Where Does India Stand In the Indo-Pacific Nuclear Tinderbox?

There has been some talk about the Chinese now targeting Australia in their nuclear scheme of things. But these are somewhat overstated. In contrast to the US and the UK, China retains a “no first use” pledge in relation to nuclear weapons. Second, the profile of its arsenal is such that it can, at best, have a retaliatory capability as compared to the massive US arsenal that could, theoretically, be used for a first strike. Tensions are high all through the Indo-Pacific, especially its northeast quadrant. Here we have an officially recognised nuclear weapons power — China — as well as an unofficial one, North Korea, which has made it a point to threaten its southern neighbour and Japan with its nuclear weapons and missiles. China has a small maritime dispute with South Korea and a major one over the Senkaku (Diaoyu) islands with Japan.

In mid-September, North Korea said it tested a strategic cruise missile that could easily evade the network of ballistic missile defences that the South Koreans, Japanese and Americans have established. The South Koreans did some messaging of their own through a successful test of a submarine-launched ballistic missile. South Korea has no nuclear weapons, but the betting is that prolonged tensions with North Korea could possibly push South Korea, and possibly even Japan, over the nuclear threshold. The experience of the Trump years has rattled both countries and this could have consequences for nuclear proliferation in the future. Another major point of tension is Taiwan. China claims sovereignty over the island and has not ruled out the use of force in achieving unification. Aggressive Chinese actions, including flying fighter jets into its air defence space, are part of Beijing’s tough tactics. Temperatures have been rising perceptibly for other reasons as well. In recent months, the Japanese have hinted that they could play a role in defending Taiwan. Last month, President Biden also declared that the US would defend it if it were attacked, but the Americans later backtracked. The official US-Japanese position on defending the island is ambiguous, and these statements have only enraged Beijing which claims sovereignty over the island republic and has not ruled out the use of force in asserting it.