Multiple geopolitical crises erupting worldwide have set the stage for a turbulent 2025 in the South Caucasus
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This article is a part of the essay series “Budapest Edit”
The stage has been set for a turbulent year in the South Caucasus. The European Union has made a strategic mistake by delegitimising the Georgian Dream government and now risks losing a key ally in the region. With the fall of the Assad regime in Syria and a possible de-escalation in Ukraine, Russia may attempt to fill this vacuum and regain its influence in Armenia, too. Iran, another regional power that suffered significant blows to its political-military alliance in the Middle East, is also interested in returning to the previous status quo in the region. Azerbaijan, an emerging local power, is ready to seize any opportunity to further strengthen its positions, both economically and militarily, with the support of Türkiye.
South Caucasian geopolitics, however, have recently been globalised. India emerged as the number one weapons supplier of Armenia, and Israel for Azerbaijan, while Baku and Islamabad also explored a wide range of military cooperation. China is engaging more and more in the region, having signed strategic partnership agreements with both Georgia and Azerbaijan since 2023. The South Caucasus is a key bottleneck region for the Belt and Road Initiative, which resulted in the first instance of defence cooperation talks between the Chinese and the Azeri militaries. Although France attempts to project itself as a key ally of Armenia, it is short on any hard power or actual influence, just as the strengthened EU Monitoring Mission along the Armenia-Azerbaijan border. Energy security considerations will be key for the future of the political and military alliance system of the region. The next US administration could prove to be a gamechanger in the South Caucasus—should the next president’s administration realise the geostrategic importance of the region, a normalisation of US-Georgia relations and accelerated mediation procedures between Baku and Yerevan may be experienced.
Péter Pál Kránitz is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs
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Péter Pál Kránitz is a Senior Research Fellow at the Hungarian Institute of International Affairs, specializing in Armenia, the Caucasus, forced migration, and genocide research. ...
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