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Malancha Chakrabarty and Lukhanyo Neer, Eds., After the Great Fall: Revival and Restoration in Africa, November 2024, Observer Research Foundation.
ISBN Paperback: 978-81-19656-40-0
ISBN Digital: 978-81-19656-26-4
In the early 2000s, Africa experienced an economic turnaround when macroeconomic stability and growth rates improved, and large and fast-growing economies like Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, and South Africa became known as ‘lion economies’. At that time, there was much optimism about the prospects for the continent. That upward momentum, however, has been derailed by various factors. The first economic shock that put the brakes on high growth rates was the commodity price crash of 2015 (see Figure 1). Not too long after, in 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic broke out.
The pandemic had unprecedented economic consequences in Africa: real growth rates plunged to negative figures; poverty and unemployment rose; and countries fell into deep debt. The Ukraine-Russia war followed close on the heels of the pandemic and exacerbated the continent’s food insecurity and undernutrition. At present, 57.9 percent of Africa’s population (or about 868 million people) are experiencing moderate or severe food insecurity.[1] Indeed, much of the development gains of the last two decades have been reversed and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) today seem unattainable. African countries are also suffering a disproportionate burden of the consequences of climate change despite making the least contribution to global carbon emissions. Africa’s security challenges are also plenty—more than 35 armed conflicts are ongoing,[2] killing thousands and displacing over 40 million[3] people so far—and these conflicts are compounding the challenges to development goals.
Figure 1: Real GDP Growth Rate, Sub-Saharan Africa (2010-2022)
Source: Estimates based on World Bank Data[4]
Note: Authors’ own estimates based on World Bank data on GDP at constant 2015 prices.
While the COVID-19 pandemic caused massive economic losses, developed nations were able to recover on the back of huge stimulus packages.[5] African countries, however, were unable to support their populations with similar fiscal measures. Despite their huge development challenges, African countries received only 3 percent of the US$650-billion worth of additional Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) approved in 2021.[6] To put economic growth and the SDGs back on track, African countries now require massive financial resources—an endeavour that will not be possible without deep reforms in the international financial architecture which continues to marginalise Africa and constrain its development.
The inclusion of the African Union (AU) as a permanent member of the G20 holds promise for Africa, as it now has an equal opportunity, at least in theory, to shape global decisions. Previously, South Africa was the only African member in the G20, bearing the responsibility of representing both its national interests and those of the continent. However, there are concerns that the AU may not have the capacity required to leverage its G20 membership.
This publication trains the spotlight on some of the most crucial challenges confronting Africa and attempts to chart a roadmap for a developed, secure, and sustainable future for the continent. In the first essay, Shoba Suri highlights Africa’s shortfall in the targets of ‘zero hunger’ by 2030 (SDG2) and the Malabo Declaration of eradicating hunger by 2025. The article makes a case for supporting smallholder farmers, particularly women farmers, who have little access to finance, technology, and markets.
Amshika Amar, in the subsequent piece, tackles Africa’s persistent challenge of high debt, as steep servicing costs are impacting the countries’ spending for their urgent development needs. The author outlines policy recommendations including working closely with multilateral development banks on governance reforms and the creation of a financing facility for Africa’s most vulnerable countries.
In the third essay, Bonolo Makgale discusses the ramifications of conflicts in West Africa: widespread displacement, democratic backsliding, and weakened governance structures. The author argues that conflict in the region is a colonial legacy whose solution lies in security-based solutions, governance reforms, nurturing social cohesion, and economic development.
Iva Detelinova then focuses on the climate crisis, underlining the threats of sea-level rise, water stress, and extreme weather events. She argues for the need to build a business case for greater adaptation investment in Africa.
In their piece, Jackline Kagume and Kwame Owino note that the global financial order is no longer fit for the changing dynamics of today’s world, and is particularly incapable of meeting Africa’s economic aspirations. They recommend a decentralised approach to global financial governance, greater representation for Africa, and the establishment of financial hubs in Africa.
In the sixth article, Shravani Prakash and Tanu M Goyal focus on the African Continental Free Trade Agreement (AfCFTA) as a potential pathway to boost intra-Africa trade, expand African economies, promote industrialisation, and reduce poverty and unemployment. The authors recommend action on four paths to AfCFTA’s success: trade facilitation and development of multimodal transport infrastructure; investments to move up the value chain; promoting access to finance; and enhanced access to regional markets.
Mbali Ndandani, in the seventh essay, discusses the role of artificial intelligence and digital technologies in meeting Africa’s development goals. They argue that, for tech to make a real contribution in human development in Africa, the process of technology development should enable African agency.
In the penultimate piece, Andrew Partridge and Alison Gillwald examine the issue of digital financial inclusion in Africa, where most people have faced barriers to traditional financial services. To realise the full gains of digital financial services, more Africans, particularly from marginalised groups, need access. The authors recommend the upgrade of mobile money services and policy interventions and resource allocation to end digital and financial exclusion.
The last essay, by Masanori Kobayashi, explores the possibilities of developing sustainable blue economies in Southern Africa. The author finds that although blue economy is an important sector for the region, the modalities are mixed, and there is a strong need for more research and human resources development.
Alec Erwin provides the Epilogue, where he underlines the need for Africa to chart its own development pathways.
These essays seek to demonstrate that despite progress in various domains such as governance, infrastructure, and regional cooperation, Africa’s potential remains largely unrealised. Key challenges—among them, political instability, underdeveloped economies, and social inequalities—have slowed progress. Though severely hurt by the multiple crises, the African development story is not defeated. With one the world’s youngest populations and tremendous resources, Africa has the potential to turn adversity into opportunity.
Yet, without a clear, coordinated strategy, Africa risks losing out on the opportunities presented by its demographic, natural, and geopolitical advantages. Through greater collective action, the continent can march forward in the goals identified in the Agenda 2063. The hope is that the ‘African Century’—envisioned as a period of peace, prosperity, and cultural revival for Africa—may yet still happen.
Read the volume here.
Endnotes
[1] Food and Agriculture Organization, “Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations”.
[2] “Today’s Armed Conflicts,” Geneva Academy.
[3] “African Conflicts Displace Over 40 Million People,” Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
[4] “GDP (constant 2015 US$),” World Bank.
[5] Chantal Line Carpentier et al., “Unprecedented COVID-19 stimulus packages are not being leveraged to accelerate SDG investment,” UNCTAD, December 11, 2020.
[6] Brahima Sangafowa Coulibaly, “Rebooting global cooperation is imperative to successfully navigate the multitude of shocks facing the global economy,” Brookings, September 16, 2022,
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Dr Malancha Chakrabarty is Senior Fellow and Deputy Director (Research) at the Observer Research Foundation where she coordinates the research centre Centre for New Economic ...
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