Quad meeting: How square is quadrilateral?

Marco Rubio hosted his counterparts from India, Australia and Japan for the Quad foreign minister's summit in Washington on July 1. This was the second meeting between Quad foreign ministers this year, following their earlier meet at Washington after the Trump regime assumed office in January. For India, the standout was the absence of any mention of Pakistan as a 'link' to the Pahalgam terrorist attack, which was condemned in the joint statement.

That perhaps underscores the turbulence that continues to characterise the US' ties with its fellow Quad members. This summit came at a time when fissures between the US, and its allies Australia and Japan, and its strategic partner India, remain at the peak since resumption of the group in 2017.

Since Trump 2.0, US foreign policy - economic and shifting security priorities - has been undergoing a calibrated shift, prompting a critical reset in US bilateral ties with its Quad partners. Earlier this year, Japan and the US began talks on a promising note, including a reaffirming leader-level summit between Trump and Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba at the White House. However, recent markers of US-Japan bilateral engagements suggest a chasm, leading to cancellation of the '2+2 Dialogue' between the two countries.

Japan and the US began talks on a promising note, including a reaffirming leader-level summit between Trump and Japanese PM Shigeru Ishiba at the White House.

Ishiba's absence from the recent Nato summit in the Hague, Netherlands, further underscored Tokyo's growing disagreements with Washington on the latter's continued push for increase in defence spending by its allies. Similarly, Australia's ties with the US are undergoing fissures following Trump's decision to put AUKUS - a minilateral group intended for acquisition and development of conventionally armed nuclear submarines for the Australian Navy - under review.

The review seeks to assess whether the group remains aligned with Trump's 'America first' agenda of foreign policy. A negative outcome for Australia from this assessment poses the risk of critically impairing Canberra-Washington ties, as well as destabilising the Indo-Pacific maritime security architecture.

India-US ties, too, seem vulnerable, in the aftermath of Trump's claims of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan post-Operation Sindoor. The US' periodic insinuations about existing imbalances in India's trade policies vis-a-vis the US have also cast a shadow of uncertainty over the otherwise speedy pace of progress in bilateral ties between the two countries.

Given such looming uncertainties, closure of a trade deal between Washington and Beijing poses questions over the former's priorities. With that backdrop, the Quad joint statement outlined four key areas that will guide the group's agenda. These include maritime and transnational security, economic prosperity and security, critical and emerging technology, and humanitarian assistance and emergency response.

Quad's stated objective to continue to seek cooperation with Asean, IORA (Indian Ocean Rim Association), Pacific Islands Forum, and other Pacific-led regional groupings, demonstrates some continuity in the group's willingness to reach the last mile in fostering cooperation. A slew of new announcements included the new Critical Minerals Initiative to secure and diversify critical minerals supply chains; and Indo-Pacific Logistics Network, announced at last year's Wilmington summit, that is now poised to be underway to strengthen the group's HADR (humanitarian assistance and disaster relief) efforts. Later this year, Quad also seeks to launch 'Ports of the Future Partnership' in Mumbai.

Given India's experience at the recent SCO Summit, where the absence of Pahalgam's mention from the joint statement resulted in serious dilution of the group's commitment to act on terrorism and foster cooperation on counterterrorism, this was somewhat reassuring. 

The group did share its concerns about China's growing belligerence at the East and South China Sea regions - without naming it. It also shared concerns about North Korea's destabilising launches using ballistic missile technology in violation of several UNSC resolutions. The group also reflected on the ongoing crisis in Myanmar, and its adverse implications on regional security, calling for a speedy resolution.

The group condemned violent extremism, specifically mentioning Pahalgam. Given India's experience at the recent SCO Summit, where the absence of Pahalgam's mention from the joint statement resulted in serious dilution of the group's commitment to act on terrorism and foster cooperation on counterterrorism, this was somewhat reassuring. Even as the other 'P' word - Pakistan - was not mentioned.

All in all, the Quad foreign ministers' summit tried to showcase the group's commitment to establish a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. With conflict and turmoil manifesting in several global frontiers, the Indo-Pacific remains vulnerable to instability caused by manifold challenges. Steadfast cooperation among Quad countries will remain essential in safeguarding regional order. The Quad needs to 'show and tell' that despite differences, the quadrilateral grouping remains a force for 'global good'.

This commentary originally appeared in The Economic Times.

• International Affairs
• India
• East Asia
• USA and Canada
• Oceania
• AUKUS review
• AUKUS review
• China tensions
• counterterrorism
• Critical Minerals
• Indo-Pacific security
• maritime cooperation
• quad summit
• regional stability
• US-India relations

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.

PREV NEXT