Author : Kabir Taneja

Originally Published The Hindu Published on Jan 18, 2025

Despite the complexities, the international community must play its role by pushing for the sustainability of this deal

The multiple layers of the Gaza ceasefire

Image Source: Getty

Just days before the swearing-in of United States President-elect Donald Trump, and a few hours before outgoing President Joe Biden gave his final address to the American people on January 15, 2025, Israel and Hamas announced that the long-elusive ceasefire agreement over Gaza had been struck. The state of Qatar, long stuck in between as a mediator, said the deal was to take effect from January 19, 2025, a day before Mr. Trump takes charge. An exchange of Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners is at the centre of this arrangement.

The deck and the cards

The news of the agreement saw Palestinians in Gaza take to the streets in celebration, having faced death and destruction at the hands of the Israeli military whose response to the October 7, 2023 terror attack went on for over 15 months even as political deadlocks continued. In a statement, Hamas has highlighted that the movement “dealt with all responsibility and positivity, based on its responsibility towards our patient and steadfast people in the honorable Gaza strip, by stopping the Zionist aggression against them and putting an end to the massacres and war of genocide to which they are being subjected”.

In Washington DC, Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden reportedly worked in unison to deliver the deal even as both tried to lap up the credit. For Mr. Trump, who previously demanded that such a deal be reached before his presidency, this was a marketable advertising of renewed American strength as promised in his election campaign. For Mr. Biden, it is an attempt to salvage legacy.

Mr. Trump prioritises personality over policy. Agreeing to this deal with Hamas is offering Mr. Trump a victory at potentially big domestic costs for Mr. Netanyahu.

The joker in this geopolitical deck is Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Amidst misplaced perceptions that Mr. Trump would allow Mr. Netanyahu a longer leash to continue his military operations in Gaza unabated, opinion prevailed that anyone but Mr. Biden would be good for both stemming the ongoing conflicts and reigning in Israel’s military posturing. It is in all likeliness not a coincidence that the Israeli leadership agreed to the deal — which, in parallel with Hamas, it has scuttled many times — to send a message of partnership and resolve to Mr. Trump.

Why Mr. Netanyahu would go out of the way to court Mr. Trump, even after the Israeli leader was invited by the Republicans to address a joint session of Congress in July 2024, is a question that has a simple answer. Mr. Trump prioritises personality over policy. Agreeing to this deal with Hamas is offering Mr. Trump a victory at potentially big domestic costs for Mr. Netanyahu. For long, Mr. Netanyahu has maintained that only a complete victory over Hamas is acceptable. With this deal, he becomes an Israeli Prime Minister who has cut a political settlement with the arch foe, but without a complete elimination of Hamas.

On Hamas and Israel

There is no doubt that Hamas and also Hezbollah in Lebanon have had their capacities diminished over the past year after leadership decapitation operations conducted by Israel.

Simultaneously, outgoing U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has also said that assessments show that Hamas has recruited as many new militants as it has lost. The lack of a political track acting as insurance for the ceasefire remains a concern. Hamas is expected to continue to be in control of Gaza in the time to come as barely any movements have taken place to reorganise Palestinian politics in a way where the group can be brought under a wider and more mainstream Palestinian-led political ecosystem.

Hamas, by itself, will remain steadfast in its ideology against Israeli security and sovereignty, while Hamas and Israel continue to remain on the same page against a two-state solution, despite a global push for this being the only viable option available for lasting peace.

Hamas is expected to continue to be in control of Gaza in the time to come as barely any movements have taken place to reorganise Palestinian politics in a way where the group can be brought under a wider and more mainstream Palestinian-led political ecosystem.

The prevailing situation of this status quo, despite the ceasefire, can be leveraged by Mr. Netanyahu in case Hamas resumes attacks against Israeli territories and populations. In such a situation, Mr. Netanyahu will be able to approach Mr. Trump from a vantage point, having agreed to the Hamas deal. A return to retaliatory tactics at this juncture will in all likeliness come with the full support of Mr. Trump, manoeuvring the Israeli position back to one of strength — like one it enjoyed under Mr. Biden. Previously, Mr. Trump has publicly stated that there would be ‘hell to pay’ for Hamas if Israeli hostages, which includes American citizens, are not released.

Gaza and its rebuilding

Beyond the political intricacies of this ceasefire arrangement, the most important deliverable would be that of critical aid to the people in Gaza as food and medical shortages surpassed criticality a long time ago. Beyond the aid front, the rebuilding of Gaza may yet be a premature discussion until alternative political mechanisms are envisioned within the Palestinian fold. This is where the Arab powers have an opportunity to exert influence, and seek a remoulding, a re-shaping, and a revitalisation of the Palestinian Authority to better equip Palestinian politics as a core stakeholder for a challenging future, where the much sought-after two-state solution remains a distant reality.

Finally, the international community must also play its role to push for the sustainability of this deal. The future of West Asian prosperity, newer geo-economic architectures such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, a potential expansion of the Abraham Accords, and even the radicalism of a Saudi Arabia-Israel normalisation, ultimately hinges on this momentum. At the end of the day, the management of regional geopolitical fissures by regional powers will determine all outcomes.


This commentary originally appeared in The Hindu.

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Author

Kabir Taneja

Kabir Taneja

Kabir Taneja is a Deputy Director and Fellow, Middle East, with the Strategic Studies programme. His research focuses on India’s relations with the Middle East ...

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