As was being speculated, the British electorate has spoken decisively in favour of the Labour Party and has booted out the Conservatives after a long 14 year span. Britian will have its fourth prime minister in under two years in Sir Keir Starmer. But if there was one theme of this election, it was a wholesale rejection of the Tories and a strong determination to bring in the opponents – be it the Labour, the Liberal Democrats or even the newly minted Reform UK of Nigel Farage. Labour’s vote share may not have expanded in line with its “Tsunami” in Westminster but for the moment it is the Tory drubbing that will continue to resonate. The Conservatives who had long prided on being “the natural party of governance” were unable to get a grip on the economy and on immigration. The internal factionalism of a scandal riven party was just too much for the British voter to stomach.
Labour’s vote share may not have expanded in line with its “Tsunami” in Westminster but for the moment it is the Tory drubbing that will continue to resonate.
Despite this dramatic shift in the British domestic political landscape, the foreign policy priorities are unlikely to change. The broad trend of India-UK ties has been unsatisfactory, especially when compared to India’s relations with Britain’s neighbour France that have been a consistent bright spot in India’s foreign policy. Under regular strain from either the Pakistan question or some other legacy issue, the India-UK partnership has remained bogged down by irritants. Under the leadership of Keir Starmer, the Labour Party abandoned its traditional left-wing posture in favour of a more centrist ideology and greater pragmatism. The outcome of the British election, amidst Labour’s vows to improve ties with India, is a positive development for the India-UK Comprehensive Strategic Partnership signed in 2022.
The first task for the newly elected Indian and British governments is to get the India-UK Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiations, long hijacked by years of tumultuous British politics, back on track. Despite the conclusion of 14 out of 26 chapters, contentious demands on both sides still need addressing. These include a reduction of Indian tariffs on British whiskies and cars, while India seeks lower tariffs on labour-intensive goods such as textiles. These currently face high competition from British concessions offered to Bangladeshi products based on the latter’s Least Developed Country (LDC) status. The good news is that India’s desire for a more liberalised British visa regime for its professionals will face lesser pushback under a Labour government, whose politics is not attached to anti-immigration rhetoric.
The investment story is already robust. At least 850 Indian companies have operations in Britain, while the latter is amongst India’s top global investors. In recent years, British investments in India have expanded to include critical sectors such as semiconductors and investments to support India’s transition to green energy.
The good news is that India’s desire for a more liberalised British visa regime for its professionals will face lesser pushback under a Labour government, whose politics is not attached to anti-immigration rhetoric.
The FTA aims to increase bilateral trade with India, while providing impetus to India’s ambitions to increase exports on its path to becoming a $5 trillion economy, and helping Britain’s battered economy, which had a trade deficit of £7.3 billion with India in 2023, to get back on its feet.
The negotiations, which commenced in 2022 under a Conservative-led government, have greater chance of now yielding a trade deal through a stable Labour majority in the British Parliament, free from the messiness of coalition politics. In India, despite a return to coalition governance, the BJP’s hold on foreign and trade policy is poised to continue given its partners are regional parties with a greater interest in regional domestic concerns.
The criticality of the Indo-Pacific region for the UK’s commercial and security interests yielded an “Indo-Pacific tilt” articulated in the country’s Integrated Review Refresh strategy. The approach aims for greater cooperation with likeminded nations such as India to ensure a stable regional order through maritime and other modes of cooperation. Bridging previous gaps on China with its reference to Beijing as an “epoch defining” challenge, India and Britain’s respective memberships of the QUAD and AUKUS have complementary goals of countering Beijing’s influence. Yet Labour’s mixed signals with regards to its Indo-Pacific approach has resulted in skepticism of Britain’s future commitment to the region. This is coupled with pre-existing questions regarding Britain’s resources and ability to project influence in both the Indo-Pacific and Euro-Atlantic theatres, amidst commitments to NATO. However, with its QUAD partners more focused on the Pacific, Britain has the potential to fill in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) vacuum, where India’s strategic interests lie, and where London has at least seven permanent bases. Recognising constraints on both sides and developing realistic ambition is key.
Both countries have also signed an Electric Propulsion Capability Partnership aimed at equipping Indian naval vessels with electric propulsion.
Prospects for collaboration in defence are bright, particularly as India seeks to diversify its defence suppliers beyond Russia. A number of big-ticket defence deals including the co-production of VSHORAD missiles and fighter jet engines are in the works, accelerated by the 2+2 mechanism and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh’s London visit early this year. Both countries have also signed an Electric Propulsion Capability Partnership aimed at equipping Indian naval vessels with electric propulsion. Besides traditional security, cyber security is another key area of cooperation. On tech, the two sides have an ongoing “Emerging Tech Exchange Programme” aimed at pioneering R&D in sectors such as Artificial Intelligence (AI).
Many of these initiatives are poised to continue under a reinvented Labour Party, with its promise of rectifying mistakes committed under Jeremy Corbyn’s leadership that indulged in rampant criticism of New Delhi’s Kashmir policy. A Starmer-led British government is likely to be more mindful of India’s sensitivities and security compulsions. Yet the composition of the new British Parliament, including the number of minority MPs that may continue to harp on the K-word, may pose challenges.
Differences on the Russia-Ukraine war have not resulted in backlash, with both countries preferring to focus on complementaries rather than divergences. With both countries beginning new government tenures and the Roadmap 2030 strategy guiding bilateral ties, moving on with this collaborative attitude and setting aside historical baggage is the need of the hour.
This commentary originally appeared in Financial Express.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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Shairee Malhotra is Associate Fellow, Europe with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her areas of work include Indian foreign policy with a focus on EU-India relations, ...
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