Indian External Affairs Minister Jaishankar’s visit to the Maldives came as the politico-electoral climate in Maldives began heating up
For the second time in a row, India’s External Affairs Minister (EAM) S Jaishankar skipped the capital Malé during his recent visit to the Maldives, as he landed in the northern Manadhoo, where the two sides signed three MoUs and India handed over two sea-ambulances. Along with President Ibrahim Solih, he inaugurated work on the India-aided Hanimadhoo airport development project, which includes a new runway capable of receiving wide-bodied aircraft and 1.3 million tourists a year. He also held a ‘comprehensive, in-depth, and candid communication’ with counterpart Abdulla Shahid, reflecting on the ‘historic relationship between both countries and expressed commitment to furthering cooperation in priority areas’, as the Maldivian foreign ministry said in a statement.
The three MoUs respectively operationalised an additional MVR 100-million grant for ‘high impact community development projects’, the building of a sports complex in Gadhdhoo island, and facilitated exchanges between the Maldivian National University (MNU) and the Cochin University of Science and Technology (CUTS). Maldives also sought Indian assistance in setting up a drug rehab centre. Incidentally, inter-island air services and air connectivity to Malé and other population centres both have popular benefits and also an electoral advantage for governments and leaders—Yameen was known to have focused on them during his presidency, before Solih began doing it.
India viewed Maldives as a whole and beyond capital Malé with its politico-diplomatic ecosystem and overtones, and still found ways to participate in the nation’s regional and sub-regional development and that of their people.
The last time Jaishankar visited the country in March 2022, he inaugurated other of India-assisted projects in the country, namely, the Police Academy, in southern Addu City, the second ‘population centre’ in the country after Malé, and also held discussions with President Solih and minister Shahid.
Around the same time, the two governments arrived at an in-principle agreement for India to open a consulate in Addu, to help easier access to India for the southern population, skipping Malé and saving costs and time for visa processing, etc. The message was clear: India viewed Maldives as a whole and beyond capital Malé with its politico-diplomatic ecosystem and overtones, and still found ways to participate in the nation’s regional and sub-regional development and that of their people. Jaishankar said as much during his recent visit when he remarked that the assisted projects ‘make path to a better lifestyle for locals’.
The visit came even as the politico-electoral climate in Maldives began heating up, after the Election Commission (EC) announced the schedule for the presidential polls—first round on 9 September, and a second, run-off round, if needed, on 30 September.
The poll announcement has added to the seriousness and the avoidable viciousness attached to the 28 January presidential primaries in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP). It has also invested the Opposition PPM-PNC combine’s presidential bid with greater urgency, first at the legal plane than the electoral plane. This is after a trial court verdict debarred Yameen from contesting the elections unless acquitted by the appellate courts, namely, the high court and the Supreme Court, and in time for nominations.
In the MDP primaries. incumbent Solih and his party chief, Parliament Speaker, and one-time mentor Mohammed Nasheed are involved in the no-holds-barred campaign against each other. In the process, Nasheed especially has been targeting the Solih government as corrupt and ineffective. He has been comparing the Solih government with the predecessor Yameen regime, going as far as to say that barring the ‘India Out’ campaign, Yameen was ‘more capable than Solih’ and was/is also a ‘visionary’.
The poll announcement has added to the seriousness and the avoidable viciousness attached to the 28 January presidential primaries in the ruling Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP).
Nasheed went as far as to say that ‘jailing Yameen is not a cause for celebration’, which also led to popular misunderstanding and publicised speculation of an emerging behind-the-scene understanding between the two camps, as much for primaries as for the final if Nasheed is not a candidate. Adding an additional twist, he took off from where he had left earlier, saying that he would not have contested the primaries if foreign minister Shahid had done so (against President Solih). Promptly, Shahid reiterated his unflinching support for Solih.
In his own defence, President Solih has claimed that his administration has carried out more projects in two years than any other had done in full five years. He blamed whatever delays that occurred in projects-implementation on the COVID-19 pandemic and global lockdowns, and said that they would have done much more and much better under normal circumstances. In a series of campaign rallies across the country, Solih recalled how as President (2008-12), Nasheed had laid off ‘government employees and disturbed the islands’ by handing over newly-identified ferry service to private sector players while allotting them resort-islands
Solih also came down heavily on Nasheed’s ‘taxi policy’ after the latter had told Malé’s cabbies that if elected President, he would have the government takeover all the taxis, to end traffic congestion. He said even in the primaries, ‘Yamen’s policies are coming back’, implying that Nasheed represented those interests.
