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India is striving to play a pioneering role in the emerging new world order. The fastest growing major economy in the world is taking off - and forging new alliances. Germany, however, is in danger of falling behind in the competition for the country's favour.
A s a reaction to the tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump, share prices are plummeting worldwide. India is also to be hit with a 26 per cent tariff surcharge in total. However, Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government is not planning any counter-tariffs like China and the European Union. Instead, India has started talks with the USA about a trade agreement.
The country is thus demonstrating that it is not a silent observer of global power games, but is pursuing its own agenda. Europe, especially Germany, has long underestimated this development - and must now hurry if it wants to expand its relations with the country.
The USA is also likely to be interested in a trade agreement, as it is seen as a possible counterweight to China. However, India is not a comfortable partner: it is keeping its distance from the war in Ukraine, the conflict in the Middle East - and from Western expectations to take a clear stance.
‘India today is a self-confident, civilising player,’ says Amrita Narlikar. The political scientist knows both Germany and India. For ten years, she headed the renowned GIGA research institute (German Institute for Global and Area Studies) in Hamburg, before which she was a fully tenured senior academic at the University of Cambridge. Today she lives and researches in New Delhi again. ‘What we are experiencing is not simply a rise, but emancipation.’
The Political Scientist, Amrita Narlikar | Photo Credit: ORF
Europe, says Narlikar, has long cultivated a distorted image of India - if it took the country seriously at all. "When I arrived in Germany, I was amazed at how little substantive discussion there was about India. Instead, in invited lectures which were meant to focus on multilateralism, I was frequently be asked: Isn't it dangerous to live in India as a woman?" The relationship was characterised by misunderstandings - and a certain arrogance. ‘Germany and India could have been natural partners,’ says Narlikar. ‘But the interest was one-sided.’
This is now beginning to change. Not least because India is taking off economically. With projected growth of 6.6 per cent in the financial year 2024 to 2025, it is the fastest growing major economy in the world - well ahead of the USA (2.4 per cent), China (2.4 to 2.8 per cent) and Germany (-0.2 per cent). The population is young: the average age is 28 and more than 65 per cent are under 35.
India is also ahead in terms of digital infrastructure: with the India Stack, the country has created a public digital infrastructure that sets global standards. ‘Digitalisation, the exclusion of corrupt middlemen, a growing middle class - all of this is boosting India's self-confidence,’ says Narlikar. ‘And suddenly the country is also becoming interesting for Europe.’
But anyone who believes that India can simply be embraced as a ‘democratic China’ is misjudging the situation. ‘India is not prepared to simply fit into an order that it has not helped to shape,’ says Narlikar. Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar put it even more explicitly at a recent conference in New Delhi: "If the West negotiates with the Taliban, that's fine. When others do it, it is problematic. We recognise this double standard - and we call it out."
‘The virtues of the old world order are overrated,’ Jaishankar continued. "When the West intervenes in other countries, it is supposedly in the name of democracy. When others do the same, it is considered malicious. A global order needs fairness - and a basic consistency of standards."
The country is an active member of the Quad (with the USA, Japan and Australia), but also of the BRICS group, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
India is pursuing a foreign policy of ‘strategic autonomy’ - and not just since today. The country is an active member of the Quad (with the USA, Japan and Australia), but also of the BRICS group, which consists of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. In terms of foreign policy, it is sometimes difficult to grasp: While it does not directly condemn the war of aggression in Ukraine, it calls for respect for international law. New Delhi repeatedly criticises Israel without taking a clear position.
India buys Russian oil - and French weapons. ‘India co-operates with the West where it makes sense,’ explains political scientist Narlikar. "But it does not enter into Western-style alliances. This is neither in keeping with the country's history nor its strategic culture."
What Europe often overlooks: India sees itself not only as an economic or strategic power, but also as a civilisational power with its own set of values. ‘Indian liberalism is in many ways more liberal than Western liberalism,’ says Narlikar. ‘It thinks beyond people, towards the environment, animals and other forms of life.’
She refers to the principle of Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam - a Sanskrit phrase that means the world is a family. Prime Minister Modi emphasised the principle during the G20 presidency in 2023. ‘This is not a PR platitude, but part of a cultural heritage that many Indians learn from an early age,’ says the political scientist.
Europe, on the other hand, talks a lot about values, but is often inconsistent. ‘The EU wanted diversification, but investments by German companies in China reached a record high in 2023,’ says Narlikar. If an investment agreement is concluded with China in the middle of the coronavirus pandemic, and that too during the quietest period of the year i.e. the Christmas break, this will send a signal - to India and other democracies in the so-called Global South. ‘Surely they will ask themselves whether Europe is living up to its own values, or whether this is another example of European double standards?’
Despite all the assurances, Europe's India policy remains hesitant. Germany in particular is falling short of expectations. It has recently agreed on more cooperation in the field of green energy. A joint hydrogen initiative was agreed at Indo-German government consultations in New Delhi in 2024.
However, Germany is lagging behind in the area of security policy. While France signed a contract with India for 36 Rafale fighter jets back in 2016, German submarine cooperation is still pending - even though a German consortium is the only bidder for a project worth billions.
After all, the free trade agreement between the EU and India, which has been under negotiation since 2007, is due to be concluded in 2025 - a sign that Europe has realised how much it needs to pick up the pace. ‘The pace has been far too slow,’ criticises Narlikar, however. "Yes, India is complex. But so is Germany. And if you are serious about diversification, you have to invest - politically, economically and intellectually."
There are many points of contact for this: In terms of data and cyber security and environmental protection, India and Europe are actually closer to each other in some areas than Europe and the USA. ‘But we are not utilising the potential,’ says Narlikar.
Germany's handling of Indian skilled labour is also an obstacle. "The hurdles are high, the process is often daunting. And even those who come experience a Germany that preaches diversity but is sometimes still racist in reality." This can also be seen in the fact that although many Indians come to Germany to work, they are rarely or never represented at the seniormost levels (in striking contrast to the UK or the USA).
And what about the criticism that India is developing into an authoritarian Hindu state under Prime Minister Modi? ‘Domestic politics is not my field of research,’ says Narlikar, "but in my view, these debates in the West are often conducted very superficially. India is a functioning democracy, the largest democracy in the world. This is also shown by election results, which are not always in favour of the government."
This democracy does a lot for its own people and also as a global player, says Narlikar. ‘Wouldn't it be nice if India's contributions were recognised for once?’ Instead of alarmism, she calls for differentiated analyses and a level playing field. "Europe loves to lecture. Now would be the time for Europe to listen."
For example, India is calling for a say in the reform of the UN Security Council, equal treatment in global trade rules and more respect for its own development paths. ‘India will never say: it can only be us - like the USA or China,’ says Narlikar. "It wants a multipolar world. And for that, it needs partners who take that seriously."
Europe, and Germany in particular, have the opportunity to be one of these partners. But they must act quickly. Because India is not waiting. Instead, the country is building its own alliances: with France, the Gulf states, South East Asia and Africa. It has alternatives - economically, diplomatically and strategically.
This commentary originally appeared in Die Welt.
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