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The convergence of peak tourist seasons and monsoon hazards is causing dangerous ‘temporal compression’ in the Himalayas — intensifying ecological stress, amplifying disaster risks, and exposing the urgent need for climate-sensitive tourism and infrastructure planning.
Image Source: Getty Images
The snow-capped peaks and glaciers of the Himalayas feed mighty rivers. Its valleys have nurtured civilisations in the Indo-Gangetic Plain and the Tibetan Plateau. Today, the Himalayan region has evolved into a hotspot for leisure and religious tourism. Tourist footfall has increased from 100 million in 2018 to approximately 240 million today, contributing up to 15 percent of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of several states, as well as the Union Territory of Jammu and Kashmir.
This tourism boom has also created an ecological crisis. The hills accumulate 50,000 metric tonnes of waste annually. Popular destinations have experienced a steady decline in forest cover, resulting in groundwater depletion. Haphazard infrastructure development to sustain the surge in tourism has made the fragile ecosystem susceptible to Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs) and landslides.
Built for average annual averages rather than seasonal surges when hotels and roads are at full capacity, the infrastructure faces its greatest pressure precisely when heavy rains make the terrain most vulnerable.
However, the evolving pattern of disasters not only reveals the extent of the climate and development crisis but also its timing. The convergence of monsoon and an uncontrolled tourist influx within a narrow window is causing ‘temporal compression,’ further stressing the fragile ecosystem and vulnerable infrastructure, turning hazards into catastrophic events.
Temporal compression is caused by simultaneous high-intensity activities, amplifying existing pressures on socio-ecological systems. This phenomenon is particularly evident in the Himalayas, where the peak tourist season coincides with the monsoon, overwhelming their carrying capacity and increasing the risk of disasters. Built for average annual averages rather than seasonal surges when hotels and roads are at full capacity, the infrastructure faces its greatest pressure precisely when heavy rains make the terrain most vulnerable.
Table 1: Tourist Influx Overlapping with Monsoon Hazards
Source: Compiled by the authors from various media reports
These disasters strike with a predictable regularity during the peak tourist season since the 2013 Kedarnath cloudburst that killed more than 6,000 people during the Char Dham Yatra.
Visitor flows were staggered previously. However, the ease of access provided by expanded road networks built by cutting hills, helicopter services, and online booking now compress millions into a few months, creating a concentrated cluster of risk.
The generation of jobs and revenue from tourism forms the economic backbone of these states. Hotels, homestays, and resorts sustain local economies, including handicrafts and transportation. Consequently, economic priorities override ecological considerations. A daily limit of 47,500 pilgrims for the Char Dham Yatra in 2023 was withdrawn following protests. Investments continue to flow into tourism infrastructure while policies on resilient development and disaster preparedness remain largely aspirational, with weak on-ground implementation, including poor enforcement of the Forest Rights Act, which recognises the right to livelihood and occupation of the forest lands by indigenous tribes.
Visitor flows were staggered previously. However, the ease of access provided by expanded road networks built by cutting hills, helicopter services, and online booking now compress millions into a few months, creating a concentrated cluster of risk.
Thus, the infrastructure meant to enhance travellers’ safety and comfort along pilgrimage routes, temple towns, and high-altitude destinations contributes most to their vulnerability.
Besides increased tourist influx, several towns, including Shimla, Gangtok, and Darjeeling, are stressed by rapid urbanisation. Hotels and other tourist infrastructure built on slopes, cutting hillslopes to widen roads to accommodate more people and vehicles, digging tunnels, and constructing hydroelectric reservoirs amplify disaster risks. However, despite their known perils, projects continue to proliferate without the critical checks and balances in ecologically sensitive zones. For example, agencies often treat the critical pre-project environmental impact assessment (EIA) as a formality, sidelining robust scientific analysis, especially for climate change impact assessment, to secure environmental clearances.
EIAs still rely on obsolete social and environmental baseline data from a more stable climate era, when glaciers were more stable, rainfall was less erratic, and local communities were less exposed to tourism pressure, diluting their contemporary relevance. Most EIAs consider projects in isolation, without assessing the compounded impacts of multiple projects within a narrow geography, as in Sikkim’s Teesta River basin and Uttarakhand’s Char Dham road project.
The process is also often exclusionary, disregarding the local communities’ concerns and traditional knowledge of the environment. The Ministry of Environment, Forests, and Climate Change had to withdraw its 2020 draft EIA notification following widespread criticism that it was pro-industry.
