Analysis
Pakistan: New game in South Asian geopolitics
Mayuri Banerjee
South Asia is one of the most geopolitically dynamic regions of the world, dominated by complex power realities and alignments between its countries. The multiple sub-geopolitical spaces within have become hotbeds of superpower competition. Observers suggest that after Africa, world powers are now engaged in a scramble for the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. With China’s declaration of the ambitious BRI project, it is natural that the world gaze is sharply fixed on the political developments in the region.
In the post-Cold War period, with the disintegration of the Soviet Union, the US came to enjoy significant strategic influence for a brief period of time and was subsequently challenged by a rising India and an economically and militarily powerful China. The regional power complex has traditionally been shaped by politico-military alliances between India, the US, China and Pakistan. The geopolitical rivalry between India and Pakistan has enabled China and the US to play a greater role in the region.
However, the scenario is rapidly changing with the emerging nexus between Russia and Pakistan. Pakistan is drawing in Russia largely to counter the American strategic influence and balance its own ties with United States. After being rudely shrugged off by the US on the terrorism agenda, Pakistan has found a new friend in Russia.
Pak-Russia nexus
Pakistan-Russia bilateral ties began to develop primarily since 2015 when Moscow struck a surprising defence co-operation agreement with Pakistan. Over the years the two countries have gradually deepened their strategic collaboration. In addition to supply of arms to Pakistan, the two countries also held joint military exercises -- Dhruzba in 2016 and Aman in 2017.
The 2018 meeting between Pakistan Foreign Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif and Russian Defence Minister Sergey Lavrov is considered to be a major boost to bilateral ties. Both countries then agreed to extend their bilateral co-operation to sectors of trade, energy, technology, education and most importantly in Afghanistan peace process.
This emerging nexus between Russia and Pakistan holds threefold implication for South Asia as a region and its other players. South Asian security architecture will be one of the first sectors to witness a dynamic change. The competition in the Indian defence market re-directed Russia towards Pakistan. Some observers have argued has also fanned Indian insecurities.
Aside, fears of a politically strong Pakistan, Indian policy-makers are also apprehensive about a militarily strong Pakistan. For India, at stake is the nation’s influence over Afghanistan and the security of Jammu and Kashmir State as both will be heavily impacted by Pakistan’s rise in the region.
With Russia’s support Pakistan is likely to have a stronger voice in the Afghanistan peace process, which will endanger any constructive role on India’s part. Further, a militarily powerful Pakistan will have a better influence on the Talibans and can pose security threat to both Indian assets in Afghanistan and the India-Pakistan border.
It is hard to tell whether these speculation hold water. However, deepening threat perception is the least desirable for a region already mired by mutual suspicion and military hostilities.
Shared motive
The second implication is countering India-US ties. Russia and Pakistan do not share borders but are now united by shared motive of reducing the US influence in the region. While Russia’s primary intention is to create a strategic space for itself and play a bigger role in the Indo-Pacific region, it also partially hopes to counter the growing India-US ties.
The newly-formed informal group between Russia-Pakistan and China, if it sustains, will be an added challenge to India-US alliance. And in the face of the receding the US engagement in the region, the future of India-US ties also appears uncertain.
Multilateral governance
The third implication is the changed dynamics of multilateral governance. The Pakistan-China-Russia trio has vowed to increase co-operation between their countries on matters of bilateral interest and contemporary global issues. Therefore, shaping of the South Asian governance institutions will be a major area of interest to these powers.
The regional bloc SAARC might gain a major boost under a politically and militarily rejuvenated Pakistan. Currently, hampered due to India’s refusal to participate in the SAARC Summit, smaller neighbours might decide to go forward with political and military support from Pakistan and China. Also, the governance structures that China intends to initiate with the BRI project will give rise to new economic or security institutions, revamping the governance pattern in the region.