In between, the social media misinterpreted Nasheed’s observation that he would not back Solih in the presidential polls if the latter won the party primaries, as if he would ask his supporters to either vote for Yameen or boycott the polls. He has since clarified that he would not support either Solih or his PPM rival, if it ever came to that. This too has led to the speculation that Nasheed may contest the presidential polls as an independent candidate. Whatever that be, Nasheed declared that ‘forming coalitions’ before the second round of presidential polls, if it came to that, was ‘unfair’, as Solih, unlike him, has stood by the MDP’s three allies and has promised to carry forward with them.
In the Opposition camp, the PPM-PNC combine has been banking on an early hearing of Yameen’s appeal against the criminal court sentencing him in a corruption-cum-money-laundering case, thus, disqualifying him from contesting the elections without an acquittal in time for him to be able to file his nominations before they close on 3 August. Party leaders who visited the criminal court to try and ensure that it released the trial report fast for Yameen’s defence to prefer his appeal in the high court, said that ‘free and fair elections cannot be held if the Opposition candidate is jailed’. The trial court released the case reports on the 14th day of the verdict, which was also the mandated last day for the purpose.
Party leaders who visited the criminal court to try and ensure that it released the trial report fast for Yameen’s defence to prefer his appeal in the high court, said that ‘free and fair elections cannot be held if the Opposition candidate is jailed’.
This is the second of three cases of near-similar nature against Yameen. In the first case, the Supreme Court overturned his conviction and sentence after the high court had upheld the five-year jail term handed down by the criminal court. The third case is being heard only now, and a verdict of conviction and sentence beyond the mandated maximum of one-year jail term, can complicate things for Yameen, even more. In this particular instance, even a one-year jail term, if pronounced in the coming weeks, can deny him the nomination, unless an acquittal at the appellate stage also accompanies it.
The question is if the two-stage appeals could be completed in both the cases or if the Yameen defence can move the Supreme Court to freeze the hearing until after the presidential polls are completed—as there are no precedents of the nature either in the country or elsewhere. The Yameen camp has been staging frequent protests demanding freedom for him since his imprisonment. However, what he would advise the party and what the party/combine would do, if his appeal verdicts are not out before nomination closes is unclear just now.
Possibly taking off from Nasheed in internationalising his imprisonment under court orders when Yameen was in power, senior leaders of the PPM-PNC combine met the ambassadors of EU member-nations in Colombo and sought their help in seeking justice for Yameen, whom they said was imprisoned illegally on false charges. The delegation included Yameen’s lead counsel Dr Mohamed Jameel Ahmed and son, Zayn Abdulla Yameen and detailed how ‘Yameen’s imprisonment and such other acts of the Solih government threatened democracy’ in the country.
Possibly taking off from Nasheed in internationalising his imprisonment under court orders when Yameen was in power, senior leaders of the PPM-PNC combine met the ambassadors of EU member-nations in Colombo and sought their help in seeking justice for Yameen, whom they said was imprisoned illegally on false charges.
A delegation also met Yameen in prison, and later said that he was in good health and high spirits, implying that he was fit to fight the court cases and the presidential poll. During his previous imprisonment in a similar case where the Supreme Court acquitted him later, Yameen had complained of persisting back-pain, after which he was shifted to ‘home arrest’.
It is a tall order in normal times, but the Yameen defence seems to hope that his being the presidential nominee of the official Opposition may be a legitimate incentive for the courts to fast-track the appeal-hearings. Otherwise, according to the Yameen camp, the Maldivian voter would be denied his choice if the courts were to acquit him, post-poll. Also, such a turn would be unfair to Yameen too as he would have been denied a possible second shot at the presidency. Both are fundamental rights, respectively of the voters and the individual, Yameen. Or, so goes the social media argument.
In comparison, the Yameen camp refers to a near-similar situation where the present-day ruling MDP reportedly pressured the government’s attorneys to delay a criminal trial against former MDP President, Mohammed ‘Anni’ Nasheed lest it should deny a ‘level-playing field’ for him to contest the 2013 presidential polls. Nasheed contested and lost to Yameen by a narrow margin, in a controversial election.
Should Yameen lose the appeal in both the cases, or even one of the two, he would require loyalist candidates for president and vice-president, who would facilitate his freedom one way or the other and also exit their posts for him to contest fresh elections and return to power. In such a scenario, incidentally, Parliament would continue to be in the MDP rival’s control, and Nasheed may continue as the Speaker, until fresh parliamentary polls six months hence, towards the middle of 2024. For, under the Constitution, if the president and vice-president posts are vacant, then the speaker holds office as president for 60 days, pending fresh elections. Again, there is a lot of scope for speculation and possibilities as of now.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
N. Sathiya Moorthy is a policy analyst and commentator based in Chennai.
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