In those earlier halcyon days when Mr. Modi was strutting the world stage head held high, 56-inch chest and all, it may have just slipped his mind that men actually tend to be vulnerable a bit lower down. He was not to be blamed because he was rightfully looking up at the stars and what they beheld for him and had little reason to look down to see if his feet were still planted on terra firma. Of course, over these past four years he should have spared a glance downwards as well, but then that’s hindsight talking. At this juncture, it should come as no surprise that many may see it as poetic justice that just as soccer fever is at its height Mr. Trump has delivered two well-directed kicks to the groin that would have felled better men than even Mr. Modi.
After all, isn’t that exactly what the further postponement of the “Two plus Two” dialogue and Ms. Nikki Haley’s push, nay directions, to support the USA’s unilateral actions against Iran signify? Off course, our acquiescence to the latter would, more than impacting our energy needs, also imply that our strategic vision to use Chabahar Port to outflank Sino-Pak collusion in the Arabian Sea that Gwadar represents will be in tatters. Surprisingly, the US and its allies had much to gain from this initiative, given the alternative route it provides to Afghanistan but then not for nothing has Mr. Trump earned the well-deserved reputation of being a bigger danger to his friends than enemies; ask the European Union, Canada or NATO!
Even if, for a moment, we were to leave aside the headache that the Trump Administration is causing as a case of, what insurance agencies commonly referred to as “Force Majeure”, how does one explain the manner in which our immediate neighbours, Nepal, Maldives, and Srilanka have had no hesitation in cozying up to China with little regard for our legitimate concerns. Reportedly, even Bhutan has refused to bring up the issue of the recent Chinese occupation of most of the Doklam Plateau, following the earlier confrontation, which now effectively allows the Chinese to look into the Siliguri Corridor. Would any of these countries have dared to behave in this manner if our foreign policy had been backed by a robust military that had demonstrated its capabilities and willingness to stand up to Pakistan’s protracted hostility or Chinese aggression? Instead, on the issue of Doklam we have preferred to have our noses rubbed into the mud rather than confront Chinese belligerence publicly.
Understandably, President Theodore Roosevelt’s description of his foreign policy as “speak softly, but carry a big stick” made eminent sense, and more importantly, was credible. Unfortunately, ever since Independence Indian politicians, Mr. Modi included, have tended to adopt soft options of kowtowing to the strong and bullying the weak. They have, with few exceptions, always preferred to believe that hollow posturing supported by good public relations are sufficient to win domestic praise and elections. They work on the premise that you need to fool all the people for only some of the time as the vast majority of our electorate has attention s that even toddlers would be ashamed off and remember nothing beyond yesterday’s headlines. In any case, a “committed journalism” ensures that difficult questions never get asked.
Nothing else can explain the utter neglect of the military over decades and its virtual dismantling over the past few years. After having allowed an obdurate bureaucracy to run roughshod over it to an extent that verges on the treasonous, Mr. Modi now finds himself in the unenviable position of having to deal with the consequences of their collective inaction. So, while the Service Chiefs may go on about their readiness to fight a two and a half front war, they, more than others, are fully aware as to the hollowness of their claims, Exercise Gagan Shakti notwithstanding. Truth be told, they stand accused of constitutional impropriety for knowingly making non- existent claims that pander to this Governments nationalistic constituency.
If anything, neither the Government nor the opposition can plead ignorance over the prevailing state of affairs given the forthright views expressed by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Defence, presently headed by BJP Member of Parliament, the much respected Maj Gen BC Khanduri (Retd). To expect a military that is short of everything but courage is a laughable proposition. That is probably why this Government has had to resort to cheap gimmicks like releasing footage of the cross-border strikes conducted earlier, and imposition of Governors Rule in Jammu and Kashmir in a futile attempt to bolster its reputation for robust action. The fact is that the punitive raids were very limited in scope and that the Army cannot do more than it is already doing in J&K regardless of the political dispensation in power there.
Of course, Mr. Modi, being the hardheaded politician that he is, is fully conversant of all of this. That is probably what has forced him to try and appease the Chinese. The Wuhan Informal Summit, the treatment of Tibetan refugees, the silence on the CPEC and Doklam are visible pointers to this, though whether that will help him in the coming elections is questionable. It is quite likely that President Xi will rub his and our collective noses in the mud in the coming weeks and months.
There is also some talk that the Government intends to finesse its response to issues agitating serving and retired soldiers, such as OROP, NFU and free rations for officers in Peace Stations, in order to wean back some of the support that they have lost. The Government must take corrective steps in this regard at the earliest, if our military is to regain lost ground whether military personnel or their families, subsequently, do go on to support the government or not. One has little to be optimistic about, however, given the almost daily atrocities being committed against our Forces. Scandals that have now come to light, such as the manner in which allegedly corrupt MOD bureaucrats have changed service rules of the supporting cadre to the detriment of the Services must be dealt with expeditiously.
The question that arises is can the Raksha Mantri be trusted to do the correct thing? Given that her own motives for passing orders for opening up of all Cantonment roads are suspect, even as their legality is being questioned and they seem to be in contempt of the judicial rulings. Allegations are flying thick and fast on social media that she is set to personally gain because her own personal residence and a school run by her husband reportedly fall within the Cantonment area. Whatever be the truth behind these allegations, Mr. Modi would do well to get himself a new Defence Minister if he is to retain a modicum of credibility of providing corruption free governance.
This commentary originally appeared in The Times of India.
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