The fact remains that Pakistan has discarded its monotonous foreign policy in favour of fostering deeper ties with countries like Russia and Iran. The expansive multilateralism currently followed by Pakistan brings both opportunities and challenges to the region. And how other players chose to respond to these developments will ultimately decide whether the region will be able to maintain its strategic vibrancy or fall victim to superpower politics.
The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata
Afghanistan: Caring for the ‘children of war’
Sohini Bose
Riddled by intense poverty, internal conflict and corruption for years, the war- torn country of Afghanistan offers little scope of a healthy childhood to its children. Due to frequent war-induced mass displacement, intensifying aggression between the government and the Taliban, leading to a steadily worsening security situation, more than five million children are in need of humanitarian aid and over three million of them are not enrolled in schools.
As gender-discrimination continues to plague the country, 60 percent of the children who do not attend school are girls. Child marriage, lack of female teachers, poor school facilities and the insecurity of going to school in conflict-prone areas has only aggravated the problem. The provinces of Kandahar, Helmand, Wardak, Paktika, Zabul and Uruzgan are the worst affected in this regard.
Resumption of basics
In the post-Taliban era, there was a resumption of basic provisions for education and inclusion of girls in the system. However, the current rise of mayhem in the country through incidents such as civilian casualties, suicide- bombings and increasing number of refugees is reflective of the dwindling law and order situation.
Since the ouster of the Taliban regime by the US forces in 2001, for the first time now, there has been a drop in the rate of children attending school. A recent report by the UN Children’s Emergency Fund (UNICEF), entitled ‘Global Initiative on Out-of-School Children’, showed that a traditional negative mindset inherent in the country and lack of finances have further led the children to be deprived of formal education. Though drop-out rates are relatively low the challenge lies in getting the children to start school in the first place.
Begging as profession
In Afghanistan, education is seen as secondary to earning money. Hence the child labour is rampant, or the children to ‘professional begging’ to lend their families financial support and in the process are left at the mercy of social evils. They frequently suffer from malnutrition and inadequate medical care, and abuse at the hands of their employers. Violence is very often an accepted form of punishment.
Hence often they turn to crimes, and the insurgent groups thriving in the country inculcate them into their fold. Children being easy to mould are welcomed by terrorist organizations, who train them in combat and
jihadi ideology. Often, these training sessions involve severe forms of violence and maltreatment. Hence, every child who is out of school is a potential war child.
The Afghan Ministry of Labour, Social Affairs, the Martyrs and Disabled reported that almost two million children work on the country’s streets. Of them, over one million are into hard labour. These children are forced to brave violent sexual predators. The government’s Children Protection Action Network (CPAN) gets calls from people reporting instances of abuse but when the police reach the scene the children deny the occurrence of such harassments from fear of inviting even more abuse in future.
Though there exists no statistical evidence of how many children are abused, social activists opine that it is rampant. Reports of incidents such as suicide attacks and rapes are common across the country and wherein the perpetrator of the attack is below sixteen years of age. They get sent to juvenile detention centres by the court but after their release they are not kept track off and therefore many incidences of reoffending occur. Rarely the Ministry of Education enrols them into the government schools.
Another type of violence affecting the children in the country is their accidental but relentless killing and maiming in the ensuing conflict. This includes unintentional killings or injuries by the national and international security forces in their efforts to counter the terrorist attacks on schools and hospitals aimed to strike fear in the hearts of children and their parents.
Cure from within
So far efforts have been made to curb the violence raging in Afghanistan through governmental and diplomatic endeavours. However, any concrete success is yet to be achieved. It is then perhaps time to remedy the ills in Afghan society from within and herein education plays a fundamental role. It is an instrument to rid the society of violence, bring unity and prosperity into the country and modify the orthodox outlook which hinders the country in advancing in the path to progress.
A continuing government undertaking complemented by the civil society’s resolve to restore the system of education is necessary. Through combined efforts the people must be made to realize the importance of literacy and initiatives should be undertaken to improve health standards among children, put an end to child labour and child marriage.
