Large-scale protests have erupted in Khabarovsk Krai of the Russian Far East since 11 July, with protestors assembling in its various cities to challenge the arrest of their regional governor Sergei Furgal. The governor has been ordered into a pre-trial detention of two months by a Moscow court on charges of allegedly ordering murders of businessmen 15 years ago.Furgal, a member of the nationalist right wing Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) who had been elected to the post in September 2018, has denied the charges levelled against him.
The region that voted out the ruling-United Russia candidate in the last gubernatorial election and then handed LDPR the control of the regional duma as well as the Khabarovsk city duma has now seen daily protests against the arrest of the governor. On 11 July, different estimates suggest crowds numbering 10,000- 40,000 came out in the city of Khabarovsk demanding freedom for Furgal and raising anti-Putin slogans. Apart from this, protests have also been reported from other regional cities like Komsomolsk-on-Amur, Bikin and Amursk. In scenes that have been described as ‘unprecedented,’daily protests have since continued with varying levels of participation.
"The region that voted out the ruling-United Russia candidate in the last gubernatorial election and then handed LDPR the control of the regional duma as well as the Khabarovsk city duma has now seen daily protests against the arrest of the governor"
Coming days after the successful completion of the nationwide constitutional referendum vote, which now allows President Vladimir Putin to stand for two more terms in office, the timing of the arrest has been particularly noteworthy. As noted earlier, Furgal had become the governor in 2018 after defeating the incumbent United Russia candidate Vyacheslav Shport, who was appointed in 2009 and re-elected in 2013. At the time, he had defeated Furgal, garnering 63.9 percent of the vote as opposed to the latter’s 19.1 percent. However, the situation was reversed in 2018 when there was no clear winner in the first run-off and the second round led to victory of Furgal with 69.6 percent of the votes.
The protest vote was attributed to anger among the people regarding raising of retirement age in 2018 and ‘a number of new proposed taxes.’ This resulted in a backlash against the ruling party, leading to United Russia (UR) candidates being defeated in four regional elections that year. This was an important signal in a system where since the restoration of gubernatorial elections in 2012, only one opposition candidate had managed to win ‘in the past six years.’
In fact, the victory in Khabarovsk was not a development that had been envisioned even by the LDPR. Before the 2018 run-off, Furgal was considered a ‘technical candidate’ against the UR candidate, a pretence that worked well in 2013.Even the 2018 election that he won, Furgal had before the voting advertised his support of Shport and run a very low volume campaign. This was interpreted as a quid pro quo, where during his past candidature for State Duma, UR did not even field a candidate ensuring his victory. In fact, most of Furgal’s actions were in line with the party’s national stance where the LDPR has been labelled the ‘loyal opposition’ for its support of the ruling party and the Kremlin.
None of these tactics are new for Russia, where ‘in 13 of the 16 gubernatorial elections’ in 2017, only those candidates were allowed to challenge the incumbent governors who did not pose any threat. This strategy of manipulating the selection of candidates and influencing the registration of candidates has been a common feature in recent years to avoid serious charges of voting fraud and give the impression of a fair electoral process. The result of these moves was seen in substantial UR victories including ‘19 out of 21 gubernatorial elections in 2015, all seven in 2016 and all 16 in 2017.’
However, having won the first round in 2018, Furgal refused to back down from the run-off election and as analysts note, since his victory, he has capitalized on the opportunity to ‘become a populist governor.’In Khabarovsk, the 2018 upset was followed in 2019 by further losses for UR which lost control of the city and the regional duma. In the former, 34 out of 35 seats went to LDPR while in the regional duma, LDPR gained a majority getting 56.12% of votes followed by the Communist Party and United Russia with 17 and 12 percent respectively in the party list. In the single mandate districts in the regional duma, LDPR won 22 out of 24 seats.
Thus, in the absence of administrative resources available to the Kremlin to ensure electoral victory, the UR vote fell sharply. This despite the fact that UR members campaigned for several months not under the party banner, but rather under a newly-formed ‘Time for Change.’ However, the movement failed to take off. The State Duma by-election seat in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, which fell vacant due to election of Furgal to the post of governor, also went to an LDPR member in 2019. A poll in the same year estimated UR’s approval rating in Khabarovsk at 21 percent, whereas the national average stood at 34 percent.
"In the absence of administrative resources available to the Kremlin to ensure electoral victory, the UR vote fell sharply. This despite the fact that UR members campaigned for several months not under the party banner, but rather under a newly-formed ‘Time for Change.'"
This has now resulted in the entire regional power structure being under the control of an opposition party. The decision in December 2018 to shift the capital of the Far Eastern Federal District from Khabarovsk to Vladivostok has been interpreted as a snub for refusing to elect the right person, much to the chagrin of local populace. The powers-to-be are also viewed to be miffed at the low level of voting turn-out in the recently held constitutional referendum - even though 62.28 percent votes cast did vote in favour of the amendments. Only 44.23 percent of eligible voters in Khabarovsk region cast their vote, while the national average was at 67 percent.
Some indications of what was coming were seen in the case opened against former Governor Viktor Ishaev, a supporter of Furgal as well as the arrest of the governor’s former business associate. While the charges against Furgal are not entirely implausible in his past as a businessman in the lawless 1990s, people have been asking questions about their appearance 15 years later, especially because the governor has served as a member of the national State Duma three times before 2018 without any hindrance.
In order to deal with the evolving situation in Khabarovsk, Deputy Prime Minister Yury Trutnev who is also in charge of the Far Eastern Federal District, has now reached the region. He is reported to have ‘blamed local officials’ for ‘region's poor investment climate and other issues.’ An industrialized region, 80 percent of Khabarovsk’s population lives in urban centers, with manufacturing and agriculture dominating the economy followed by mining. The slowing down of the Russian economy has in recent years ‘disproportionately hit’the region, especially the manufacturing sector in Khabarovsk after 2015, with Covid-19 pandemic worsening the situation.
All these factors over a period of time have now come together, resulting in large-scale public outcry in support of Furgal in a case widely seen as politically motivated. In the past, the Kremlin has allowed for protests that focus on specific socio-economic issues but have moved strongly against overtly political ones. Given that Khabarovsk protestors have been consistently raising anti-Putin slogans and because there remains a potential for these spreading to other cities and regions of Russia, they are unlikely to be taken lightly by Moscow.
"Given that Khabarovsk protestors have been consistently raising anti-Putin slogans and because there remains a potential for these spreading to other cities and regions of Russia, they are unlikely to be taken lightly by Moscow"
While dealing with these protests in a single region might not be a difficult proposition for Russian authorities, the public mood ahead of regional elections in 2020 and parliamentary elections in 2021 remains an important consideration. Already, protests are taking place in Moscow and St. Petersburg against the recently passed constitutional amendments. Given the worsening economic situation and falling ratings of United Russia, this becomes even more critical for a system seeking to maintain its control over a carefully managed democracy.
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Nivedita Kapoor is a Post-doctoral Fellow at the International Laboratory on World Order Studies and the New Regionalism Faculty of World Economy and International Affairs ...
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