Democracy is a powerful instrument to underscore the illegitimacy of authoritarian nations. A simple act of voting is often more potent than the barrage of missiles in conveying the power of a people and their voice. At a time when the Chinese Communist Party has been holding people of Taiwan hostage to its military prowess, it is being rebuffed repeatedly by the electoral choices of the Taiwanese. This time too Taiwanese voters have chosen pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP) William Lai as their leader who after his election victory made it clear that he would “maintain the cross-strait status quo” even as he pledged to “safeguard Taiwan from threats from China.”
If Beijing had made this election a choice between “war and peace” and Lai a “troublemaker” for his views on independence, Taiwanese also made their views known by making Lai the winner. Lai who has in the past expressed his support for Taiwanese independence, has been more cautious recently and after winning has made his desire to work with Beijing to bring stability in cross-strait relations apparent. But two terms of President Tsai Ing-wen and the DPP and now the victory of Lai has set Taiwan on a trajectory which is at odds with China’s wishes. Just before elections, the PLA has thundered that it would “smash” any Taiwan independence “plots” and China's Taiwan Affairs Office had warned voters in Taiwan to make the “right choice.” The voters have spoken and they have once again defied the Chinese Communist Party in a celebration of their democratic values which makes them both powerful and unique.
Voters in Taiwan responded through the ballot box underscoring that despite authoritarian regimes targeting democracy in recent years, the yearning of freedom still remains as the fountainhead of some of the remarkable changes being ushered in the world.
Though there were growing economic concerns about housing cost, unemployment and slower-than-expected wage growth in the country, Taiwanese voters made it clear that they were not willing to give up on their democratic aspirations just yet by backing Lai. This despite Beijing trying its best influence the course of the outcome through its disinformation campaigns, targeting politicians and military and economic coercion. Voters in Taiwan responded through the ballot box underscoring that despite authoritarian regimes targeting democracy in recent years, the yearning of freedom still remains as the fountainhead of some of the remarkable changes being ushered in the world.
For Chinese President Xi Jinping who has described cross-strait reunification “a historical inevitability,” this is another reminder that his actions and policies are rebounding and creating an environment where a pushback against them is becoming the new normal. The Chinese Communist Party has of course dismissed the outcome of Taiwan’s elections, saying its ruling Democratic Progressive Party does not represent mainstream public opinion.
The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will now shape China’s strategic posture not only toward the island but also the entire Indo-Pacific as the US-China relationship also undergoes a shift. After a period of dramatic turbulence, there have been recent moves towards stabilizing ties between Washington and Beijing but the DPP’s reelection for a record third straight term has once again brought the issue of Taiwan to the centrestage of this relationship. A bipartisan delegation of former senior officials from the US are likely to travel to Taiwan soon to shape the contours of future engagement.
The outcome of Taiwan’s elections will now shape China’s strategic posture not only toward the island but also the entire Indo-Pacific as the US-China relationship also undergoes a shift.
At a time when the international order is facing challenges on multiple fronts, there is hardly any incentive on either side to escalate. But Taiwan’s importance to the global economy and its role as the semiconductor hub of the world makes conflict management a serious enterprise. There is no possibility of a dialogue starting between Taiwan and China anytime soon despite Lai offering cooperation to Beijing which remains suspended since 2016. Military and economic coercion of Taiwan is likely to continue and even intensify as the Chinese Communist Party tries to make the island to learn “lessons” and Taiwan keeps up with its attempts to diversify away from China.
India has an opportunity to substantively enhance its engagements with Taiwan on multiple fronts – from people to people to economic, from high end technology to education. India is one of the few nations that can offer Taiwanese businesses the scale that will be needed as they move away from their overdependence on China. India’s web of partnerships in the Indo-Pacific also provide immense scope for addressing Taiwan’s economic vulnerabilities in a wider regional sense. Tsai will be taking over in May when India would also be ushering in new government post elections, marking an important to re-define the contours of bilateral engagement.
After his victory, Lai declared: “We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy.” Indeed voters in Taiwan have sent the world a big message by not only defying Chinese threats and showing their contempt for Beijing’s behavior but also standing resolute in defence of their values. This has made Taiwan one of the most pivotal players in today’s global order.
This commentary originally appeared in Economic Times.
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Professor Harsh V. Pant is Vice President – Studies and Foreign Policy at Observer Research Foundation, New Delhi. He is a Professor of International Relations ...
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