The law of Elimination of Violence Against Women makes the perpetrators of abuses against women and children liable to imprisonment and cash fines, but the law is yet to be fully enforces. Its effectiveness is curtailed and in an effort to remedy the situation the government is trying to create a system which will enhance coordination between the government and other such organizations which protect the rights of children. According to the Ministry of Finance, more than 60 organisations, national and international, work for children in Afghanistan along with other unregistered groups.
At the local-level, community-based education and accelerated learning programmes may be organized within community buildings so that the children can study in a secure environment. In an attempt to do so, some citizens in Afghanistan have now opened their homes for the children to learn crafts and study. Teachers and school supplies are procured for the same through foreign donations.
Apart from the government, the members of the society, such as religious leaders can also play a role in reducing violence against children and promoting the cause of their education by eulogising those tenets of Islam which encourage education for all. The security of the children against violence and their proper development through education is an important consideration for any nation. Hence, the Afghan government must strive to better protect the rights of the children.
The writer is a Research Assistant at Observer Research Foundation, Kolkata
Country Reports
Afghanistan
Support for ceasefire
Gen Abdul Rashid Dostum, Vice-President of Afghanistan, has welcomed the announcement of the ceasefire (to be held during the three days of Eid) between the Taliban and the government. Despite calling it an ‘unprecedented move’ as violence continues, Dostum has declared full support to any initiative that might halt the ensuing conflict. However, concerns persist about the attacks which have happened in spite of the ceasefire and Dostum urged the parties to refrain from further aggression.
Forgery foiled
As efforts are underway to ensure transparent district and parliamentary elections, around fifty-eight people have been arrested on charges of forgery in the voter registration process of the same. The charges include using fake national cards and the sale of national identity cards. The office of the Attorney General reports that investigations are underway regarding twenty-four cases of alleged forgery in the voter registration process and an official of the independent election commission has been arrested in that regard.
Bangladesh
No ‘visitors’ for Khaleda?
The Opposition BNP has alleged that the authorities did not allow party leaders with advance clearance to meet jailed leader Begum Khaleda Zia and greet her on the Islamic holy day of Eid. The police, however, claimed that those who had been given permission were allowed to meet Khaleda, but they had to blockade the crowds that had gathered outside the prison to see the leader, jailed in a corruption case. In her Eid day message, Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina claimed that
the nation’s democracy was now well-protected and it had earned the capability to face any disaster. “We’ve been able to ensure fundamental rights of the people like food, clothes, housing and education,” she said.
UN chief coming
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres and World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim are likely to undertake a two-day official visit to Rohingya refugee camps in the country on 1 July. They will also hold talks with Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and Finance Minister A M A Muhith. The World Bank may provide Bangladesh with a grant worth around $200 million to help tackle the ongoing Rohingya crisis, sources said.
Bhutan
Chamber threatens quitting SAARC?
The Bhutan Chamber of Commerce and Industry (BCCI) has written to the SAARC Chamber of Commerce and Industry (SAARC CCI) saying that BCCI might consider withdrawing from SAARC CCI if Bhutan’s BCCI is not given its rightful turn to be the President for 2020-21. The letter dated 5 June was sent after the Himalayan nation felt that it was denied its turn to become the President of SAARC-CCI instead the CCI agreeing to Pakistan’s candidature.
Self-sufficiency set
The country aimed to achieve 60 percent rice self-sufficiency by increasing productivity of the rice-based cropping systems in the next three years through a joint project involving Bangladesh and Nepal on sustainable intensification of rice-based cropping systems by the SAARC Development Fund (SDF) grant through its social window. Presently, the country is only 47 percent self-sufficient in rice.
‘Mountain Echoes’
The ninth edition of the ‘Mountain Echoes’ literary festival will be held from August 22 to 25 in Thimphu. The festival will bring speakers, actors and writers, among others, to share ideas and discuss art, music, literature, and exchange cultures. The year 2018 marks the 50th anniversary of the establishment of formal diplomatic relations between Bhutan and India, the festival will also include segments focused on relations.
