China’s growing footprint in Southeast Asia, the Pacific and Indian Ocean has prompted closer cooperation between the Quad and organisations such as ASEAN, PIF, and IORA
After news surfaced of the Quad Leaders’ Meeting in Sydney being cancelled, the Quad leaders met in Hiroshima, Japan on 20 May 2023, on the sidelines of the G7 meeting instead. The primary aim of the Quad is to ensure peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad is mostly seen as a grouping dealing with a growing Chinese threat in the region, though the statements and remarks made by the leaders of the four countries are made in a way that points at Chinese expansionist activities without directly calling out China. This Quad meeting was no different in this regard. The joint statement does show a subtle swipe being taken at China, “We strongly oppose destabilising or unilateral actions that seek to change the status quo by force or coercion. We express serious concern at the militarisation of disputed features, the dangerous use of coastguard and maritime militia vessels, and efforts to disrupt other countries’ offshore resource exploitation activities.”
There were many other statements released at the end of this Quad meeting besides the joint statement. There was a vision statement, and statements on issues impacting the geostrategic climate of the Indo-Pacific such as cybersecurity, critical and emerging technology, and clean energy supply chains. These statements not only reflect the seriousness of the four Quad countries towards these issues, but they also show the progress that has been made by the working groups created to deal with these subjects during previous Quad meetings. With every meeting, the agenda and the gamut of subjects covered by the Quad have expanded.
The Quad is mostly seen as a grouping dealing with a growing Chinese threat in the region, though the statements and remarks made by the leaders of the four countries are made in a way that points at Chinese expansionist activities without directly calling out China.This time, the joint statement and the vision statement show additional focus on organisations such as the ASEAN, Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), and the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA). Though ASEAN and the need to uphold ASEAN centrality always find a mention in these statements, they appear more as a formality as nothing concrete has been put out with regards to how the Quad countries can do more in the Southeast Asian region and involve the ASEAN more. But, this time, some concrete initiatives have been laid out and the focus has also broadened to include the PIF and the IORA.
A new initiative has been announced, ‘Quad Partnership for Cable Connectivity and Resilience,’ the purpose of which is to “strengthen cable systems in the Indo-Pacific, drawing on Quad countries’ world-class expertise in manufacturing, delivering and maintaining cable infrastructure”.Boosting cooperation and influence in the Indian Ocean Region is also a commitment that the Quad wants to be looking into, especially in helping India take the lead and implement the IORA Outlook on the Indo-Pacific.
How Chinese Belt and Road Initiative projects have benefitted countries like Cambodia is also surfacing as many Chinese-led projects are nearing the completion phase.Besides Southeast Asia, China’s influence has been growing in the South Pacific as well. For instance, in 2022, the Solomon Islands signed a security pact with China, and there have been visits by the Chinese Foreign Minister to Fiji, Kiribati, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, Papua New Guinea and Timor-Leste. In 2022, the Chinese Foreign Minister also hosted a meeting of Pacific Island foreign ministers in Suva. The South Pacific is not only Australia’s backyard, but the US has also maintained influence and military presence in this region. After the growing Chinese presence, both the US and Australia are upping their game in the region. According to a poll conducted by the Lowy Institute in 2022, “Australia has also overtaken China as the leading source of bilateral loans to the Pacific.” The US has also ramped up its diplomacy in this region, though President Biden calling off his visit to Papua New Guinea at the last moment might have hurt the US’ Pacific diplomacy. India, too, is looking to grow its presence in the Pacific islands; Prime Minister Modi’s latest visit to Papua New Guinea—the first by any Indian leader—is all reflective of this. To become a truly Indo-Pacific player, India needs to ramp up its presence in the Pacific as well. The Indian Ocean Region is not only India’s primary theatre of interest but we are also seeing Australia refurbishing its presence and diplomacy in the Indian Ocean Region. For instance, recently, Australia has stated that it will gift an air force aircraft to enhance Sri Lanka’s sovereign aerial maritime surveillance capability, following India’s example to expand security ties with the island nation as part of its Indian Ocean outreach. In the 2020 Defence Strategic Update and also in the 2023 Defence Strategic Update, the northeast Indian Ocean, along with Southeast Asia and the Pacific, were cited as the three priority areas surrounding Australia as part of its Indo-Pacific policy. The Indo-Pacific, Southeast Asia, the Pacific Islands, and the Indian Ocean Region are indeed theatres where not only great power competition will take place but also the scramble for middle power diplomacy and influence.
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Premesha Saha is a Fellow with ORF’s Strategic Studies Programme. Her research focuses on Southeast Asia, East Asia, Oceania and the emerging dynamics of the ...
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