The 70-day old eyeball to eyeball confrontation between Indian and Chinese soldiers atop the cold, deserted Doklam plateau, claimed both by Bhutan and China, ended on 28th August with both sides agreeing to withdraw their soldiers to pre-crisis positions. The deadlock was precipitated when Chinese soldiers moved in with bulldozers and heavy earthmoving equipment to construct a road which would have provided them a highway access to the tri-junction between India, Bhutan and China. This would have significantly altered the status quo and provided a strategic advantage to China with adverse security implications for India. They were stopped in carrying out their activities by Indian soldiers on 16th June.
Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) on 28th August issued two statements, with the second one saying, "expeditious disengagement of border personnel of India and China at the face-off site at Doklam was ongoing" and "has been almost completed under verification".
Prior to the second statement, there was ambiguity over the issue, as China had initially said that Indian troops had withdrawn, and asserted that Chinese forces will continue to patrol the Doklam region.
The first statement by MEA, issued earlier the same day was somewhat unclear. But all doubts were cleared when the ministry came out with the second statement. On the question of road construction China has been trying to obfuscate the issue in order to save face in front of its domestic audience.
In hindsight it is obvious that the Chinese never expected such a resolute pushback by India. Since the territory is disputed between China and Bhutan, they would have presumed that they would be able to easily brush aside Bhutan's objections as they had done in the past. It must have felt that when big powers like USA and all 10 members of ASEAN were not able to stop it in constructing artificial islands and militarization of the South China Sea, it would not face any insurmountable opposition from Bhutan in constructing the road. Obviously China had failed to take the right measure of the political resolve of the Modi government to standby its treaty commitment with Bhutan and safeguard its territorial integrity and interests.
Chinese government controlled media including Global Times, Xinhua and others, as well as spokespersons of the foreign and defense ministries, went ballistic in condemning India and using offensive epithets to threaten India to withdraw or it will have to face fate far worse than the defeat of 1962.
India maintained all through the crisis that the issue could be solved only through dialogue. India also refrained from entering into a wrangling match with China. India's response was measured, balanced and sober.
The end result is a victory of diplomacy and maturity of both the countries. It had become quite clear from the beginning that in Doklam area, India occupied the heights and hence strategically was in a much advantageous position as compared to China. If China tried to attack India in that region, it would have suffered an embarrassing bloody nose. It was hence speculated that China might decide to attack in other segments of the 4,000 km long border between the two countries where it enjoyed strategic advantage. Several segments on the border exist where India enjoys the advantage. Indian forces could have moved in there to occupy territory under control of China. It must have become clear to China that there would be no clear, decisive winner and that loss of men and assets on both sides would be unacceptably large. It would also severely dent the image of the ‘’peaceful development’’ of China. Even if a military confrontation were to take place, as Sushma Swaraj, Minister of External Affairs said in her statement to the Rajya Sabha on 3rd August, the resolution of the issue would have to be arrived at through dialogue and diplomacy.
It is a matter of immense satisfaction that right sense prevailed in China to come to a resolution through discussions and diplomacy.
This is a huge political, diplomatic and moral victory for India. It will contribute to raising the stature of the country and of Prime Minister Modi even higher in the international community. The fact that the Indian government stayed steadfast and resolute and did not blink even in the face of extreme provocation, speaks volumes of the determined and decisive approach of the present government. The episode has significantly burnished the image of India as a responsible, decisive and reliable actor on the global scene.
China will have to recalibrate its approach to India. China might have felt that it can take actions in diverse fields to stymie the growth of India without itself having to face any consequences.
The tenacious and unswerving conduct of India appears to have unsettled China. So far China has been used to having its way either through cheque book diplomacy (bribing its way) or by issuing loud threats to its adversaries. Most of its opponents have succumbed to its threats. It was only India, who not only did not waver in its resolve and stood steadfast on its position, but also refused to play by the agenda of shrill, vicious propaganda unleashed by China.
