Analysis

Pakistan: The ‘de-escalation’ dilemma

Sohini Bose The 15 February terror-attack’ that took the lives of 49 CRPF (Central Reserve Police Force) personnel not only shook the border town of Lethpora, where it took place, but also sent tremors deep into the shaky foundation of India-Pakistan ties, widening the already existing cracks. Indeed, the ‘Pulwama attack’ as it is known, involving Pakistan-based anti-India terror-group Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), has led to a series of events that have now strained the relation between the two countries as never before in the recent past. Even as India withdrew the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status to Pakistan and imposed a 200-percent hike in customs duty on goods originating in that country, many Indians took to their social media pages asking, “How’s the Jaish?” in a satirical take on the popular dialogue “How’s the Josh?” from the recent Hindi movie Uri. A few days later, on 18 February, another nine persons, including three JeM militants, were killed in Pulwama in a gun-fight.  The Government and also Prime Minister Narendra Modi left no one in doubt about Pakistan’s complicity in the Pulwama attack. By now the nation was reeling with cries for revenge. While a minor section of the population maintained that it was still possible to resolve differences with Pakistan through dialogue, the majority of the masses would be satisfied with nothing less than war. Taking the middle ground, the Government tasked the Indian Air Force (IAF) to carry out an air-strike on the Jaish camps in Balakot, Pakistan, on 26 February, 11 days after the Pulwama terror-attack. A 1000-kg bomb was dropped on the expansive terrorist training facility, killing several militants and their commanders. As Indians celebrated, the very next day the Pakistani Air Force carried out air-strikes across the Line of Control (LOC) from the Pakistan airspace. One Indian fighter was struck, and Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman of Indian Air Force, was captured by Pakistani ground troops and handed over to their army. No lives were lost in the Pakistan air-attack. Also, in what looked like a tactical move, Pakistan returned Varthaman to India on 1 March, in the full glare of the global media, following Prime Minister Imran Khan’s instructions to ‘de-escalate’ the situation. However, Pakistan has since resorted to heavy shelling with mortars and firing with small arms along the LoC in Mendhar, Balakote and Krishna Ghati sectors in Jammu and Kashmir. The last thing that is needed is a commitment to peace as paltry as the reconciliation process going on in Afghanistan. PM Khan in his ‘commitment to peace’ has also offered peace dialogue with counterpart Modi and cautioned against letting the situation aggravate further. In such a case, Khan said, Pakistan will be ‘forced to retaliate’.

Unanswered questions

What looks like a smart diplomatic move on the part Pakistan, however, deserves closer attention to ratify if it is really all that it seems. Several questions remain unanswered. Primarily, how has such a large terrorist training facility such as the one in Balakot escaped the notice of the Pakistani surveillance for so long when its location could be traced by the Indian agencies within 10 days of the attack and taken out? Moreover, why does Imran Khan term a “surgical-strike” on a terrorist camp as an act of “external aggression” by India? Surely, the ‘war on terror’ is a priority of both nations? It is also necessary to know what exactly would be considered as ‘another act of external aggression’ by India that would compel Pakistan to ‘retaliate’. This muscle-flexing attitude although accompanied by an offer of peace must not be accepted at face value. Hopefully, any speculation over Imran Khan’s sympathies with insurgent groups, which had earlier earned him the nick-name of ‘Taliban Khan’ within Pakistan, will be overshadowed by his post-Pulwama ‘commitment to peace’. With parliamentary elections due in India through April-May, the ruling BJP seeking to make it a major campaign-point has not gone down well with the political Opposition in particular. In a public rally in Rajasthan post-air-strikes, Modi stated that “the country is now in safe hands”. A section of the strategic community and media commentators also question the security measures, pre-Pulwama, where an SUW laden with massive quantities of explosives could ram into a CRPF convoy without road-blocks -- that too long after the way a suicide-bomber had escaped multiple checks and targeted the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly complex. They ask, “Are surgical air-strikes then really the answer to India’s safety concerns?”

