This July, in the run up to Ebrahim Raisi’s swearing in as Iran’s President, Iranian press reported that a détente with Saudi Arabia was afoot and to confirm the progress in relations, Riyadh will send a representative to attend the ceremony. Raisi, a hardliner cleric, had struck a conciliatory tone in his first presser since becoming President and said that there was “no obstacle” in talking to Saudi Arabia. “We are ready to reopen embassies,” he added. Relations between the Islamic powers collapsed in 2016 as Saudis executed a top Shi’ite cleric and in response an Iranian crowd ransacked the Saudi mission in Tehran. However, Saudi Arabia did not send an emissary to the inauguration and quashed the narrative of a quick regional rapprochement that Iranians tried to weave. Riyadh needs Raisi to make serious concessions before it can grant Iran the regional goodwill and legitimacy it seeks. Iran’s economy is crumbling under the weight of American sanctions and its Shi’ite militias are increasingly unpopular, taunted on their turf by locals for doing Iraq’s bidding. Peace with the Saudis would go down well with the domestic audience in Iran and with many in the region who are furious with the Iranian-backed militias for causing trouble.

Riyadh needs Raisi to make serious concessions before it can grant Iran the regional goodwill and legitimacy it seeks.

This April, soon after the Biden administration started indirect talks with Iran to revive the 2015 nuclear deal, a communication channel also opened between Iran and Saudi Arabia in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad. But so far Iraq is the only winner. Tehran and Riyadh remain mistrustful of each other and have not made much headway yet while Baghdad has emerged as a peacemaker. For decades, Iraq has endured wars, sectarian strife, violent terrorism of ISIS and a dilapidating economic crisis. But this year, the troubled Arab nation has been in the limelight for something positive. It has become a bridge between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and late last month, it hosted a regional summit to also offer space for other Arab nations like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) to reconcile with Iran. “Iraq, which for years has been a headline for war and conflicts, is hosting leaders and representatives of the region today to affirm their support for Iraqi sovereignty and prosperity,” Iraq’s President Barham Salih said.

Tehran and Riyadh remain mistrustful of each other and have not made much headway yet while Baghdad has emerged as a peacemaker.

The Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, King Abdullah II of Jordan, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, and French President Emmanuel Macron, all attended the conference. Kuwait, UAE, and Turkey, however, sent their foreign ministers. Saudi and Iranian foreign ministers participated but no breakthrough was reported. Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein alluded that bringing them under the same roof was an achievement in itself, indicating just how bad the relations between the two have been. “The fact that we managed to bring rival countries together on the same table and initiate dialogue between them is not only important to them and us but to the whole region,” Hussein said. Joost Hiltermann, the Program Director for the Middle East and North Africa at the International Crisis Group, wrote about the significance of the regional summit and the importance of the role being played by Iraq—one of the Arab countries deeply contested between Riyadh and Tehran.

The result could be promising for peace and stability in a country whose internal fissures have offered the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others plenty of opportunity to make mischief.”

He said that the summit was a sign that the region took America’s retreat from the Middle East seriously and was preparing for it by giving diplomacy a chance over confrontation, “In this scenario, the two sides have given Iraq the chance to stand up as a facilitator for diplomacy and offer itself as a neutral venue,” wrote Hilterman. “The fact that these talks took place in Iraq is significant. The Iraqi Prime Minister Mustafa al-Kadhimi is not alone in wanting to turn his country from a battleground for outside powers into a bridge between them. He is well-positioned to bring that about. The result could be promising for peace and stability in a country whose internal fissures have offered the U.S., Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and others plenty of opportunity to make mischief.” Analysts hailed Iraq’s part as “pivotal,” and said that it casts Iraq as a neutral player. Even though Saudis and Iranians still have a long way to go, and it was not revealed whether the foreign ministers met one-on-one on the sidelines of the summit, the general consensus is that the meetings are a welcoming development. One day, these talks might bring peace to many countries,  Yemen, Syria, and Lebanon, countries that the Saudis and Iranians see as their area of influence and have been quarrelling over. It is equally possible that the talks will collapse. Foreign Minister Fuad Hassan, however, seemed more hopeful. He said Iraq's efforts will not go on. “The meetings in fact began in Iraq, and in Baghdad, and these meetings are continuing, and will continue,” he said.

• International Affairs
• America
• Bhutan
• The Pacific
• East and Southeast Asia
• East Asia
• Biden Administration
• Ebrahim Raisi
• Iraq
• ISIS
• UAE

The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.