The episode has contributed to further strengthen relations between India and Bhutan. It is to Bhutan’s credit that it stood steadfast through the long, tense standoff. The confident and unflinching manner in which India conducted itself and kept all channels of communication open with Bhutan would have been immensely reassuring for Bhutan. China has been trying for long to create fissures between India and Bhutan. It has used many blandishments and incentives to wean it away from India but has not been successful. This incident has contributed to further enhancing the trust level between the two countries and has put paid to China’s devious machinations.
The message to India’s neighborhood is also positive and reassuring. It will further enhance India’s stature and image of a reliable partner. It will enhance the resolve and resilience of some of China’s neighbours to stand up to China on issues of vital and critical importance for them.
The forthcoming BRICS Summit in Xiamen, China on 3-4 September has played a big role in the climb-down by China.
In its current trajectory to big power status, China wishes to project the image of a responsible world leader. If there was no satisfactory resolution of the Doklam issue, there was a real possibility that Modi might not attend the Summit. This would have been a huge blow to China’s prestige as the Summit would have had to be cancelled.
China would also have realized that it would become unsustainable for it to keep its forces in that area once snow and winter arrive in September.
This episode will give strength and reassurance to other countries in China’s neighborhood like South Korea, Vietnam, Japan, Indonesia, Philippines and others who have caved in or capitulated in the face of Chinese threats.
For consumption of its domestic audience, China has declared that Indian troops have withdrawn and that Chinese soldiers will continue to patrol in that area. It has not said anything about the construction of the road on the plateau. Moreover its heavy construction equipment, bulldozers etc have been removed from the area. The end result is that road construction which had emerged as the casus belli has been abandoned. Indian forces are present in Bhutan and are also stationed on heights in its own territory. They will continue to keep a vigil on the area and make sure that the road building activity does not commence in the coming months and years.
China’s international image has taken a beating particularly the manner in which it issued brazen threats and its officials and media used intemperate and offensive language. The episode has however revealed chinks in its armour which was projected as being impregnable. This incident has revealed that it has feet of clay. Recent developments would have sent out a clear message to China that it should not equate India with Pakistan. India has the stamina, resilience and wherewithal to stand up for its principles and to protect its interests and those of its partners. China would not have expected that India will move in to safeguard the interest of its small neighbor and put its budding relations with China at risk. China would have been disabused of its conception that it can ride roughshod over the interests of its small neighbors without any reprisal. The Chinese strategy of cowing India into submission would have been easier if India had responded in kind. India's silence coupled with its increasing military preparedness on the ground was evidence that India would not play the Chinese game.
Pakistan would have hoped that the faceoff will degenerate into a military conflict. This would have served its purpose eminently as it would have made India and China implacable foes of each other and would have weakened India. This would have provided Pakistan with more opportunities to carry out its invidious ploys.
Relationship between India and China has taken a heavy beating. It will take a very long time for India to get over the vicious invectives unleashed by a multitude of Chinese agencies and government officials against India.
Stronger economic and commercial partnership between the two countries can be a win-win scenario for both the countries if China removes or significantly reduces its non-tariff barriers against Indian products and services. The Doklam crisis can result in arresting and reversing the rapid growth in bilateral commercial relations. India’s trade deficit with China accounts for more than 50% of its global trade deficit. It is unsustainable. It has doubled from a figure of USD 30 billion in 2014 to USD 60 billion today. PM Modi has been very welcoming to Chinese business and industry but his moves and initiatives have not been reciprocated by China.
After this experience, India should not be complacent in strengthening its defense preparedness and improving infrastructure in the border areas. Several projects are in different stages of completion. They should all be put on fast track.
This crisis was one of the toughest and most demanding foreign policy challenges for India in recent times. India’s diplomatic skills as well as its commitment to its allies and neighbours on matters of sovereignty were put to rigorous test. While the crisis unfolded the world watched all the denouements with rapt attention. India was clear that if it capitulated, it would lose all credibility in its neighbourhood and in the ASEAN region where it is positioning itself not only as a major player but as a net security provider. By being firm India has demonstraed to its neighbours and friendly nations that they can count upon it in time of need.
The manner in which Indian diplomacy and its armed forces have conducted themselves is praiseworthy and commendable. This should induce confidence in the leadership and the people that with the right policies and clear vision and determination, India can hold its own against the strongest adversary.
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