India
‘Fallacious and incorrect’
India has promptly dubbed as ‘fallacious and incorrect’ the report of the UN Human Rights Commission (UNHRC) alleging human rights violation in Jammu and Kashmir. In the first of the kind pertaining to Jammu and Kashmir, and also India, the report has also referred to ‘Azad Kashmir’ by name and China-occupied areas that India has consistently maintained are ‘occupied’ Kashmir. UN Human Rights Commissioner, Prince Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein, also called for an independent and international enquiry into the violent incidents taking place in the northern border-State.
Maldives
India condemns criminal court judgment on Gayoom
In a further escalation of bilateral tensions from recent months/years, larger neighbour India has condemned the Maldivian criminal court in capital Male handing down 19-month prison term on former President Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, on charges of conspiracy to overthrow the ‘elected government’ of incumbent and half-brother, Abdulla Yameen. The criminal court also sentenced Supreme Court Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed and Justice Ali Hameed to similar terms in the same case. “It is… with deep dismay that we learned...sentenced to long prison terms without fair trial,” India’s Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) said adding, “This casts doubt on the commitment of the Government of the Maldives to uphold the rule of law and will also call into question the credibility of the entire process of Presidential elections in September this year.” Pertaining to a related development relating to Maldives reportedly denying/delaying work-permit for Indians, the Opposition Congress Party president Rahul Gandhi blamed the Government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and tweeted: “Maldives, once one of our closest allies & beneficiary of massive aid, is cancelling Indian work visas & putting up “Not Hiring Indians” signs. This happens when foreign policy becomes about photo ops & "no agenda meetings" instead of strategic intent.”
Myanmar
Reviving Myitsone project?
Myanmar President U Win Myint on 14 June started a visit to Thailand, where he will attend the 8th Ayeyawady-Chao Phyra Mekong Economic Cooperation Strategy (ACMECS) summit. If Myanmar wants to make itself an attractive destination for investment, especially in the field of hydroelectric infrastructure, the country must pay more attention to maintaining policy continuity and consistency. The Myitsone dam is a large hydroelectric power development project at the confluence of the Mali and N'mai rivers, the source of the Ayeyawady river. Its long suspension is likely to drive down investor-confidence amid concerns over the uncertainty of Myanmar's economic policy.
Farm sector blooms
Myanmar’s agriculture exports have been on the rise, with revenues from selling locally produced crops such as fruits and vegetables to other countries nearly tripling between 2010 and 2016, said U Hla Kyaw, Deputy Minister of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Irrigation. In 2016, total revenue from agriculture exports hit $140 million compared to $55 million in 2010, U Hla Kyaw said at the Myanmar, Korea and Vietnam - Three Nations Post-Harvest Technology Exchange Event in Nay Pyi Taw on 13 June. In 2017-18, the agriculture sector expanded by 3.5pc, backed by better weather conditions and productivity.
Nepal
PM to leave for China
Prime Minister K P Sharma Oli’s six-day China visit, scheduled on 19 June, has reaffirmed better prospects of the already positive Sino-Nepal relations. As said by the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Pradeep Kumar Gyawali, the two countries are all set to reach new heights in connectivity and cooperation. From the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to the signing of the Transit Transport Agreement, as was signed during Oli’s last China visit, every opportunity would be under discussion. However, there would be no agreement on Nepal-China free trade Area.
NGOs protest
The government’s recent decision to inquire into the property details of non-governmental organizations (NGO, their office-bearers and employees has raged protest throughout. As demonstrated, this step would largely dissuade and discourage the work of the civil society formulations. There has been a threat of nationwide protest if the government’s decision is not withdrawn, as learnt from the meeting of the protestors with Home Minister Ram Bahadur Thapa.
