This article is part of the series — What to Expect from International Relations in 2021.
As the world enters 2021, the global balance of power is in a state of flux. Chinese officials believe the world is undergoing “profound changes of a kind unseen in 100 years” — something only accelerated by the “once-in-a-century pandemic.” In China, this rare convergence is seen as an opportunity to remake the balance of power in Beijing’s favour; for the United States, it’s a warning siren signaling declining influence. With both China and the United States jockeying for position, nearly every geopolitical challenge facing Asia will be exacerbated by this new phase of great power competition.
In the current geopolitical context, even the construction of infrastructure in Asian countries will carry heavy perceived significance.
Some of the region’s most pressing flashpoints directly involve China and its territorial and maritime claims. In 2020, new Chinese encroachment into disputed waters in the South China Sea sparked complaints from Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam, including official notices filed at the UN. The United States accused China of “exploiting the distraction or vulnerability of other states to expand its unlawful claims in the South China Sea.” Japan made a similar accusation regarding China’s increased presence near islands claimed by both parties in the East China Sea. Meanwhile, the Sino-Indian border remains a major flashpoint following the deadly clash in the Galwan Valley on 15 June 2020.
China remains invested in negotiations with India to de-escalate along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in Ladakh, just as it is engaged in pan-ASEAN talks on a Code of Conduct in the South China Sea. But in both cases, the growing tensions between China and the United States serve as a complicating factor. An already-divided ASEAN will face intensified pressure as its every pronouncement on the South China Sea is scrutinised for signs of being pro- or anti-China. Meanwhile, India’s border conflict with China is speeding up its commitment to the Quad, which is in turn reshaping the dynamics of the US-China competition.
Even geopolitical issues that don’t directly involve China will be impacted by the US-China rivalry.
Even geopolitical issues that don’t directly involve China will be impacted by the US-China rivalry. The North Korean nuclear issue continues to loom large on the agenda for the incoming Biden administration in the US. However, a solution to the issue is impossible without support from China. While its influence is often overstated, Beijing is more than capable of nudging Kim Jong Un either toward or away from the bargaining table, through both direct diplomatic contact and more subtle forms of economic coercion (including China’s enforcement of existing UN sanctions). And now, amid a rapid decline in US-China relations, Beijing has little incentive to push Pyongyang for meaningful nuclear concessions. After all, the whirlwind Trump-Kim courtship was accompanied by a parallel warming of China-North Korea relations — and the latter has proven more lasting. Meanwhile, South Korea will remain between a rock and a hard place. Seoul hopes China will push for progress in inter-Korea relations, but is increasingly under pressure by the US, its treaty ally, to take steps that would antagonise China — such as banning Huawei from 5G networks.
In the current geopolitical context, even the construction of infrastructure in Asian countries will carry heavy perceived significance. Any choice to sign contracts with Chinese firms will be seen as a win for the Belt and Road Initiative, while the US, Australia, Japan, and India will push for alternatives. Even standard investment decisions — a new factory in Vietnam or India — will carry larger ramifications as calls for supply chain diversification and even decoupling from China continue into 2021. Countries seeking investment and loans can and will seek to play China and the US off of each other, but ultimately any contracts they do sign can be used as signs of where their loyalties lie.
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