Author : Pulkit Mohan

Expert Speak Raisina Debates
Published on Aug 31, 2022
The RevCon takes place at a time when the international security context is unpredictable and the need for meaningful dialogue and subsequent implementation of plans for the path to disarmament is more relevant than ever
The Future of Nuclear Disarmament: A look at the Tenth NPT Review Conference The tenth review conference of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was held in New York over the last three weeks to discuss the future of the international security environment with the rising risks of nuclear weapons use. The NPT is a landmark international treaty envisaged with the intent to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, and to achieve nuclear disarmament. Central to nuclear non-proliferation, the treaty was entered into force in 1970 with 191 state parties as signatories. Article VIII (Paragraph 3) of the Treaty calls for a review of its operation and implementation every five years. The NPT Review Conferences play an important role in analysing and assessing the implementation and outcomes of the Treaty and outlining the course of action over the next five years. After 25 years of its entry into force, the decision to indefinitely extend the NPT was made at the 1995 Review and Extension Conference. The 2020 RevCon was postponed to August 2022 due to COVID-19 restrictions. The 10th RevCon takes place after the 2015 RevCon which ended without consensus on the adoption of a substantive outcome over the next five years. The 2010 RevCon was the last time the NPT state parties successfully adopted an outcome document that identified conclusions and recommendations for action such as the implementation of the 1995 Resolution on the Middle East.

The NPT is a landmark international treaty envisaged with the intent to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and weapons technology, and to achieve nuclear disarmament.

The 10th RevCon comes seven years after its last iteration at a time when geopolitical tensions and the dangers of nuclear weapons are at their highest since the Cold War. United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres highlighted the challenges of rising inequalities and crises to peace and security across the world as well as the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on geopolitics. Guterres also emphasised that “the risks of proliferation are growing and guardrails to prevent escalation are weakening. And when crises — with nuclear undertones — are festering. From the Middle East and the Korean Peninsula to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and to many other factors around the world.” As a result, some of the key action areas, identified prior to the start of the conference, focused on reaffirming states’ commitment to preventing the use of nuclear weapons, reduction and eventual elimination of nuclear weapons arsenal, reinforcing disarmament agreements and decreasing tensions in Middle East and Asia, as well as addressing the impact on nuclear non-proliferation in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The NPT RevCon is composed of main committees and subsidiary bodies that look at nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation issues, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. The analyses and identified outcomes in these discussions are drafted into reports that contribute to the final document that is produced based on NPT State Parties’ Consensus. As the draft reports of the main committees of the 10th NPT RevCon have been made available, it is useful to highlight expected outcomes of the latest reiteration.

Main Committee I on Nuclear Disarmament and Subsidiary Body I 

The Main Committee I on Nuclear Disarmament  is tasked with reviewing the state parties’ implementation of the treaty. The draft report of the 2022 RevCon Committee I predictably reaffirms the commitment of both Nuclear Weapons States (NWS) and Non-Nuclear Weapons States parties to the NPT and its Articles. Notably, through the draft report, NWS have underlined their fulfilment of commitments as ascribed by Article VI of the NPT which focuses on the need to “accomplish the total elimination of their nuclear arsenals leading to nuclear Disarmament.” The Committee I report has also emphasised the importance of transparency and confidence-building measures amongst state parties as well as reiterating concern over the humanitarian consequences of nuclear weapons.

The NPT RevCon is composed of main committees and subsidiary bodies that look at nuclear disarmament, non-proliferation issues, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy.

The draft report of the Subsidiary Body I also lists positive recommendations that list out action points on nuclear disarmament and security assurances. Most notably, the Subsidiary Body I identified the need for the United States and Russia to commit to negotiating a “successor framework” to the New START before its 2026 expiration. The draft report also includes a first-of-its-kind explicit commitment by NPT NWS and allies to reduce and eliminate nuclear weapons across national and collective security doctrines. Another key recommendation in the draft is the NPT state parties’ commitment to “submit regular reports on implementation of Article VI of the Treaty and of commitments made at previous Review Conferences.” One of the key issues of the draft report is the lack of concrete actionable points, barring the discussion on New START and a possible reporting mechanism. There are no measurable or concrete deliverables or timelines that emerged out of the RevCon and therefore, feed into the fundamental criticism made for previous RevCons on the lack of measurable outcomes due to no timelines for implementation of action points. Another criticism that has emerged is the misrepresentation of the role of civil society in the RevCon. It has been noted that civil society participation has remained close to negligible as a result of denied access to delegate meeting rooms as well as restrictions on speaking during main committee meetings and listening in on subsidiary body meetings.

Main Committee II on Non-Proliferation and Main Committee III on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy 

The Main Committee II on Non-Proliferation and Main Committee III on Peaceful Uses of Nuclear Energy draft reports highlight a key point of contention in the context of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which is the Russian seizure of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Powerplant (NPP) in Ukraine. NPT state parties have emphasised concerns over the risk of nuclear disaster because of the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP. The draft report calls for restoration of Ukrainian control of the NPP to ensure safety and security. As Russia has declared its disinterest in both, ending its occupation of the NPP or establishing a demilitarised zone around it, the situation pertaining to the Zaporizhzhia NPP remains precarious and has been highlighted by both Committees II and III as a point of contention.

Another key recommendation in the draft is the NPT state parties’ commitment to “submit regular reports on implementation of Article VI of the Treaty and of commitments made at previous Review Conferences.”

The Main Committee III and Subsidiary Body III has also called for efforts to “improve gender parity and to promote an inclusive workforce in the areas of peaceful uses of nuclear energy through sponsorship programs.” The draft report makes a noteworthy call to reference the role of women and highlights the importance of equality in the nuclear domain.

Takeaways from RevCon 2022 

Although, the 2022 RevCon acknowledged the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) in its draft report, there is a lack of acceptance of the TPNW or its norms and how they can interact with the NPT architecture. The draft reports of the main committees and subsidiary bodies do well to reiterate the importance of commitment to the key tenets of the NPT, such as reduction of nuclear weapons, complete and total disarmament, and peaceful uses of nuclear energy. However, the fundamental challenge remains the lack of urgency in addressing the rising nuclear threats as well as an absence of concrete timelines and action points.

NPT state parties have emphasised concerns over the risk of nuclear disaster because of the Russian occupation of the Zaporizhzhia NPP.

A key takeaway that emerges is the focus on the aspect of humanitarian consequences as well as actionable points such as the New START successor framework as well as the possible implementation of a reporting mechanism within the NPT. As the international security environment remains precarious, the primary concerns of NPT RevCon are its commitment to the concrete implementation of recommendations, addressing current major issues such as the humanitarian consequences of nuclear threats, and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The 10th RevCon takes place at a time when the international security context is unpredictable and the need for meaningful dialogue and subsequent concrete implementation of plans for the reduction of nuclear weapons and the path to disarmament is more relevant than ever.
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Author

Pulkit Mohan

Pulkit Mohan

Pulkit Mohan is the Head of Forums at ORF. She is responsible for the ideation curation and execution of ORFs flagship conferences. Her research focuses include ...

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