The middle ground

The international community is now calling for de-escalation. It may also be in India’s interest now to ‘de-escalate’ but only on the military front. India must use the other means such as economic sanctions and water-sharing, to guide its peace dialogues with Pakistan. Negotiations alone can no longer be depended upon to solve the problem. Diplomacy must therefore be backed by force, the force of sanctions of non-military kind. This is because India’s continued armed actions may be interpreted as a justification for more terrorist attacks from the Pakistani soil under the garb of ‘retaliation’. Also with Chinese sympathies backing Pakistan, stepping up the military might is certainly not an option for India at present. Above all it must be remembered that war costs lives and must only be used as a last resort. It is not something to be instigated by arm chair politicians nor hyped about by an irresponsible media. As India gears to “Look East” more than ever before, matters are steadily becoming graver on its western fronts. At best, therefore for India as a country which seeks to expand its influence beyond its immediate neighbourhood, this may be seen as an opportunity to showcase its diplomatic finesse in a peaceful yet firm handling of the situation. The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata

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Bhutan: Expanding the ambit of soft-power

Mihir Bhonsale Source: Max Pixel Soft-power is non-coercive or co-optive power that rests on the ability to shape the preference of others. Also referred to as ‘attractive power’, the most common sources of soft-power are culture, economy and foreign policy of a country. Soft-power has redefined the discourse on international relations since 1990 when the term was first used by American political scientist, Joseph N. Nye. Bhutan as a small nation geographically squeezed between two among world’s biggest military powers, namely, India and China, serves as an ideal example for beneficial use of soft-power. Having little coercive power that requires military-might, Bhutan takes much pride in its soft-power, manifested in the culture of Buddhism that travelled through India and which uniquely shapes the principles of Gross National Happiness (GNH) that is also Bhutan’s contribution to the world. As a nascent democracy and as an aspiring developing economy, Bhutan’s soft-power is all set to diversify in dimensions beyond its culture and GNH, despite the two remaining to be as the mainstay in soft power projections of the tiny Himalayan nation for the time to come. In times when the country is busy in ascertaining its transition to a democracy and as a developing nation

Leveraging culture

The fourth Druk Gyalpo, or Kind, Jigme Singye Wangchuck as early as the seventies, had envisioned Gross National Happiness (GNH) as a concept to guide to development of the country. GNH Index that subsequently developed aims at preservation of the culture and environment of the country and ensure an overall well-being of the citizens. It uniqueness lies in highlighting the non-economic aspects of development. The concept of GNH that has been explained by four pillars viz. Good governance, sustainable economic development, cultural preservation and environmental conservation have been captured under the 17 UN Sustainable Development Goals to be attained by 2030. United Nations has also begun bringing out the World Happiness Report, developed by the UN Sustainable Solutions Network besides designating March 20 as the International Day of Happiness. The country’s soft-power was advanced by thousands of tourists who visit the country to experience the cultural and natural bounty of the country. The country with a population of 600,000 received over 274,097 foreign tourists in 2018 and substantively contributing to the GDP of the country. Tourism sector was only second to energy in terms of share of contribution to GDP of the country.

Democracy & development

The advent of the 21^st century marked a shift from the Fourth Gyalpo to the incumbent ffth Druk Gyalpo, Jigme Khesar Namgyal Wangchuck. General elections were held in 2008 and the first government was elected by adult franchise. The third general elections held in 2018, presented an opportunity to green-horn political party- the Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa to form the government, breaking away the jitters of transition to democracy and hence firmly putting the country on the map of emerging democracies in the region. Bhutan’s governance and transparency has been commended that is reflected by its rank in World Bank’s Ease of Doing Business. Bhutan was ranked 73^rd among 190 countries in 2018 of was considered the best place to do business in South Asia and the Himalayan nation. It only slipped to the second spot in South Asia, by being ranked 81^st in 2019 after India was ranked 77^th. Bhutan’s progression into developing economies would be complete by the end of 2023 and this would be another shot in the arm for country’s soft- power. Bhutan met the graduation criteria set by UN the first time at the triennial review in 2015, and again in 2018, making it eligible to be recommended for graduation into a developing economy. The assessment is based on three categories -- gross national income (GNI) per capita, human assent index (HAI) and economic vulnerability index (EVI). Bhutan, satisfactorily met the requirements under the first two categories, viz, GNI per capita and HAI, only to have faltered in EVI.

Satellite-launch

Bhutan in 2018 also launched her first satellite named Bhutan-1 from Cape Canaveral in Florida, US. The satellite will help collecting weather data and GPS technology. The Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan, made the world’s most far-reaching climate promise at the 2015 Paris climate summit by pledging to keep 60 percent of its forest cover, ‘in perpetuity’. Preserving cultural heritage, environment conservation and development centred on non-economic parameters of happiness have helped Bhutan and has helped develop its’ soft power. However, there is need for expanding and diversifying her soft power. For example, very few efforts by the state actors in building soft power have been evidenced so far and the time is opportune for Bhutanese non-state actors, especially commercial enterprises to come forward to help contribute in building her soft-power. The writer is a Junior Fellow at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata

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Country Reports

Afghanistan

New appointments

After a recent voting session of the administrative delegation, Hawa Alam Nuristani has been appointed as the new Chief of the Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan. Along with her, Zahra Bayan Shwnwari has been appointed as the Chief of the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission, Malawi Din Mohammad has been elected as the Deputy Chief of the Complaints Commission and Mohammad Qasim Elias has been also appointed as the Secretariat Chief of the Independent Electoral Complaints Commission.

