The second decade of the 21stcentury has been marked by turbulence, with tectonic shifts in the governance foundations of the world. The changes are perhaps best marked by the breakdown of digital, geographic, and economic divisions across the world – all having implications on one other. As internet access becomes more pervasive across the world, the neat packaging of the digital and real world have collapsed. This breakdown has had further effects on the separation of continents, regions, and sub-regions which are less meaningful in a world where a citizen from Brazil can be virtual neighbours with a citizen from India. The rift within the walls that separate digital and geographical borders has also had repercussions on the traditional divide between the supporters and non-supporters of globalisation. The distinction between the two economic groups has become increasingly conflated, with the biggest defenders of globalisation also believing that the system has largely broken down. The results of these developments help lay out the key challenges that the world will likely face over the next decade.
Both, developed and developing world will need to deal with three main issues as they strive towards calming and stabilising the foundations by 2030. The most important of these is the advent of the 4th Industrial Revolution, and the impact that Artificial Intelligence and Automation will have on the global labor market. The 4th IR and theseemingly subsequent expiration of the manufacturing sector in many countries is certainly of great economic concern. However, the challenges brought about by the 4th IR will beyond simple economic losses. If the current trend of jobless growth continues, the implications on the social stability of nations will be enormous, leading to the second major challenge the world will face over the next decade – the rise of radicalism. There has already been a noticeable rise in radicalisation in the second half of the current decade. A dearth of employment opportunities has manifested itself in the form of a disaffected populace frustrated with the outcomes of globalisation – an issue that has the potential to worsen as the 4th IR progresses. However, these are not the only factors sparking the dissatisfaction with the global economic order of the 20th century. The disenfranchised populations also include those with ideological aversions, as well as people who are of the view that globalisation has led to a detrition of traditions and sense of personal and national identity. The situation has been further enflamed by the financial crisis of 2008-2009, which highlighted the inherent inequality of globalisation. The schism has only grown in the decade since. The increased radicalisation has already been demonstrated through the election of fringe candidates to some of the highest political offices in the world – and has the potential to evolve into something far more dangerous if it remains unaddressed.
The recent fragmentation has not been confined to domestic arenas. It has spilled over into the international stage – which presents the third challenge that will need to be dealt with over the coming decade. The liberal world order that dictated global governance since the end of the Second World War has become obsolete, as the poles of geopolitical and economic power shift to the Indo-Pacific. The concept of ultilateralism itself has come under fire, with nations increasingly adopting isolationist policies. More importantly, the traditional model of multilateralism has been coopted, with nations testing new forms of global governance through regional and minilateral cooperatives. These models have been largely spearheaded by nations that have recently emerged in economic and political power, but find themselves constrained by the outdated Atlantic governance architecture. Instead of attempting in vain to bring down the metaphorical bulwarks that impede reforms in the Bretton Woods system, these new powers have instead created counter mechanisms that will allow them to dictate rules and regulations as they see fit.
Counterintuitively, the new partnerships created by these nations may yet provide the solution to deal with the three major challenges that the world will have to contend with over the coming decade. Managing economic progress, ensuring employment, and reducing radicalisation require a functioning global world order. With the liberal world order of the 20th century having proven itself to be outdated, a new governance architecture is clearly needed. The partnership models used by recently emerged economies provide the ideal architype for this. The regional and minilateral cooperatives formed in recent years, have brought together nations that have political and economic differences but also share a common commitment to an overarching set of ideals and principles. Global governance for the next decade will be built on bringing such regional and minilateral organisations to a consensus to create new a new set of global norms.
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