In 2025, Europe’s centres of influence might start moving from the West to Central and Eastern Europe
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This article is a part of the essay series “Budapest Edit”
2025 will likely mark a turning point for the Western order. With Donald Trump reclaiming the United States (US) presidency, European capitals are bracing for another round of "America First" policies, which will dramatically affect transatlantic ties. Meanwhile, elections in France and Germany will test the resilience of Europe’s traditional power brokers. Both countries face surging hard right movements, mounting economic challenges, and populations increasingly sceptical of European Union (EU) orthodoxy.
As the Western core falters, power in Europe is shifting eastward to countries like Poland and Hungary. The once-cohesive Visegrád Group has largely collapsed as a geopolitical unit, with diverging priorities fracturing its unity. However, something new is emerging—a looser, more flexible alignment of Central and Eastern European states driven by shared security concerns, economic interests, and cultural values. Poland, rapidly militarising and emboldened by its leadership in rallying support for Ukraine, is asserting itself as a regional power. Hungary, though more ambivalent about Ukraine, continues to leverage its unique geopolitical position to blend conservative values with pragmatic diplomacy.
This eastward shift reflects deeper structural changes in Europe’s geopolitics. Central Europe’s rising states are increasingly indispensable to any vision of the continent’s future. While they may not yet coalesce into a formal bloc, their influence is unmistakable. As Western Europe grapples with internal divisions, these nations are stepping into the power vacuum, shaping Europe’s response to a multipolar world.
2025 may not be the year the liberal order collapses, but it could be the year its rhythm begins to shift a new beat—one defined less by Brussels and more by Warsaw and Budapest. The future of the West may now hinge on the East’s ability to redefine it.
Carlos Roa is a Contributing Editor at The National Interest, where he previously served as Executive Editor.
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Carlos Roa is a Contributing Editor at The National Interest, where he previously served as Executive Editor. He is also an Associate Washington Fellow at ...
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