Woman PR to UN

Amb Adela Raz, the newly-appointed Permanent Representative of Afghanistan to the UN, recently presented her credentials to the Secretary-General Antonio Guterres. In their discussions the latter highlighted his attention to the developments of the Afghan peace process and emphasised that despite the challenges that Afghanistan is facing he appreciates the country’s committed role within the UN agenda. Amb Raz in turn reaffirmed the country’s committed support.

Bangladesh

‘No’ to more refugees

Foreign Secretary Shahidul Haque has said that Bangladesh has to stop accepting refugees from Myanmar. He observed that the government of Myanmar is being "obstructionist" about taking back more than one million Rohingya Muslims who have fled to Bangladesh to escape violence. ShahidulHaque made these observations at the UN Security Council this week. Around 700,000 Rohingya have fled to Bangladesh since August 2017 after Rohingya militants attacked Myanmar security forces in Rakhine and triggered a massive military retaliation. Rohingyas are from Myanmar’s Rakhine state bordering Bangladesh.

Hijack crisis

The country experienced a hijack crisis after a Dubai bound flight from Dhaka made an emergency landing the port city of Chittagong after a man attempted to hijack the plane.  The crisis ended after the security forces killed the man who attempted the hijack. Following the incident, the government has ordered increasing security at the country’s airports.

Bhutan

Job scheme on hold

The government has decided to not entertain the ‘Earn and Learn’ programme until the on-going issues are solved. This applies not only to the programme in Japan but also to other countries like Malaysia. Lyonchhen, Dr Lotay Tshering said that the existing arrangements are between private agents and as the students finish their language course will the government try to find jobs for them. Earlier, Bhutanese youth sent to Japan under the Earn and Learn scheme complained of exploitation and corruption in the programme.

Tourism policy

In a bid to boost tourism and to bring clarity on the existing tourism policy that calls for ‘high value, low impact’, Prime Minister, Dr. Lotay Tshering has asked the Tourism Council of Bhutan to come up with a sound and coherent tourism policy to replace the existing one. There has been a change of guard at the TCB after the Foreign Minister Tandi Dorji was appointed as the chairman of TCB.

Feasibility study

The government would soon begin the feasibility study for constructing the Maokhola bridge that would prove to be a boon for residents of four gewogs of Gelephu who have had to wait for more than a decade for construction of the bridge. The Druk Nyamrup Tshogpa (DNT) that was elected to power in polls last year had promised construction of the bridge in their election manifesto.

India

Rafale files ‘stolen’ or photocopied?

The central government has told the Supreme Court that the documents related to the Rafale deal have been stolen from the Ministry of Defence, and later modified it to say that the documents published by The Hindu and also used in court cases were ‘photo-copied’. While Attorney General K K Venugopal told a three-judge Bench that an investigation was being carried out, Senior Counsel Prashant Bhushan, who had challenged the selection process for the French fighter, pointed out that there has been no FIR lodged regarding the ‘theft’. The AG also told the court that government was considering action against The Hindu newspaper, and N Ram, chairman and writer, and a few others under the Official Secrets Act (OSA).

Ayodhya for mediation

The Supreme Court has sent the Ayodhya dispute to be mediated by a three-member panel, comprising former Supreme Court Justice F M Ibrahim Kalifullah, spiritual leader Sri Sri Ravi Shankar and veteran advocate Sriram Panchu. This mediation, while having no legal basis, has been instituted by the five-judge bench headed by chief Justice Ranjan Gogoi as a means for the court to arrive at a decision which benefits all parties involved. The court has given the mediators a total of eight weeks to come to a satisfactory conclusion, while at the same time urging them to come to a decision at the earliest. This mediation will be held in a completely confidential-setting, with no developments coming out until the final report is submitted to the Supreme Court.