Presenting provincial budgets
The provincial governments would be presenting their budget for fiscal year 2018-19 in their respective provincial assemblies. According to the Intergovernmental Fiscal Management Act, the provincial governments have to present their budget 20 days before the fiscal year calendar. In this regard, there is dependence of these provincial governments with regard to fiscal transfer from the federal government and also the revenue shared from the divisible fund and their own revenue sources to finance the budget.
Pakistan
Learning from summit
Welcoming the US and North Korea summit in Singapore, PML-N President Shehbaz Sharif said that it is high time that South Asia holds similar peace dialogues. Shehbaz stated that if North Korea and US could return from the brink of nuclear conflict then India and Pakistan should also do the same by beginning a dialogue on Kashmir and solving the long-festering issue according to UN resolutions. He urged the international community to focus on the peace process in Afghanistan.
Un-official bloc
Pakistan, Russia and China formed an unofficial bloc on the sidelines of the Shanghai Co-operation Organisation vowing to work together in areas of trade, energy, security, culture, education and people-to-people contact. The statement issued by Pakistan Foreign Office said that leaders discussed matters of mutual interest including bilateral, contemporary and global issues. One highly placed foreign official stated that both Russia and China supported Pakistan’s viewpoint on Afghanistan peace process and in the coming years the alliance will work closely in promoting peace in the region.
Hope on refugees
As the deadline for repatriation of Afghan refugees living in Pakistan approaches, the UNHCR is hopeful that the interim government in Islamabad will extend the stay of the refugees. Ruvendrini Menikdiwela, UNHCR’s head for Pakistan appreciated Pakistan’s role in hosting the largest displace population after the World War, adding that it was not possible for a single country to support such a large population. The Head for Afghan Refugees at the commissionerate stated that the former minister for States and Frontier Regions Abdul Qadir was in contact with Afghan officials and there is some hope that the interim set up might extend the stay of the refugees.
Sri Lanka
US’ ‘no’ to Gota
Despite the US Embassy in Colombo and the office of former President Mahinda Rajapaksa have declined comments, media reports have claimed that outgoing US Ambassador Atul Keshap had told the latter that his Government would not allow former Defence Secretary Gotabhaya Rajapaksa to contest the next presidential elections. Gota holds dual citizenship of Sri Lanka and the US, and Amb Keshap is reported to have claimed that the US would not approve of Gota relinquishing his American citizenship, after the 19
th Amendment to the Sri Lankan Constitution made dual citizenship a disqualification for contesting the presidency. For Gota, PHU leader Udaya Gammanpillai claimed that the US law did not have any provision for the Government to hold back cancellation of citizenship by anyone.
Muslim as Hindus’ Minister
Reflecting possible insensitivity to the religious sentiments of the Hindus, who are all Tamil-speaking, President Maithiripala Sirisena swore in, Khader Mastan, a Tamil-speaking Muslim parliamentarian from his UPFA, as Deputy Minister for Resettlement, Rehabilitation and Hindu Affairs. However, following protests from the TNA and representation by Cabinet Minister D M Swaminathan, Mastan is reported to have surrendered the ‘Hindu Affairs’ portfolio, and the President is likely to nominate a Hindu in his place.
