Almost everyone will agree that we are living at an inflexion point in contemporary history, when one era gives way to another. There will also be general agreement that the certainties that marked the period after the collapse of the Soviet Union are at an end. The future holds a great deal of insecurity and turmoil, accentuated in great measure by the COVID-19 pandemic that has hit the world.
In these circumstances, the endorsement of India by an essentially old-world figure of Democratic party Presidential candidate, Joe Biden, is more than welcome. In his remarks to the Indian American community last week he said “I’ll continue, standing with India and confronting the threats it faces in its own region along its borders.” He may not have mentioned the eastern Ladakh face-off, by name but his general support for India’s position on the borders is reassuring and could also introduce a new nuance to American policy if he gets elected as the next President of America in November.
Through an October 27 1962 statement the US recognized the McMahon Line as the international border, but it has never taken a clear-cut position in support of India’s Jammu & Kashmir borders. An endorsement of the Indian position along the current Line of Actual Control (LAC) would be a major step forward in India-US relations. The reason why the statement is also significant is Biden’s record as a Senator, especially in the various periods when he was the Chairman of the powerful Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) in the 2000s.
As Chairman of the Committee in August 2001 he wrote a letter to President George W Bush calling for the removal of the Pokhran test related sanctions on India. Essentially, as an opposition figure, he was expressing his support for the Administration’s decision to undertake a major shift in the US position towards India. At the time Senator Biden had emphasised that his support to India was not to play it off against China “There are all kinds of reasons to treat them as they are — a great nation.” In an interview to an Indian American weekly in 2006 Biden , who shortly thereafter became the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee for the last time, said “My dream is that in 2020 the two closest nations in the world will be India and United States. If that occurs, the world will be safer.”
At the time, on the eve of the culmination of the Indo-US nuclear deal, he had emphasized the need to overcome the “decades of mistrust and suspicion” between India and United States, and added that “This is the single most important relationship that we have to get right for our own safety’s sake.”
As India and the US moved towards the historic nuclear deal, Biden emerged as its major supporter, even though in the opposition. He was known for his liberal internationalism and bipartisanship and using his position as the top Democrat in the Foreign Relations Committee , he played a major role in getting the Hyde Act approved by the Senate by a huge margin of 85 to 12. Though he got most Democrats to vote for the measure, all of those who voted “nay” were his fellow Democrats. This was the crucial bill sponsored by Rep Henry J Hyde, to exempt India from key requirements of the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, an action that enabled the deal.
According to Foreign Policy, Biden has already assembled a formidable informal team of advisers for his campaign. There is little doubt that the principal goal of a Biden foreign policy would be to roll back some of President Donald Trump’s more controversial foreign policy ventures. This team comprises of some 49 working groups who interact with a larger foreign policy community. According to the report, two former State Department officials, Sumona Guha and Tom West, lead the working group on South Asia. Guha is currently a Vice President with the Albright Stonebridge Group and West an associate vice president with the Cohen group.
Observers have noticed that of all the potential vice-presidential candidates who were considered, Kamala Harris’ foreign policy views were closest to those of Biden. This is underscored by an analysis of her Senate record, her responses as Presidential candidate, and debate remarks. Whether it is on the issue of the importance of alliance and partnerships, or promotion of human rights and democratic values, her views are almost identical to those of Biden. However, given the fact that Biden is a far more experienced foreign policy hand, Harris is likely to defer to him on foreign policy. But then, the latter had long working experience and presumably interest in foreign policy. She is a strong personality, but may choose to focus her attention on pressing domestic issues.
Meanwhile, according to one report, Kamala Harris has appointed an Indian American, Sabrina Singh, as her press secretary. Singh has a distinguished lineage as the granddaughter of J. J. Singh who headed the India League for America that emerged as the representative organisation for Indians in the US in the 1940s. The ILA not only fought for the rights of Indians in the US, but also became the most important advocates of India’s freedom struggle.
What will a Biden-Harris Presidency mean for the world ? Politically, it will be a centre-left force with an internationalist outlook. As Josh Rogin has observed, even though it may not enthuse all the Democrats, the Biden-Harris world view would revert to the era of “a strong America leading a strong multilateral system.”
In other words, besides confronting Russia and China vigorously, the US would also re-invest in its leadership of its allies, as well as multilateral organisations, which would mean the support to WHO, the Paris Climate Change Agreement and possibly even a re-entry into the Trans Pacific Partnership.
What could this mean for India? Definitely, relations will be different from the Trump period which was characterised by eccentric ups and downs. There was a lot of positive rhetoric, periods in which Modi maintained a wary distance from Trump and others where the two hugged each other. There has been a lot of pressure on India in the trade front and the Trump Administration’s orientation on terrorism is not entirely to India’s liking. After coming out hard against Pakistan, the US under Trump reverted to the more neutral position on issues between India and Pakistan and even wanted to mediate in the Kashmir dispute. Besides being put through the wringer on trade with Iran, New Delhi had to handle the issue of importing S-400 from Russia as well.
Democrats are always big on human rights and Biden has not hesitated to criticise Saudi Arabia for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi, or pushing against China on the issue of Uighur internment. Harris as Senator has also voted for blocking arms sales to the Saudis and an end to US support for its Yemen war. So, India is not likely to get the free ride it has on account of its lockdown of Jammu & Kashmir and other issues like the CAA act.
With Biden and Harris’s inclination towards muscular liberalism, we can see continued pressure on China on the issue of human rights, as well as its actions in South China Sea. Biden is likely to make up for the mistake of the Obama Administration in not taking a tough line on China on the issue of the South China Sea or IP theft. But if India plays its cards well it can be the beneficiary of what is bound to be an inevitable fraying of US-China relations.
But if Biden’s political instincts prevail, we can see a different trajectory to the process. Instead of one which is approaching war, we may see a coordinated effort of the US, EU and Japan, along with countries like India and Australia, to read China the riot act. All said and done the US and EU economies alone are three times the size of China. And Beijing does not even come close to the military capacity of the United States. Given a chance, such a policy could get China to clean up its act. And India, if it can get its act together, can be the beneficiary.
The views expressed above belong to the author(s). ORF research and analyses now available on Telegram! Click here to access our curated content — blogs, longforms and interviews.
Manoj Joshi is a Distinguished Fellow at the ORF. He has been a journalist specialising on national and international politics and is a commentator and ...
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