Introducing transparent permits for pilgrimage, adventure, and leisure activities, with fixed daily quotas, is crucial. States must coordinate on data sharing, disaster management, and environmental assessments, supported by stronger municipal finances.
Investments in technology and innovations can mitigate risks to human life. Early warning systems, Doppler radars for rainfall prediction, river sensors for flash flood alerts, and communication systems with real-time data and surveillance must be deployed across vulnerable zones. Integrating these technologies with online booking systems can help regulate visitor density.
International models offer valuable lessons. Peru caps daily peak-season visitors to Machu Picchu at 5,600, with strict time limits. Iceland’s Safe Travel app informs visitors about road conditions, weather and emergencies, with colour-coded zoning. India’s Himalayan states must adopt similar systems, including digital booking platforms with visitor caps, real-time density maps, and safety alerts, while promoting off-season tourism.
Besides increased tourist influx, several towns, including Shimla, Gangtok, and Darjeeling, are stressed by rapid urbanisation. Hotels and other tourist infrastructure built on slopes, cutting hillslopes to widen roads to accommodate more people and vehicles, digging tunnels, and constructing hydroelectric reservoirs amplify disaster risks.
New impact assessment protocols must mandate combining satellite monitoring, climate risk evaluation, and updated baseline socio-economic data. In 2024, the Supreme Court of India prohibited retrospective environmental clearances for development projects; however, this ruling demands strict legal oversight by an independent body to ensure compliance. Establishing a Mountain Cities Regulatory Authority (MCRA), chaired by a retired Supreme Court judge, with multi-sectoral representation from state disaster management authorities, the National Green Tribunal, urban development and tourism departments, forest and environment ministries, climate experts, and civil society organisations, including women and indigenous groups, can address this gap. MCRA must be empowered to approve, suspend, or reject projects based on cumulative environmental risk; establish disaster-resilient infrastructure standards; enforce visitor and vehicle caps through digital platforms; and coordinate inter-departmental responses during emergencies. It must also help local bodies to create a dedicated Mountain Resilience Fund sourced from tourism levies and green bonds.
Bhutan provides a model for balancing tourism and conservation through its low-impact tourism practices. A Sustainable Development Fee (SDF) collected from visitors is utilised transparently for conservation and community initiatives. It enforces strict visitor rules to safeguard cultural and environmental integrity. India’s Himalayan states must adopt this approach, encouraging visitors to respect traditions, minimise waste, and support local livelihoods.
Local communities must be empowered as environmental stewards by providing alternative livelihood systems linked to ecological preservation rather than extraction. Governments must incentivise communities through Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) to preserve natural ecosystems. They must also consider climate-linked microfinance for green enterprises, and incentivise waste segregation, organic farming, renewable energy, and climate-responsible homestays. Community-managed trekking routes, parking zones, and waste collection systems can ensure greater environmental compliance while also generating economic benefits.
Governments must also enforce periodic closures of ecologically sensitive areas to allow the ecosystem to recover and enable local authorities to conduct maintenance without the pressure of tourists. Protecting the alpine ecosystem will, in turn, foster sustainable tourism.
To reduce long-term risks, economic dependence on tourism must be balanced with climate-resilient strategies. Promoting eco- and heritage tourism, regulated homestays, supporting local arts and crafts, and adopting renewable energy can foster sustainable livelihoods. Periodic consultations among governments, disaster authorities, temple trusts, hoteliers, tourists, and residents can raise awareness of how unbridled tourism contributes to disasters, support the transition to sustainable livelihoods, and help implement visitor caps and periodic closures.
Instead of asking how many tourists or pilgrims the mountains can host annually, the more urgent question is: how can the influx be distributed to lessen the ecological impact?
Policymakers must weigh the short-term benefits of tourism against the long-term costs of disasters to build resilient mountain economies. Unless development and pilgrimage calendars adapt to the changing climatic rhythms, the mountains will witness catastrophes stemming from avoidable temporal compression.
Dhaval Desai is a Senior Fellow and Vice President at the Observer Research Foundation.
Sahil Kapoor is an Intern with the Urban Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation.
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Dhaval is Senior Fellow and Vice President at Observer Research Foundation, Mumbai. His spectrum of work covers diverse topics ranging from urban renewal to international ...
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Sahil Kapoor is an Intern with the Urban Studies Programme at the Observer Research Foundation. ...
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