Reports that the Sajith Premadasa faction in the failed UNP Opposition has sought to register a new group/party, by whatever name it finally calls itself, should make the ruling Rajapaksa clan happier than already. Despite the massive victory of their candidate, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in the Presidential Polls of last November, that too against none other than Sajith himself, they seem still tentative about not making it equally big and convincing in the Parliamentary Polls, whenever held later this year.
Presidential Poll figures indicate that they can have a comfortable journey as far as winning a simple majority in the 225-seat Parliament is concerned. Or, so it seems. But they have legislative measures in mind which will require two-thirds majority. With most of the strong minority allies from the past completely distanced, and the TNA too expected not to play game any time soon, their target sounded too ambitious. But not necessarily so if Premadasa has his way - with our without a new Party and alliance.
That way, the way the UNP factions are now fighting over party leadership, it is becoming increasingly clear that they have already lost the Parliamentary Polls even before joining it. Hence, they are also looking beyond the polls, when having the party leadership and continuing with the existing by-laws would help the incumbent dictate terms as incumbent Ranil Wickremesinghe has been doing for elections and decades now. It is possibly the only reason why challenger Sajith too wants the Party post, going beyond his nomination as the UNP-led combine's Prime Ministerial candidate with freedom to nominate (loyalist) Party candidates for the Parliamentary Polls and run the campaign as he wished.
If he won the Parliamentary Polls, then Sajith can take credit and capture the UNP leadership with ease, if not poise. If not, he stands the chance of being condemned alongside Wickremesinghe for losing more elections than winning, as Party Chief. Sajith has already lost the Presidential Polls to Gotabaya Rajapaksa, so, very comprehensively that he came a distant second in their shared native district of southern-most Hambantota.
Sajith 'won' only urban Colombo District, where the UNP has been traditionally strong. He cannot be blamed for the 'Easter Blasts' rattling the urban middle class, cutting across traditional Party affiliations, that they too wanted a tough Gotabaya Rajapaksa at the helm, beyond a point. That should explain Gotabaya's better vote-share than brother Mahinda Rajapaksa in Colombo District, in the failed 2015 Presidential Polls.
The UNP faction-feud is not good for the Nation, and the Rajapaksas used to be the first ones to acknowledge the same when elder brother Mahinda Rajapaksa was President (2005-15). They did so more through actions, rather than words. When once-militant, left-leaning JVP had 39 MPs, the Rajapaksas took care to ensure that they would not woo more than 20 UNP Parliamentarians, if only to ensure that the latter did not lose the Leader of the Opposition status to former.
The Rajapaksa SLFP experience under JRJ in the late seventies should keep constantly reminding them how a political vacuum in the Opposition could have been a contributing factor for the return of JVP militancy, though only a decade later in the late eighties. There were other contributing factors like the LTTE war, but then it was also a repeat of the Nation's earlier experience of the early seventies. Then again, the fledgling JVP struck when it found the gap between the traditional left and left-leaning SLFP's promises and delivery, first in the Government and later, back in the Opposition.
The UNP leaders may not want to acknowledge it, but the Rajapaksas later-day breaking up of the JVP ally, helped the UNP rival as much as their own undivided ruling SLFP of the times. It was also possibly thus that the previous Rajapaksa regime went through certain political motions on corruption cases against ex-UNP ministers, but at the same time did not seek to fast track the cases against them.
In turn, the Wickremesinghe-led UNP Government that left office with Gotabaya's election did fast track the criminal cases against the Rajapaksas and their acolytes, but the result was still the same. No verdict in most cases, even from the Trial Court. Yet, Wickremesinghe did ensure that even young Namal Rajapaksa should not be a threat to his presidential ambitions five years hence, in 2019, by upping the minimum age limit from 30 to 35 years.
Senior Minister and deputy leader of the Party, Sajith, went along. But what man proposed, the voter disposed. So, the two, Ranil and Sajith, are back to their favourite past time from before the 2015 Presidential Polls. This time, however, with Sajith having dispossessed the inherent office of the Leader of the Opposition's position attaching to whoever is the Party 'leader' when in the Opposition, the tussle is wider and deeper than in the past, indicating a vertical split, from top to bottom.
