Situation in Afghanistan in the Context of Insurgency and Changing Nature of War

Lt Gen (retd.) David Barno, Director, Center for North-East and South Asia (NESA) at the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. along with Col (retd.) Jack Gill, also of the same center, visited ORF on 18 April 2008. LTG Barno made a presentation on "Situation in Afghanistan in the Context of Insurgency and Changing Nature of War".

Lt Gen (retd.) David Barno, Director, Center for North-East and South Asia (NESA) at the National Defense University, Washington, D.C. along with Col (retd.) Jack Gill, also of the same center, visited ORF on 18 April 2008. LTG Barno made a presentation on “Situation in Afghanistan in the Context of Insurgency and Changing Nature of War”. Col Gill made a supplementary presentation on the same subject, elaborating on the situation in and implications for Pakistan. The meeting was presided over by Lt Gen (retd.) Vinayak Patankar, Distinguished Fellow at ORF.

Major points that flowed from the presentations made by LTG Barno and Col Gill are:

• The unconventional war fighting by the ‘coalition of the willing’ in Afghanistan has slowly changed from a direct conventional fighting in a of half a decade. This suggests that the United States is slowly learning various nuances of ground level problems inherent in Afghanistan and adjoining region and trying to strategize its operations, which may be termed as ‘war fighting among the populace’. Counter insurgency operations should ideally constitute 20 percent military and 80 percent other methods, the latter includes persuasive tactics, economic and political engagement and reconstruction efforts.
• The presence of the United States, NATO forces and broader coalition forces is likely to remain beyond the Afghan national elections in 2009, which otherwise suggests that the US feels that the war-torn Afghanistan needs stability and the US also needs to protect the whole region for strategic reasons. This may lead to conflict of interests among major players including Russia, China and India in future.
• Pakistan is slowly coming back to normalcy. However, long-term stability factor in Pakistan still eludes policy makers at world capitals. The US has vital interests in Pakistan and is likely to be engaged in making Pakistan a viable and peaceful state.

Questions from the floor revolved around US interests and intentions in the region, employment of humanitarian factors in US-led operations, Russian and Chinese reactions to the US presence in the region. The speakers explained that situation and complexities associated in the region necessitated a long-term presence of the US in Afghanistan and involvement in stabilization process in Pakistan. They also emphasized that the war effort was not to gain strategic mileage but to make genuine contributions toward peace and stability in the region, to which the general perception in the region finds hard to accept.

Lt Gen Patankar made the closing remarks and thanked the speakers.

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