The Quad foreign ministers met shortly after Donald Trump took office at the White House. This ministerial meeting was also the first engagement of the United States (US)’ new secretary of State, Marco Rubio. While speculations were rife about the future of Quad after Trump won the polls earlier last year, the prompt meeting of Quad foreign ministers suggests the grouping is likely to remain a key priority for Trump.
While much of Quad’s systematic functioning began during Joe Biden’s tenure, Trump also shares credit for the revival of the grouping. Quad began as a group of four countries cooperating to assist humanitarian assistance and disaster relief efforts in the aftermath of the 2004 tsunami in the Indian Ocean, but withered soon, after hesitations of drawing negative attention from China took to the fore. Later, the compulsions posed by new strategic realities in the Indo-Pacific, primarily driven by China’s growing aggression in the region brought the four countries closer. Importantly, Trump's first term had breathed new life into Quad, marking the resumption of dialogue among the four democracies as advocates of a rules-based order at sea, in the Indo-Pacific. Even within the US, Trump undertook reforms rechristening the erstwhile Pacific Command (PACOM) of the US Armed Forces to Indo-Pacific Command (INDOPACOM), acknowledging the need for a unified security approach.
Trump's first term had breathed new life into Quad, marking the resumption of dialogue among the four democracies as advocates of a rules-based order at sea, in the Indo-Pacific.
While the overview of much of Trump’s China policy is dominated by his hardline approach to trade issues, in the realm of security too, there has been considerable focus. The security and stability in the Indo-Pacific is of vital interest to the US’s geopolitical and economic imperatives under Trump. China’s increasingly aggressive behaviour in the Indo-Pacific has naturally alarmed the US. More recently, the South China Sea region has emerged as a terrain of contest. China’s continued belligerence through grey-zone activities in the Taiwan Strait also remains a key concern for US interests. In this light, the US has sought to expand and deepen its partnerships with like-minded countries in the region to ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Groupings such as Quad are thus vital for Trump’s interest. This is also in tandem with his advocacy of security partnerships, rather than the US being a sole security provider.
The US’s Indo-Pacific partnerships are wide-ranging and multifaceted. With Quad, the US has expanded broad-based cooperation with Australia, Japan and India. With AUKUS, the US and the United Kingdom are continuing to work with Australia to provide the latter with nuclear submarines to deter a war-like scenario in the Indo-Pacific. More recently, the US has sought to enhance security cooperation in the South and East China Sea region against Chinese aggression through Squad, with Australia, Japan, and the Philippines. Among these, Quad’s scope and agenda is the most diverse and broad-based. While Quad's operationalisation began with a tacit security orientation of protecting freedom of navigation in the Indo-Pacific and ensuring a rules-based order in the region, it has increasingly adopted a slew of comprehensive objectives aimed at delivery of global good including fostering cooperation in the domain of human security, technological cooperation and facilitating people-to-people ties.
With AUKUS, the US and the United Kingdom are continuing to work with Australia to provide the latter with nuclear submarines to deter a war-like scenario in the Indo-Pacific.
While Quad’s agenda was expanded significantly under Biden, the extent of Trump’s commitment to non-security issues in Quad remains to be seen. For Trump, prioritising questions of Indo-Pacific security is likely to be his preferred driver. This was also reflected in the joint statement released after the Quad foreign ministers’ meeting. The emphasis was on upholding and defending sovereignty and territorial integrity, apart from the rule of law and democratic values. Seemingly alluding to China, Quad reiterated its commitment to regional maritime, economic, and technological security along with promoting reliable and resilient supply chains.
The question that arises is whether this could complicate the continued synergy within the grouping given that Quad has so far remained mindful of not explicitly pitting the group against anyone. Earlier last year, at the Wilmington summit, Prime Minister Narendra Modi reiterated that Quad is not against anyone, but rather a force for good. The nuance of such a position also acknowledges the diverse strategic and security compulsions and interests of the member States vis-à-vis China. It will remain crucial for Quad partners to navigate Trump’s expectations and desired objectives for the grouping. Notwithstanding such complications, the fact that Rubio’s first official engagement involved convening the Quad ministerial meeting underscores Trump’s clear message — Quad will remain a key priority for the US and that it is indeed here to stay.
This commentary originally appeared in Hindustan Times.
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