Bibliography
Afghanistan
Opinion Pieces
Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “Cycle of Violence Are Against Peace Voice and Islamic Fatwa” Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 14 June 2018
Sidharth Monga, “The Irresistible Rise of Afghanistan’s Cricket Team”, The New York Times, 13 June 2018
Mohammad Zahir Akbari, “Taliban’s surprise ceasefire sparks hopes”, Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 12 June 2018
Murtaza Haidary, “Role of Women in Social Development Process of Afghanistan”, Daily Outlook Afghanistan, 9 June 2018
Sam Dalrymple, “Couchsurfing With the Taliban”, The New York Times, 8 June 2018
Editorials
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “Root Causes of Conflict in Afghanistan”, 14 June 2018
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “Who Wins and Loses From Eid Ceasefire Deal?”, 13 June 2018
Daily Outlook Afghanistan, “China Hosts SCO Summit to Contribute to Regional Security and Trade”, 11 June 2018
Afghanistan Times, “Ghani-Abdullah face-off”, 11 June 2018
Bangladesh
Opinion Pieces
Nazmul Ahasan, “Prioritising effective social safety net projects”, Daily Star, 13 June 2018
Mohammad Tareque and Asif Hossain, “Taking the long term view of economic growth”, Daily Star, 12 June 2018
Bhutan
Opinion Pieces
Tenzing Lamsang, “Some thoughts on the Upcoming Polls in 2018”, The Bhutanese, 9 June 2018
Editorials
The Bhutanese, “Bhutan should stand its ground on SAARC CCI”, 9 June 2018
Kuensel, “Need to boost agricultural productivity”, 13 June 2018
India
Opinion Pieces
Tara Kartha, “Donald Trump pulls out of G7 joint statement: Decoding US president's tirade and its implications for India”, Firstpost, 11 June 2018
Maldives
Opinion Pieces
Fathimath Shahnauz, “Catching on to new tourism trends in Maldives”, Mihaaru, 16 June 2018
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Maldives: India draws a ‘thin line’ at UN, ahead of presidential polls?, www.orfonline.org, 15 June 2018
Myanmar
Opinion Pieces
Karen Deyoung and David Nakamura, “Trump celebrates, but questions persist”, The Myanmar Times, 14 June 2018
Editorials
The Irrawaddy, “Is Kyaukphyu in Danger of Slipping Out of Our Hands?”, 8 June 2018
Nepal
Opinion Pieces
P. Kharel, “To Beijing for ritual”, Republica, 14 June 2018
Geja Sharma Wagle, “Oli’s foreign policy”, The Kathmandu Post, 15 June 2018
Manjeet Mishra, “Dahal’s designs”, Republica, 14 June 2018
Tri Ratna Manandhar, “Let’s spread our wings”, The Kathmandu Post, 14 June 2018
Editorials
Republica, “Stay prepared”, 11 June 2018
The Kathmandu Post, “Act without bias”, 8 June 2018
The Himalayan Times, “Shameful act”, 15 June 2018
The Kathmandu Post, “Paving Paradise”, 5 June 2018
Pakistan
Opinion Pieces
Hasaan Khawar, “Case for smaller provinces”, The Express Tribune, 12 June 2018
Rasul Bakhsh Rais, “The critical 2018 elections”, The Express Tribune, 13 June 2018
Editorials
Dawn, “Afghan ceasefire”, June 12 2018
Dawn, “Educated militants”, June 13 2018
Sri Lanka
Opinion Pieces
Rajan Philips, “America stops war-games in South Korea, start a new game in Sri Lanka”, The Island, 17 June 2018
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Perpetually yours, or what?”, The Sunday Leader, 17 June 2018
D B S Jeyaraj, “Gotabhaya Rajapaksa’s US citizenship and presidential ambitions”, Daily Mirror Online, 16 June 2018
Lucien Rajakaruananayake, “Keshap vs Gota in US family politics”, The Island, 16 June 2018
M S M Ayub, “Political Ifthars and Rajapaksa hunt for Muslim vote”, Daily Mirror Online, 15 June 2018
N Sathiya Moorthy, “Counting the votes before they are cast”, Ceylon Today, 12 June 2018
Jehan Perera, “Undue focus on negatives and no focus on positives in governance”, The Island, 12 June 2018
N Sathiya Moorthy, “For the minority, not the ‘minorities’?”, The Island, 11 June 2018
Contributors
Afghanistan: Sohini Bose
Bangladesh: Dr Joyeeta Bhattacharjee
Bhutan: Mihir Bhonsale
India: Ketan Mehta
Maldives & Sri Lanka: N Sathiya Moorthy
Myanmar: Sreeparna Banerjee
Nepal: Sohini Nayak
Pakistan: Mayuri Banerjee
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
PREV
