent into authoritarianism. Crafted in sophisticated vocabulary, democratic discourse in Europe had been veering towards China and becoming a blot on democratic traditions. One country after another, one election at a time, political engagement is getting shallower by the day in a geography that falsely contends to be the creator of democracy..
What is being seen as Europe’s swing to the ‘Right’ needs a closer examination, not merely in the political shift or the accompanying violence but an unexplored expansion of aspirations that are not bound within the trivialised Left-Right duel. What is being seen as a rightward shift is really a political ricochet of the incompetence and weakness of successive Left governments to resolve core issues that their citizens face. It is a convergence towards the demand of fixing problems that have been swept under the carpet of Left-dominated virtue-signalling ideology. This, in turn, has hollowed out the state and rendered it ineffective on issues beyond welfarism, the loudest of which is immigration.
Overall, Europe has been the fourth-most accepting nation for immigrants—the top three are Russia, the United States (US) and India. Europe has welcomed immigrants and refugees, sympathised with their alleged victimhood, and provided them food, shelter, and opportunities, at the expense of its taxpayers, much like Russia, the US and India. But statistically, the number of illegal immigrants in the big three of Europe (France, Germany and the UK) combined number less than one-third of those in India. That said, all three—the US, India and Europe—are unable to deal with illegal immigration, neither its prevention nor its management.
Overall, Europe has been the fourth-most accepting nation for immigrants—the top three are Russia, the United States (US) and India. Europe has welcomed immigrants and refugees, sympathised with their alleged victimhood, and provided them food, shelter, and opportunities, at the expense of its taxpayers, much like Russia, the US and India.
Illegal immigrants are emboldened by frozen governments and have weaponised Europe’s laws against itself. Germany is facing “societal dysfunction” because of mass immigration. Italy’s tolerance is waning with the rising cases of rapes by immigrants. France is rethinking immigration following the stabbing of a French teacher last year, and the vote is being called the “long-delayed effect of jihadist terrorist attacks”. Spain is seeing the unabated and unregulated influx of refugees as an attack on its “territorial integrity”. Ireland experienced riots and is breaking up with its immigration romance through the “end of the ‘Irish welcome’”. What was being seen as Europe’s clash of civilisations in end-2023 is now a clear political verdict in favour of the right.
As a necessary condition, states begin by providing an efficient law and order infrastructure. But over time, necessity loses relevance. It gets taken for granted. Comforts begin to get a higher priority over security. Europe has become addicted to those comforts—a wealthy economy, a high per capita income, socialist public goods such as schools and healthcare, social security, job security, and low inflation. The intrusion by immigrants fleeing from alleged atrocities—mostly military-aged men, not women or children that have created another “man problem”—was taken in stride. Afraid of narratives, new laws have been enacted that grant protections to, but seek no responsibilities from immigrants., several of who in turn want to convert the liberal, open, freedoms of Europe into the dark, lawless, regressive religious backgrounds they sought refuge from in the first place.
The common thread binding these incidents and anecdotes across Europe is neither misgovernance by the Left nor the resultant reaction of great expectations from the Right. It is a global phenomenon that, barring a few exceptions such as Poland, is unable to deal with the responsibilities that accompany power. The first role of the state, for instance as the Parliament of Australia has articulated and which all voters in democracies expect from their leaders, is to provide security and law and order for its citizens. When that contract breaks down, as can be seen in Europe, the ballot becomes the only key to change. As of now, the faith of the silent majority in the Left has been destroyed. Thus, the shift to what is seen to be the alternative, in this case, Right.
The common thread binding these incidents and anecdotes across Europe is neither misgovernance by the Left nor the resultant reaction of great expectations from the Right. It is a global phenomenon that, barring a few exceptions such as Poland, is unable to deal with the responsibilities that accompany power.
This “swing to the Right” is really a call of the continent to an alternative from whom it expects delivery of law and order. Politicians, in their bid to serve their constituents, may quite likely act in a manner that makes the pendulum swing the other way. Legitimate migrants who have entered through the front door may get swept in the anti-immigrant wave. There could be excessive force used to further consolidate the legitimacy of voters. Worse, people who have extended help to genuine victims through ‘inclusiveness’ may now shift towards an ‘othering’, potentially powered by a new politics. Or, in the hands of mature politicians, Europe may sign a new contract and create a new equilibrium, underlined by better behaviour.
Irrespective, over the next five years, as far as threats to democracy go, Europe is the geography to watch out for and remain alert to—it is in danger of receding into what it has been labelling a rich, deep, and healthy democracy like India for decades now. Effectively, a political-ideological snake is now eating its own tail.
Gautam Chikermane is Vice President at the Observer Research Foundation.
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