Blast in Jammu, 1 killed

In the third attack using grenades since May of 2018, an unidentified terrorist threw an explosive into a crowded bus station in Jammu. This attack left 1 dead and 28 injured, with three of them being in critical condition. The area around the blast has been sealed off by the police and a manhunt has been launched to nab the terrorist. The police have arrested a teenager at the Nagrota checkpoint in suspicion of carrying out this attack, stating he was indoctrinated by the Hizbul Mujahideen to conduct this attack.

Maldives

JP, PPM strike ‘deal’

In what reads like a ‘deal without a written deal’, the Jumhooree Party partner in the four-party ruling coalition headed by President Ibrahim Solih’s MDP has publicly declared support for jailed predecessor Abdulla Yameen’s PPM-PNC nominees in 32 of the 87 constituencies in the parliamentary polls slated for 6 April. In turn, PPM-PNC would back the nominees of Speaker Gasim Ibrahim-led JP for 27 seats. They would have friendly contests in 14 seats, as neither has fielded candidates for all 87 seats. In return, the JP will support opposition candidates in 32 constituencies where it has not fielded a candidate, he added. Of the four JP nominees in Government, Vice-President Faisal Naseem and Gasim’s wife Aishath Nahula (Transport Minister), party president Ali Waheed (Tourism Minister) and JP deputy leader Dr Hussain Rasheed Hassan (Environment Minister) have declared allegiance to President Solih.

Myanmar

Referendum likely

State Counsellor Daw Aung San Suu Kyi has stated in a meeting that people play the most important role in amending the 2008 Constitution. The fact that MPs elected by the people have been trying to amend the constitution in the Pyidaungsu Hluttaw (Assembly of the Union) means that people participate in the process is crucial. Thus, to amend some sections of the Constitution, a referendum may be held and, at that time, the role of citizens will become pivotal.

China corridor in nine sectors

Myanmar is prioritising nine sectors covering infrastructure projects under the China-Myanmar Economic Corridor although more specific details as to which of the projects have been chosen remain under wraps. These sectors, part of the Myanmar Sustainable Development Plan, include electricity, road, bridge, telecommunication, basic construction, agriculture, transportation, research and technology. It has been learnt that a number of agreements “is likely” to be inked in April.

Nepal

Madhes accord

The government of Nepal has finally come to a peaceful agreement with the C K Raut-led alliance for Independent Madhes (AIM). The dispute had been gaining ground for the past few years which has now concluded with the 11-point agreement. The agreement was signed by Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa, for the government.

Infrastructure Bank

Primarily aiming at generating finances for the infrastructure projects of the country, the Nepal Infrastructure Bank has begun functioning in full swing. It has the largest paid-up capital of Rs. 20 billion. It will also have branches in every province. Time seems to be ripe for the country to come out of its economically moderate performance.

Pakistan

Resuming diplomatic ties

In another show of de-escalation, the Indian High Commissioner to Pakistan Ajay Bisaria, who had been called back by the Indian government after the Pulwama attack, will shortly return to Islamabad. The Pakistani High Commissioner to India Sohail Mohammad will also resume his duties in New Delhi on the same day. This is suggestive of a coordinated move between the two governments and indicates a hope of reviving better relations between the two countries through mutual diplomatic initiatives.

Peace, if not provoked

Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan has once again reiterated that Pakistan desires peace but its armed forces and its citizens are fully prepared to protect the country’s sovereignty and independence. While addressing a public meeting, he maintained that Pakistan will not be ‘subdued’ by any country and the armed forces would fight till the very end. Addressing the Indian Prime Minister Modi, he stated that if he indulged in Pakistani bloodshed to win the upcoming elections Pakistan will retaliate.

Sri Lanka

‘Mannar skeletons’ dated

A private US laboratory, approached on behalf of a Sri Lankan court, has dated the skeletal remains dug out from what looks like a mass-grave in northern Mannar area, as between 15^th and 18^th centuries. This has removed apprehensions that the bones, including those of children, dug out from one of the scenes of ethnic violence and war in northern Sri Lanka in the past three-plus decades, thus clearing the armed forces of culpability and/or complicity. The test reports have come at a time when the UNHRC is seized of the ‘war crimes probe resolutions’ which is due for review at present – and which is likely to be extended by another two years for the Sri Lankan Government to work upon.