In such a show, the real top may stay with Ranil until they are sure that they did not stand a chance either. The bottom is supposed to belong to the Sajith camp, but they are more impatient for results than anytime in the past. But there are other hidden issues that Sajith is already facing and would have to tackle if he had to take the top party post - and keep it, too.
The way the UNP is going about it, even after a massive defeat in the Presidential Polls, it looks as if they are all playing the Rajapaksa game for them, in this long run-up to the Parliamentary Polls, to be followed (or, preceded?) by the nine PC polls. Even by the best of calculations based on the proportional representation (PR) scheme for the Parliamentary Polls, the UNP would have required its JHU and Tamil-speaking Muslim and Upcountry Tamil allies for the polls, and the TNA, post-poll. Going by their own present mood and methods, the UNP seems wanting to ensure that such calculations would not make any sense now - before or after the polls.
It is not as if the UNP alone is in the tatters in the larger Opposition camp. It is the largest Party and its problems are worse than some of the rest. Because the UNP is also the Nation's GOP and is based out of capital Colombo, has its (only) political base among the majority Sinhala-Buddhists, its problems keep getting highlighted more than those of the rest. But their problems are also fewer and less serious.
Topping the list, of course, is the TNA. The Party is not a UNP ally in the formal sense of the term, but the latter can be remain assured that the other will not ditch them in favour of the Rajapaksas any time soon. The TNA is also expecting back most of the 'Tamil seats' in Parliament, a reference to the 'SLT' community, as against the Muslims and the Upcountry Tamils. But whether the TNA will have cause to support the UNP or even the occasion to so, post-poll, depends on the latter's poll performance, preceded by pre-poll behaviour.
The TNA itself is faced with problems of the Tamils' own, where estranged former Northern Province Chief Minister, retired Supreme Court Judge C.V. Wigneswaran, has been at seeking to chip off the Party's strong poll-base, but with little or no success. In an ethnically-polarised Nation, the TNA is the single largest voter-following in proportion to their community's population. The Muslim and Upcountry communities were relatively better off. Even by owning up criticism that their leaders were only after ministerial positions, their divided polity, by aligning with the Government of the day, also made sure that their people got a piece of the national cake, though not as may be equipped - or, required.
Today, ahead of the Parliamentary Polls, the Muslim and most Upcountry Parties find themselves in the wilderness on this very score. The Muslim community may have a grouse against the Rajapaksas dating back to their earlier regime and also BBS violence of those days. They also faced the post-Easter Blasts hounding of the community, not only by the State apparatus, but even more by individuals and groups, including at times by those from the brotherly SLT.
Less said about the Upcountry Tamil polity the better. Their divisions are simply ego-centric and at times, caste-based. If the community's plight is worse off than when the late Savumiamoorthy Thondaman founded the CWC, it owes only to the break-up of the Party. Unless those that collectively caused it owned up to their mistakes and rectify them, the community has a bleaker future than already.
The Muslim polity and voters continued to vote for the UNP and candidate Premadasa in the Presidential Polls only hope that there would be light at the end of the tunnel for the community. It looks as if there was no light in the first place and that there is only the dark and endless tunnel. Even if they come together, for which there is now a fairer chance than before the Presidential Polls, at least some of the major players may be able to win big in the northern Vanni and parts of the East.
The problem with the Muslim Parties, especially the SLMC, is whether to align with a divided UNP for some seats in capital Colombo or elsewhere, or just try and woo the TNA alone. The TNA is already talking to some of the Upcountry Tamil Parties for entering the electoral scene outside of the North and the East, especially Colombo with its substantial SLT population.
The question is, if the TNA would want to join hands with the SLMC or a unified Muslim political entity, especially if there is no hope of an early election to the Eastern PC (and the other eight). And if the SLT voters in the North would want to share electoral space and parliamentary seats with the Upcountry Tamil polity - and for more than political and electoral reasons.
This commentary originally appeared in Ceylon Today.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.
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