Bibliography

Afghanistan

Opinion Pieces

Mujib Mashal, “U.S. Peace Talks With Taliban Trip Over a Big Question: What Is Terrorism?”, The New York Times, 7 March 2019 Farshid Ghyasi, “Flaws in Afghan government’s ‘Real Time’ contract attract criticisms”, The Khaama Press News Agency, 4 March 2019

Editorials

Afghanistan Times, “Heavy rains, floods made miserable lives”, 8 March 2019 Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “Afghan Women Do not Want to Backtrack”, 6 March 2019

Bangladesh

Opinion Pieces

Noah Smith, “Bangladesh versus India in the Development Race”, Bloomberg, 25 February 2019 Abdullah Shibli, “Why redefining the 'poverty line' is necessary”, The Daily Star, 26 February 2019 Dwitiya Jawher Neethi, “What is the true cost of labour?”,Dhaka Tribune, 26 February 2019

Bhutan

Editorials

The Bhutanese, “Tourism and Hotels”, 2 March 2019 Kuensel, “Reforming tourism”, 2 March 2019

India

Opinion Pieces

Ruchir Sharma, “No Country For Strongmen”, Foreign Affairs, March/April 2019. Suhasini Haider, “Parley: Abhinanadan’s Release Was A Saving Grace For Both Sides”, The Hindu, 08 March 2019. Divij Joshi, “India’s Quest for Data Sovereignty Needs to Go Beyond Grandstanding Gestures”, The Wire, 08 March 2019. K C Singh, “Hype AfterBalakot: ‘War politics’ Can Backfire”, Asian Age, 08 March 2019.

Maldives

Opinion Pieces

Shoka Noda, UN Resident Coordinator, “50-50/Think Equal”, Maldives Independent, 8 March 2019 Rae Munnavar, “Listen up queens, it is time to gather your tribe”, The Edition, 7 March 2019 N Sathiya Moorthy, “Maldives: Understanding politico-religious conservatism”, www.orfonline.org, 7 March 2019

Myanmar

Opinion Pieces

Wouter Jurgens, “An Open Letter to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on Women's Day”, The Irrawaddy, 8 March 2019 Lawi Weng, “Myanmar Govt, Military Use U.N. Opium Report to Slur Enemies, Shield Allies”, The Irrawaddy, 7 March 2019 Bo Kyi, “Gov’t Losing Its Way on National Reconciliation”, The Irrawaddy, 7 March 2019 Kyaw Phyo Tha, “Public Needs Reassuring Over BRI-Related New Yangon City Project”, The Irrawaddy, 6 March 2019 Aung Zaw, “For U Shwe Mann, Enemies Lurk Everywhere”, The Irrawaddy, 5 March 2019 Nan Lwin, “Chinese Firm Involved in New Yangon City Has Long List of Controversies Abroad”, The Irrawaddy, 4 March 2019

Nepal

Opinion Pieces

Mark Lancaster TD MP, “Announcement for Gurkhas”, Republica, 7 March 2019 Chandan Sapkota, “Pitching it right”, The Kathmandu Post, 7 March 2019 Kanchan Jha, “Evaluating Province 2”, Republica, 6 March 2019

Editorials

The Kathmandu Post, “Playing hooky”, 28 February 2019 The Kathmandu Post, “The fear factor”, 7 March 2019 The Himalayan Times, “Overcome ambiguities”, 28 February 2019

Pakistan

Opinion Pieces

A.G. Noorani, “Dissent in crisis”, Dawn, 9 March 2019 Farrukh Khan Pitafi, “Pakistan’s Wakanda moment”, The Express Tribune, 9 March 2019

Editorials

Dawn, “A new FBR: miles to go...”, 9 March 2019 The Express Tribune, “Kashmir in world focus”, 8 March 2019

Sri Lanka

Opinion Pieces

Rajeewa Jayaweeera, “Brigadier’s conviction and GoSL ineptitude”, The Island, 10 March 2019 M S M Ayub, “President’s devolution committee: Just another committee?”, Daily Mirror Online, 8 March 2019 Kusal Perera, “Leave Budget aside: Get back to the basics”, Daily Mirror Online, 8 March 2019 Malinda Seneviratne, “Karannagoda, ‘Rule of Law’ and season of stillness in Geneva”, Daily Mirror Online, 7 March 2019 Kelum Bandara, “Budget prepared with presidential elections in mind”, Daily Mirror Online, 7 March 2019 Jehan Perera, “The type of leadership the country needs”, The Island, 5 March 2019 N Sathiya Moorthy, “Now, Mangala’s Power to the fore!”, Colombo Gazette, 4 March 2019

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Contributors

Afghanistan & Pakistan: Sohini Bose Bangladesh: Joyeeta Bhattacharjee Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale India: Ameya Kelkar Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee Nepal: Sohini Nayak

• International Affairs
• Neighbourhood
• Bhutan
• GNH
• India-Pakistan
• Pulwama

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